by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2012 02:43:00 PM

From Andrew Ross at the San Francisco Chronicle: Hot 'spec' deal 1st in S.F. since recession began

It's not every day that a parking lot goes for $41 million. In cash.
...
Late last week, New York's Tishman Speyer Properties closed escrow on the space, which, by the end of next year will be transformed into a 10-story, 286,000-square-foot office building ...

Two distinguishing aspects of the deal: It's the first "spec development" (i.e. built from the ground up with no signed tenants) in the city since the onset of the recession in 2007, and no debt financing is involved. The land, architectural plans and construction costs - the latter estimated between $180 million and $185 million - is "funded with all equity," said [Allen Palmer, managing director at Tishman Speyer's San Francisco office].

Last week Reis reported that the office vacancy rate (major markets) declined slightly to 17.2% in Q1 from 17.3% in Q4 2011. Reis noted:

Weak supply growth remains a tailwind for improvement in the office sector. During the first quarter of 2012 only 1.917 million square feet of office space were completed [in the markets Reis tracks]. This represents the lowest quarterly level on record since Reis began tracking quarterly market data in 1999.

There has been some new construction here and there (like the PIMCO tower in Newport Beach), but very little spec building. And this building in San Francisco is being built with no financing.

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2012 10:20:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings in February was 3.5 million, little changed from January. Although the number of job openings remained below the 4.3 million openings when the recession began in December 2007, the number of job openings has increased 46 percent since the end of the recession in June 2009.
...
In February, the hires rate was essentially unchanged at 3.3 percent
for total nonfarm. ... The quits rate can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to change jobs. In February, the quits rate was little changed for total nonfarm, total private, and government. The
number of quits rose to 2.1 million in February from 1.8 million at the end of the recession in June 2009, although it remained below the 2.9 million recorded when the recession began in December 2007.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for February, the most recent employment report was for March.

Click on graph for larger image.

Notice that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings increased slightly in February, and the number of job openings (yellow) has generally been trending up, and are up about 16% year-over-year compared to February 2011.

Quits increased in February, and quits are now up about 9% year-over-year and quits are now at the highest level since 2008. These are voluntary separations and more quits might indicate some improvement in the labor market. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").
All current employment graphs

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2012 09:33:00 AM

UPDATE: Here are DeMarco's Remarks as Prepared for Delivery (with table and figures)
Some key comments on "strategic modifiers":

As I have noted the NPV results alone are not the sole basis for the decision on whether the Enterprises should pursue principal forgiveness. One factor that needs to be considered is the borrower incentive effects. That means, will some percentage of borrowers who are current on their loans, be encouraged to either claim a hardship or actually go delinquent to capture the benefits of principal forgiveness?

This is a particular concern for the Enterprises because unlike other mortgage market participants that can pick and choose where principal forgiveness makes sense, the Enterprises must develop the program to be implemented by more than one thousand seller/servicers. In addition, the Enterprises will have to publicly announce this program and borrower awareness of the possibility of receiving a principal reduction modification will be heightened among Enterprise borrowers. So as opposed to more targeted individual efforts, or the current opacity of the HAMP process, there is a greater possibility that borrower incentive effects would take place on an Enterprise-wide principal forgiveness program.

It is difficult to model these borrower incentive effects with any precision. What we can do is give a sense of how many current borrowers would have to become “strategic modifiers” for the NPV economic benefit provided by the HAMP triple PRA incentives to be eliminated. In this context, a “strategic modifier” would be a borrower that either claims a financial hardship or misses two consecutive mortgage payments in order to attempt to qualify for HAMP and a principal forgiveness modification.

Here is the webcast for the Speech by FHFA acting director Edward DeMarco: "Addressing the Weak Housing Market: Is Principal Reduction the Answer?" at the The Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave., NW Washington, DC.

Following the speech, there will be a discussion including
Moderator: Ted Gayer, Brookings Co-Director, Economic Studies

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist, CoreLogic

Paul Nikodem, Executive Director, Head of Mortgage Credit Research, Nomura Securities International

Anthony B. Sanders, Professor, George Mason University

Andrew Jakabovics, Senior Director, Policy Development and Research, Enterprise Community Partners, Inc.

by Calculated Risk on 4/10/2012 08:39:00 AM

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): After Six Months of Increases, Small-Business Optimism Drops For Main Street, No New Jobs in the Months to Come

After six months of gains, the Small-Business Optimism Index fell by almost 2 points in March, settling at 92.5. After a promising start to the year, nine of ten index components dropped last month, most notably hiring plans and expected real sales growth each taking a significant dive, in spite of owners reporting the largest increase in new jobs per firm in a year.
...
Job creation in March was the bright spot in this month’s Index; the net change in employment per firm seasonally adjusted was 0.22, far above January’s “0” reading.
...
A lack of sales remains a problem for owners with 22 percent reporting “poor sales” as their top business problem.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index declined to 92.5 in March from 94.3 in February. This is slightly above the 91.9 reported in March 2011.

This index remains low - probably due to a combination of sluggish growth, and the high concentration of real estate related companies in the index. And the single most important problem remains "poor sales".

by Calculated Risk on 4/09/2012 07:40:00 PM

From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: Fostering Financial Stability. A few excerpts on shadow banking:

I've outlined a number of ongoing efforts, both domestic and international, to bring the shadow banking system into the sunlight, so to speak, and to impose tougher standards on systemically important financial firms. But even as we make progress on known vulnerabilities, we must be mindful that our financial system is constantly evolving, and that unanticipated risks to stability will develop over time. Indeed, an inevitable side effect of new regulations is that the system will adapt in ways that push risk-taking from more-regulated to less-regulated areas, increasing the need for careful monitoring and supervision of the system as a whole.
...
Unfortunately, data on the shadow banking sector, by its nature, can be more difficult to obtain. Thus, we have to be more creative to monitor risk in this important area. We look at broad indicators of risk to the financial system, such as measures of risk premiums, asset valuations, and market functioning. We try to gauge the risk of runs by looking at indicators of leverage (both on and off balance sheet) and tracking short-term wholesale funding markets, especially for evidence of maturity mismatches between assets and liabilities. We are also developing new sources of information to improve the monitoring of leverage. For example, in 2010, we began a quarterly survey on dealer financing (the Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms) that collects information on the leverage that dealers provide to financial market participants in the repo and over-the-counter derivatives markets. In addition, we are working with other agencies to create a comprehensive set of regulatory data on hedge funds and private equity firms.

And his conclusion:

In the decades prior to the financial crisis, financial stability policy tended to be overshadowed by monetary policy, which had come to be viewed as the principal function of central banks. In the aftermath of the crisis, however, financial stability policy has taken on greater prominence and is now generally considered to stand on an equal footing with monetary policy as a critical responsibility of central banks. We have spent decades building and refining the infrastructure for conducting monetary policy. And although we have done much in a short time to improve our understanding of systemic risk and to incorporate a macroprudential perspective into supervision, our framework for conducting financial stability policy is not yet at the same level. Continuing to develop an effective set of macroprudential policy indicators and tools, while pursuing essential reforms to the financial system, is critical to preserving financial stability and supporting the U.S. economy.

Before the crisis, oversight and financial stability were not emphasized. Now the regulators are paying attention; hopefully, even after financial conditions finally recovers, regulators will remain vigilant (but I expect they will become complacent again).