by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2012 07:30:00 PM

From the WSJ: Greece Debt Negotiations Move Toward Deal

The Greek government expects to wrap up talks seeking a 50% writedown on its debt owed to creditor banks by the end of this month ... Greece has agreed to consider that the new bonds be governed by English law, which means creditors would be allowed to seize Greek assets if the country fails on its payments. ... "If nothing changes we are hoping to have an agreement within the next three weeks or even earlier," a senior Greek government official said.

Earlier this week I posted a few key dates for Europe, here are the next few (in addition to the Greek debt deal):

Jan 9th: German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy meet in Berlin.
Jan 24th: EU finance ministers meet in Brussels.
Jan 30th: European Union leaders meet in Brussels on debt crisis.

Meanwhile the Italian 10 year yield is back above 7%, and the Spanish 10 year yield is up to 5.64%.

Earlier:
• Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 5.2% in Q4, Lowest since 2001
• ADP: Private Employment increased 325,000 in December
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 372,000
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in December
• Employment Situation Preview: Improved, but still not strong

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2012 03:51:00 PM

Note: NFIB’s monthly small business survey for December will be released on Tuesday, January 10, 2012.

From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): NFIB Jobs Statement: No Rally in Jobs at Close of 2011, but Small Business is Cautiously Optimistic about 2012

Chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on the December job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, January 10, 2012. ...

“Unfortunately, December’s jobs numbers fizzled, with the net change in employment per firm turning negative again; small businesses lost an average .15 workers per firm. ... The good news is that the number of owners cutting jobs has ‘normalized’. In the past several months, reports of those cutting workers have been at the lowest levels since the recession started in December 2007. ... Over the next three months ... a seasonally adjusted net 6 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 1 point decline but still one of the strongest readings since September 2008.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Here is a graph of the net hiring plans for the next three months since 1986.

Hiring plans declined slightly in December, but the trend is up.

It is no surprise that small businesses are struggling due to the high concentration of real estate related companies in the survey. This is another slightly discouraging survey before the BLS report tomorrow.

Earlier:
• Reis: Apartment Vacancy Rate falls to 5.2% in Q4, Lowest since 2001
• ADP: Private Employment increased 325,000 in December
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 372,000
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index indicates slightly faster expansion in December
• Employment Situation Preview: Improved, but still not strong

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2012 01:29:00 PM

Tomorrow (Friday) the BLS will release the December Employment Situation Summary at 8:30 AM ET. Bloomberg is showing the consensus is for an increase of 150,000 payroll jobs in December, and for the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 8.7%. The consensus is probably moving up based on recent reports.

Here is a summary of recent data:

• The ADP employment report showed an increase of 325,000 private sector payroll jobs in December. Although ADP seems to track the BLS over time, the ADP report hasn't been very useful in predicting the BLS report. Also note that government payrolls have been shrinking by about 24,000 on average per month this year, so this suggests around 325,000 private nonfarm payroll jobs added, minus 24,000 government workers - or around 301,000 total jobs added in December.

However we need to use caution with the ADP report in December. From Jan Norman at the O.C. Register:

... Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, cautioned that the number may be inflated by an annual accounting correction that ADP does with its customers' data every December. That procedure tends to overstate seasonal adjustment of job gains in the aftermath of a recession.

And an explanation from Goldman's Andrew Tilton last year:

Because the ADP report counts the number of people on payrolls, regardless of how many hours they worked (or whether they worked at all), its accuracy depends on company payrolls being up to date. In reality, some companies do not immediately delete departing workers from their payroll records. Those that do not often wait until the end of the year. As a result, December in particular typically sees a meaningful decline in payrolls in the raw ADP data. The reported data are adjusted in an attempt to account for this behavior, but insofar as “purging” occurs to a greater or lesser extent than usual, it could affect the reported numbers. In particular, there was probably less purging in 2010 than in recent years, since data from the Labor Department make plain that the level of “separations” (layoffs or quits) declined this year. If this was less-than-fully accounted for by seasonal adjustment, the reported figure could show a large gain. (Note that the Labor Department’s survey does not suffer from the “purging” problem, since in that survey a person has to have actually reported hours in the survey period to be counted as employed.)

So ADP is probably overstating employment gains again this year.

• The ISM manufacturing employment index increased to 55.1% from 51.8% in November. Based on a historical correlation between the ISM index and the BLS employment report for manufacturing, this reading suggests the gain of ten thousand or so private sector payroll jobs for manufacturing in December.

The ISM service employment index increased to 49.4% from 48.9% in November. Based on a historical correlation between the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the BLS employment report for service, this reading suggests the gain of around 45,000 private payroll jobs for services in December.

Overall the ISM surveys do not suggest a strong employment report.

• Initial weekly unemployment claims averaged about 375,000 in December, down from 396,000 per week in November, and down from 405,000 per week in October.

For the BLS reference week (includes the 12th of the month), initial claims were at the lowest level since May 2008. This is a very positive sign.

• The final December Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 69.9, up from the November reading of 64.1. This is frequently coincident with changes in the labor market, but also strongly related to gasoline prices and other factors. In general this low level would suggest a weak labor market - but slightly better than in the July through November period (the BLS reported an average of 132,000 per month for those five months).

• And on the unemployment rate from Gallup: Gallup Finds U.S. Unemployment Holding at 8.5% in December

Gallup finds U.S. unemployment, not seasonally adjusted, at 8.5% in December -- the same as at the end of November, but down from 9.6% a year ago. Gallup's unemployment measure suggests the government is likely to report essentially no change for December 2011 in its seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, though this December is especially hard to predict.

NOTE: The Gallup poll results are Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), so use with caution. This does suggest little change in the headline seasonally adjusted unemployment rate.

There always seems to be some randomness to the employment report, but the overall situation has improved (lower initial weekly unemployment claims, more job openings). However the ADP report is probably overstating December job growth, and the ISM surveys still suggest sluggish job growth - I'll take the over (above 150,000), but I don't expect a strong report as suggested by ADP.

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2012 10:00:00 AM

The December ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 52.6%, up from 52.0% in November. The employment index increased in December to 49.4%, up from 48.9% in November. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: December 2011 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 25th consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The NMI registered 52.6 percent in December, 0.6 percentage point higher than the 52 percent registered in November, and indicating continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.2 percent, which is the same reading as reported in November, reflecting growth for the 29th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage point to 53.2 percent. The Employment Index increased 0.5 percentage point to 49.4 percent, indicating contraction in employment for the third time in the last four months. The Prices Index decreased 1.3 percentage points to 61.2 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in December when compared to November. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents' comments are mixed and vary by industry and company. Economic growth continues to be slowed by the lag in employment."
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This was below the consensus forecast of 53.4% and indicates slightly faster expansion in December than in November.

by Calculated Risk on 1/05/2012 08:40:00 AM

The DOL reports (press release added):

In the week ending December 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 372,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 373,250, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 376,500.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week to 373,250.

This is the lowest level for the 4-week average since June 2008.

And here is a long term graph of weekly claims:

The 4-week moving average is still falling and is now well below 400,000.

This suggests fewer layoffs and more payroll jobs added in December.

All current Employment Graphs