by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2012 04:54:00 PM

As was widely rumored, Standard & Poor's lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on France to AA+ and Spain to A.

From CNBC: S&P Downgrades Credit Ratings on Nine Euro Zone Nations, Including France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Austria

The Greek debt talks are more important. From Bloomberg: Greece Creditors Break Off Debt Talks

Greece’s creditor banks broke off talks after failing to agree with the government about how much money investors will lose by swapping their bonds, increasing the risk of the euro-area’s first sovereign default.

Proposals by a committee representing financial firms haven’t produced a “constructive consolidated response by all parties,” the Washington-based Institute of International Finance said in a statement today. Talks with Greece and the official sector are “paused for reflection on the benefits of a voluntary approach,” the group said.

A few of key dates this month:
Jan 20th: The "troika" discussions with Greece are set to conclude.
Jan 24th: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels.
Jan 30th: European Union leaders meet in Brussels on crisis.

Meanwhile the Italian 10 year yield is up to 6.64%, and the Spanish 10 year yield is up to 5.22%.

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2012 01:49:00 PM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 0.2 Percent in December

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index® (PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 0.2 percent in December following the 0.1 percent increase in November and the 1.1 percent increase in October.

Although December’s news is positive, the combined effect of the three consecutive positive months was not enough to offset the weakness of trucking last summer and the PCI in December 2011 is 1.2 percent below its June 2011 level.
...
Based on the latest PCI data, the forecast for December Industrial Production is a 0.29 percent increase when the government estimate is released on January 18.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index declined sharply in late summer and has only partially rebounded over the last three months. Mostly this index moved sideways in 2011 (down 0.7% from December 2010).

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).



All current Transportation graphs

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2012 11:39:00 AM

From the Financial Times: Eurozone nations face S&P downgrade

Eurozone governments are bracing ... after Standard & Poor’s, the rating agency, told them it would downgrade two of the eurozone’s six triple A nations.

One official told the Financial Times that France and Austria were due to be downgraded but this was not confirmed ...
excerpt with permission

From the Financial Times: Greek debt restructuring talks collapse

Talks over Greece’s debt restructuring collapsed on Friday ... makes it more likely Athens will become the first government of a developed country in more than 60 years to suffer a full-scale default on its debt.

Lead negotiators for Greek bondholders said the latest offer made by Athens “has not produced a constructive consolidated response from all parties”– a clear reference to International Monetary Fund conclusions that bondholder losses must be increased significantly or a second Greek bail-out would have to be bigger than the agreed €130bn.excerpt with permission

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2012 09:55:00 AM

The preliminary January Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 74.0, up from the December reading of 69.9.


Click on graph for larger image.

Most of the recent sharp decline was event due to the debt ceiling debate, and sentiment has rebounded as expected. Now it is all about jobs, wages - and gasoline prices.

Sentiment is still fairly weak, although above the consensus forecast of 71.5.

by Calculated Risk on 1/13/2012 08:48:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reports:

[T]otal November exports of $177.8 billion and imports of $225.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $47.8 billion, up from $43.3 billion in October, revised. November exports were $1.5 billion less than October exports of $179.4 billion. November imports were $2.9 billion more than October imports of $222.6 billion.

The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of $45.0 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2011.

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports decreased and imports increased in November. Imports had been mostly moving sideways for the past six months (seasonally adjusted). Exports are well above the pre-recession peak and up 10% compared to November 2010; imports are up about 13% compared to November 2010.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through November.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $102.50 per barrel in November. The trade deficit with China declined slightly to $27 billion.

Exports to eurozone countries declined 6.9% in November. And the trade deficit with the European Union widened to $9.7 billion from $7.2 billion in November 2010.