by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2012 07:17:00 PM

This will be another busy week in Europe. Germany and Finland will vote on the new Greek bailout, the ECB will conduct the second LTRO, and EU leaders will meet in Brussels at the end of the week.

Feb 27th: Germany's Bundestag votes on Greek Bailout deal.
Feb 29th: ECB three year Long Term Refinancing Operation (LTRO)
Feb 29th: Finland lawmakers vote on Greek Bailout deal.

March 1st and 2nd: EU leaders meet in Brussels.
March 8th: €200bn private sector bond swap is scheduled. From the Financial Times Alphaville: A special invitation from the Hellenic Republic ... "The invitation will expire at 9:00 P.M. (C.E.T.) on 8 March 2012, unless extended, re-opened, amended or terminated ..."
March 8th: ECB holds rate meeting
March 12th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Brussels
March 20th: €14.4bn of Greek bonds scheduled to mature.
March 30th: Euro-area finance ministers meet in Copenhagen.

Late April: Proposed date for Greek general election.
April 22nd: France election.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending February 24th
• Schedule for Week of February 26th

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2012 02:03:00 PM

Last week the Census Bureau released the placements of manufactured homes in December and for all of 2011. Placements were at 3.4 thousand in December, and at a record low of 46.0 thousand for all of 2011.

Although the manufactured home data only goes back to 1980, it is pretty clear that total housing completions (single and multi-family) and manufactured home placements were at record low levels since at least the early '60s. Here is a table of the worst years on record:

Worst Years for Housing Completions and Placements
Year	Total Completions (000s)
2011	631.2
2010	701.6
2009	848.9
2008	1,200.2
1982	1,239.4
1991	1,265.3

Unfortunately there is no timely count of household formation, so it is hard to tell how quickly the excess supply of housing is being absorbed.

Note: Household formation is a function of changes in population, and also of changes in household size. During the '70s, the baby boomers started moving out of their parents' homes, and there was a dramatic decrease in the number of persons per household and that led to a huge demand for apartments. We can't directly compare the level of total completions in the '00s to the '70s or '80s - we need to know the number of households being formed.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows total housing completions and placements since 1980. The net additional to the housing stock is less because of demolitions and destruction of housing units.

Although we don't know the exact number, it is pretty clear that there are more households being formed than housing units completed last year - and the excess supply is being absorbed.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending February 24th
• Schedule for Week of February 26th

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2012 09:18:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 24, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, the FDIC released its enforcement actions for January 2012 this Friday. Moreover, after playing footsie with community bankers last week as part of an effort to stem proposed Congressional action to broaden the examination appeal process, the FDIC got back to closing a couple this week. The release of these actions and closings contributed to many changes in the Unofficial Problem Bank List. In all, this week there were four removals and eight additions, which leave the list at 960 institutions with assets of $389.7 billion. A year ago, the list held also held 960 institutions but assets were higher at $413.8 billion.

With this being the last Friday of the month, it is time to review changes for the month. After experiencing declines in the number of institutions each month since July 2011, the list count increased by four institutions during February 2012. While the increase in assets of $649 million during the month was small, it was the first increase in total assets since October 2011. Other interesting factoids include the absence of any unassisted mergers during the month, which has not happened since November 2010; and the monthly additions of 16 are the highest since 18 institutions were added in October 2011.

Removals this week include two rehabilitations -- Ridgestone Bank, Brookfield, WI ($423 million) and Fireside Bank, Pleasanton, CA ($278 million Ticker: KMPR); and two failures -- Home Savings of America, Little Falls, MN ($440 million) and Central Bank of Georgia, Ellaville, GA ($276 million).

Among the eight additions are Britton & Koontz Bank, N.A., Natchez, MS ($371 million Ticker: BKBK); Crown Bank, Edina, MN ($258 million); Rabun County Bank, Clayton, GA ($248 million); and Farmers & Merchants Bank, Statesboro, GA ($231 million). After 76 failures, inclusive of the one tonight, many might think there are not any banks left in Georgia to turn bad.

Other changes to the list include the FDIC issuing Prompt Corrective Action orders against 1st Commerce Bank, North Las Vegas, NV ($32 million); First Carolina State Bank, Rocky Mount, NC ($90 million); Pisgah Community Bank, Asheville, NC ($30 million); Sunrise Bank, Valdosta, GA ($86 million); and Sunrise Bank of Albuquerque, Albuquerque, NM ($61 million). All five banks are controlled by Capitol Bancorp, Ltd., which has divested or merged 45 institutions that were under its control during the crisis. Capitol has pending sale agreements for two of the banks just issued PCA orders. Should any bank controlled by Capitol fail, the other 18 banks controlled by Capitol could be liable for the resolution cost should the FDIC decide to apply cross guaranty. The FDIC did not apply cross guaranty to Capitol back in November 2009, when Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida failed, which cost the FDIC insurance fund approximately $31 million.

