by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2011 08:11:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Dec 2, 2011. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Since the publication of the Unofficial Problem Bank List in August 2009, this is the first week there are no changes to report as the list remains unchanged at 980 institutions with assets of $400.5 billion. A year-ago, the list held 919 institutions with assets of $410.3 billion. The calendar only has about two more Fridays favorable for closures, so the FDIC will have to step it up if it needs to close anything else before year-end. Prime closing candidates may be the 25 institutions operating under a Prompt Corrective Action order.

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph of bank failures by week (cumulative) for the last several years.

In 2008, 25 banks failed, 140 banks failed in 2009, 157 in 2010, and only 90 so far in 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2011 07:28:00 PM

From Steve Green at the Las Vegas Sun: Homebuilder pulling out of Las Vegas market

Arizona-based Meritage Homes Corp. announced it was winding down operations in Las Vegas and would exit the struggling market in early 2013.

“It’s a sad state of affairs there,” executive Brent Anderson said during an interview Friday.

He said home sales by Meritage had fallen to 79 last year from 653 in 2005.

“When the market crashed, it crashed hard,” he said.

I'm surprised to hear the Vegas market is so tough (sorry for sarcasm). Prices are only down 60.6% from the peak, and Nevada still leads the nation with 58% of all mortgaged properties underwater.

Here are the earlier employment posts:
• November Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.6% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Seasonal Retail Hiring, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• NEW Employment graph gallery (fast, no scripting)

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2011 03:25:00 PM

From NFIB on small business hiring: November Brings First Positive Growth in Months

Chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) William C. Dunkelberg, issued the following statement on the November job numbers, based on NFIB’s monthly economic survey that will be released on Tuesday, December 13, 2011. ...

“The jobs report this month bears the first good news in a while. While the net change in employment per firm wasn’t much different from zero, it had a positive sign in front of it for the first time in nearly half a year. On average, owners reported increasing employment an average of 0.12 workers per firm. ...

“Forty-seven (47) percent of small business owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and 35 percent of them reported few or no qualified applicants for positions, both figures up 4 points from October.

“The percent of owners cutting jobs has returned to ‘normal’ levels. ... And the percent of owners adding employees (creating jobs) continued to trend up. Reports of new job creation should pick up a bit in the coming months.

“Sixteen percent (seasonally adjusted) reported hard to fill job openings up 2 points and the highest reading in 38 months. Over the next three months, 11 percent plan to increase employment (up 2 points), and 11 percent plan to reduce their workforce (down 1 point), yielding a seasonally adjusted net 7 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, a 4 point improvement and the strongest reading in 38 months.

Note: Small businesses have a larger percentage of real estate and retail related companies than the overall economy.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the net hiring plans for the next three months. Hiring plans were still fairly low in November, but the trend is up - and this is the strongest reading in 38 months.

This fits with data from ADP that also shows a pickup in small business hiring (ht Brian).

Here are the earlier employment posts:
• November Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.6% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Seasonal Retail Hiring, Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education and Diffusion Indexes
• NEW Employment graph gallery (fast, no scripting)

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2011 12:30:00 PM

Here are the earlier employment posts:
• November Employment Report: 120,000 Jobs, 8.6% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• NEW Employment graph gallery (fast, no scripting)

And a few more graphs ...

Seasonal Retail Hiring
According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers at close to the pre-crisis pace in November.

Click on graph for larger image.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

Retailers hired 423.5 thousand workers (NSA) net in November, and 547.2 thousand in October and November combined. This is more hiring than last year, and this is about the same level as in 2006 and 2007. Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

This suggests retailers are somewhat optimistic about the holiday season.

Duration of Unemployment
This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Only one category increased in November: The "15 to 26 Weeks" group. This is probably spillover from the increase in short term unemployment in August and September. A little bit of good news is that short term unemployment (less than 14 weeks) has declined.

The the long term unemployed declined to 3.7% of the labor force - this is still very high, but the lowest since October 2009.

Unemployment by Education
This graph shows the unemployment rate by four levels of education (all groups are 25 years and older).

Unfortunately this data only goes back to 1992 and only includes one previous recession (the stock / tech bust in 2001). Clearly education matters with regards to the unemployment rate - and it appears all four groups are generally trending down.

Although education matters, it appears that the college educated category is declining the slowest (and was the only category to increase in November).

Note: This says nothing about the quality of jobs - as an example, a college graduate working at minimum wage would be considered "employed".

Diffusion Indexes
This is a little more technical. The BLS diffusion index for total private employment was at 54.7 in November, down from 59.6 in October. For manufacturing, the diffusion index decreased to 49.4, down from 52.5 in October.

Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. From the BLS:

Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

It appears job growth was spread across fewer industries in November.

We'd like to see the diffusion indexes consistently above 60 - and even in the 70s like in the '1990s.

by Calculated Risk on 12/02/2011 10:10:00 AM

This was another weak report, and the headline number was slightly below consensus forecasts. However there were some positives too: the unemployment rate declined to 8.6% and the payroll employment was revised up for September and October.

There were only 120,000 jobs added in November. There were 140,000 private sector jobs added, and 20,000 government jobs lost.

The change in total employment was revised up for September and October. "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000."

The household survey showed an increase of 278,000 jobs in November. This increase in the household survey - along with a 315,000 decline in the labor force - pushed the unemployment rate down sharply to 8.6%. The participation rate fell to 64.0%, and the employment population ratio increased to 58.5%. This is the fourth straight monthly increase in the employment population ratio from the low in July at 58.1%.

U-6, an alternate measure of labor underutilization that includes part time workers and marginally attached workers, declined to 15.6% - this remains very high. U-6 was in the 8% range in 2007.

The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings decreased slightly. "The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in November ... Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased in November by 2 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $23.18. ... Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.8 percent." This is sluggish earnings growth, and earnings are being impacted by the large number of unemployed and marginally employed workers.

Through the first eleven months of 2011, the economy has added 1.448 million total non-farm jobs or just 131 thousand per month. This is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.2 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession. The economy has added 1.711 million private sector jobs this year, or about 156 thousand per month.

There are a total of 13.3 million Americans unemployed and 5.7 million have been unemployed for more than 6 months. Very grim.

Overall this was another weak employment report and suggests sluggish economic growth.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at maximum job losses.

In the previous post, the graph showed the job losses aligned at the start of the employment recession.

The following graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate.

The unemployment rate declined to 8.6% (red line).

The Labor Force Participation Rate was declined to 64.0% in November (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although some of the decline is due to the aging population.

The Employment-Population ratio increased to 58.5% in November (black line).

Note: the household survey showed another strong gain in jobs, and that - combined with a decline in the labor force - is why the unemployment rate declined sharply with few payroll jobs added.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) dropped by 378,000 over the month to 8.5 million.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) decreased to 8.5 million in November from 9.27 million in October. This just reverses some of the increase in August and September.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 15.6% in November from 16.2% in October.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 5.691 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was down from 5.876 million in October. This is still very high, but this is the lowest number since Oct 2009. Long term unemployment remains a serious problem.

More graphs coming ...