by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2011 08:52:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2011 (second estimate

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2011 (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter) according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

This was revised down from 2.5% and below the consensus of 2.4%.

The downward revisions was mostly due to a large decline in the "change in real private inventories " - this subtracted 1.55 percentage points from the third-quarter change in real GDP (second estimate) as opposed to 1.08 percentage points in the advance estimate. Final domestic demand was mostly unchanged (the inventories will probably reverse in Q4). Still sluggish growth ...

by Calculated Risk on 11/22/2011 12:35:00 AM

From the WSJ: BofA Warned to Get Stronger

Bank of America Corp.'s board has been told that the company could face a public enforcement action if regulators aren't satisfied with recent steps taken to strengthen the bank ... The nation's second-largest lender has been operating under a memorandum of understanding since May 2009 ... In recent months, regulators met with Bank of America's board and said they wanted to see more progress ... Otherwise the informal order could turn into a formal and public action ...

This would be a huge addition to the "Unofficial" problem bank list (We only include banks operating under a formal action on the list). A formal action would mean greater restrictions - and would bring more negative publicity to the bank.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in October: 4.97 million SAAR, 8.0 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: More on Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2011 08:46:00 PM

Just a quick note - for anyone accessing Calculatedriskblog via an iPad, I'm trying out some new software with a customized tablet layout. I'll be adding smart phone software soon ...

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in October: 4.97 million SAAR, 8.0 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: More on Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2011 06:03:00 PM

From Dow Jones: Moody's: Commercial Real-Estate Prices Fell In September

U.S. commercial real-estate prices fell 1.4% in September, ending a four-month growth streak ... Moody's expects "multi-family and hotel properties to lead the price recovery," said Nick Levidy, Moody's managing director. "Office and retail will lag mostly because of a very high number of vacancies and the burn-off of above-market rent leases."

Below is a graph of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) - Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted.

Click on graph for larger image.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000.

According to Moody's, CRE prices are up 1.3% from a year ago, and down about 42% from the peak in 2007. This index is very volatile because there are relatively few transactions - but it does appear to be mostly moving sideways.
All current Commercial Real Estate graphs

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in October: 4.97 million SAAR, 8.0 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: More on Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/21/2011 03:45:00 PM

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:

• Travel on all roads and streets changed by -1.5% (-3.7 billion vehicle miles) for September 2011 as compared with September 2010.

• Travel for the month is estimated to be 244.2 billion vehicle miles.

• Cumulative Travel for 2011 changed by -1.3% (-29.8 billion vehicle miles).

The following graph shows the rolling 12 month total vehicle miles driven.

Click on graph for larger image.

In the early '80s, miles driven (rolling 12 months) stayed below the previous peak for 39 months.

Currently miles driven has been below the previous peak for 46 months - so this is a new record for longest period below the previous peak - and still counting! Talk about moving sideways ...

The second graph shows the year-over-year change from the same month in the previous year. The current decline is not as a severe as in 2008, but this is significant.

The year-over-year decline in September wasn't as severe as in July and August, but was still negative for the seventh straight month.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in October: 4.97 million SAAR, 8.0 months of supply
• Existing Home Sales: More on Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
• Existing Home Sales graphs