Next week, the FDIC will likely release its quarterly financial performance report for the fourth quarter of 2010, which will include an update on the Official Problem Bank List figures.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the cumulative bank failures for each year starting in 2008. There have been 425 bank failures since the beginning of 2008, and so far, closings this year are running at about half the rate of 2010.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending February 24th
• Schedule for Week of February 26th

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2012 06:44:00 PM

In Feb 2010, Warren Buffett wrote:

[W]ithin a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.

Of course I disagreed with his timing.

Then in Feb 2011, Buffett wrote:

A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point.

As I noted last year, the key word was "begin" and sure enough - based on housing starts and new home sales - it appears a modest recovery has begun.

Today Buffett wrote:

Last year, I told you that “a housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so.” I was dead wrong.

Really? And I was going to give him a little credit this time. Oh well.

More from Buffett:

Housing will come back – you can be sure of that. Over time, the number of housing units necessarily matches the number of households (after allowing for a normal level of vacancies). For a period of years prior to 2008, however, America added more housing units than households. Inevitably, we ended up with far too many units and the bubble popped with a violence that shook the entire economy. That created still another problem for housing: Early in a recession, household formations slow, and in 2009 the decrease was dramatic.

That devastating supply/demand equation is now reversed: Every day we are creating more households than housing units. People may postpone hitching up during uncertain times, but eventually hormones take over. And while “doubling-up” may be the initial reaction of some during a recession, living with in-laws can quickly lose its allure.

At our current annual pace of 600,000 housing starts – considerably less than the number of new households being formed – buyers and renters are sopping up what’s left of the old oversupply. (This process will run its course at different rates around the country; the supply-demand situation varies widely by locale.) While this healing takes place, however, our housing-related companies sputter, employing only 43,315 people compared to 58,769 in 2006. This hugely important sector of the economy, which includes not only construction but everything that feeds off of it, remains in a depression of its own. I believe this is the major reason a recovery in employment has so severely lagged the steady and substantial comeback we have seen in almost all other sectors of our economy.

Buffett makes several key points:
1) Housing completions have been at record lows.
2) There are currently more households being formed than new housing units completed, and this is decreasing the excess supply.
3) The excess supply will be "sopped up" at different rates across the country.
4) Housing is a key reason for the sluggish economy (not the only reason).

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending February 24th
• Schedule for Week of February 26th

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2012 01:15:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending February 24th

The key reports this week are the January Personal Income and Outlays report, and the ISM Manufacturing survey - both will be released on Thursday. Other key reports include the Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, vehicle sales on Thursday, and the second estimate of Q4 GDP on Wednesday.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke provides the Fed's Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House and Senate respectively.

NOTES: The February employment report will be released the following week on Friday March 9th. Also both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to report results this week.

----- Monday, Feb 27th-----
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for February. The consensus is for 15.0 for the general business activity index, down slightly from from 15.3 in January.

11:00 AM: New York Fed to release Q4 2011 Report on Household Debt and Credit

----- Tuesday, Feb 28th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.0% decrease in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. Although this is the December report, it is really a 3 month average of October, November and December.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 0.7% decrease in prices (NSA) in December. I expect these indexes to be at new post-bubble lows, both seasonally adjusted (SA) and not seasonally adjusted (NSA). The CoreLogic index declined 1.4% decrease in December (NSA).

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for February. The consensus is for an increase to 64.0 from 61.1 last month.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. The consensus is for an increase to 13 for this survey from 12 in January (above zero is expansion). This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for February, and the other surveys have indicated stronger expansion in February.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Governor Elizabeth A. Duke, "The Housing Market", Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate

----- Wednesday, Feb 29th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been weak this year, although this does not include all the cash buyers.

8:30 AM: Q4 GDP (advance release). This is the second estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.8% annualized in Q4 (same as advance estimate).

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The Red column is the advance estimate for Q4 GDP.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for February. The consensus is for an increase to 61.0, up from 60.2 in January.

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Financial Services, U.S. House of Representatives

2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, Mar 1st-----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for an increase to 355,000 from 351,000 last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income in January, and a 0.4% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in construction spending.

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for February.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The consensus is for a slight increase to 54.6 from 54.1 in January.

All day: Light vehicle sales for February. Light vehicle sales are expected to decline slightly to 14.0 million from 14.13 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the January sales rate.

TrueCar is forecasting:

The February 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 14.3 million new car sales, up from 13.3 million in February 2011 and up from 14.2 million in January 2012

10:00 AM: Testimony, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate (repeat of previous day testimony).

----- Friday, Mar 2nd -----
No Releases Scheduled.