by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 12:11:00 PM

Yesterday Fannie Mae reported their third quarter results. Fannie's REO inventory fell to 122,616 houses from 135,719 at the end of Q2. Fannie's REO inventory has declined for four straight quarters.

Below is a graph of Fannie Mae REO acquisitions (completed foreclosure or deed-in-lieu) and dispositions (sales).

Note the slowdown in REO acquisitions in Q4 2010, and the increase in sales.

Since sales have been higher than acquisitions, REO inventory has been falling. However there are many properties delayed in the foreclosure process, and acquisitions will pick up when the mortgage servicer settlement is reached.

Click on graph for larger image.

If we just looked at REO inventory, we might think that the situation is getting better pretty quickly. However there are a large number of properties in the "90 days delinquent" and "in foreclosure" buckets.

The second graph shows the delinquent and REO buckets over time. The delinquency data is from LPS, and the REO estimates are based on work by Tom Lawler and my own calculations.

The dashed lines are "normal" historical levels for each bucket. The 30 day bucket is only slightly elevated (as of September), and the 60 day buckets is somewhat elevated. But the glaring problems are in the 90 day and in-foreclosure buckets.

There are 4.1 million seriously delinquent loans (90 day and in-foreclosure). This is about 3.1 million more properties than normal. Probably when the mortgage settlement is announced, some of these loans will cure as part of the settlement with loan modifications that include principal reduction, but many of these properties will become REOs fairly quickly.

So even though REO inventory is declining, there are still many more to come.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index Increased 1.1 Percent in October, Offsetting the 1.0 Percent Decline in September

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index®(PCI®), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation, rose 1.1 percent in October after three consecutive months of negative numbers.

Over the past three months, compared to the prior three months, the PCI declined at an annualized rate of 5.8 percent and the PCI remains lower than it was during most of the first half of 2011. “The October data offer some welcome relief from the double-dip fears that were rampant a month ago, but one month does not mean a new trend. Until we get a series of positive months, it remains a she-loves-me, she-loves-me-not economy with bad news followed by good followed by bad,” said Ed Leamer, chief economist for the Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

On a year-over-year basis, the PCI was up 1.3 percent in October compared to the -0.2 percent decrease in the prior month. ... Based on the latest PCI data, our forecast for October Industrial Production is a 0.12 percent increase when the government estimate is released on November 16.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

This index declined sharply in late summer and this small rebound only offsets some of the recent decline.

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).

All current Transportation graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 07:57:00 AM

• The Italian 10 year yield is at 7.32% after hitting 7.48% this morning.

• From Reuters: LCH.Clearnet Raises Initial Margin Call on Italian Debt

LCH.Clearnet increased the margin on debt from the [Italy] at a time when its bonds yields are close to levels deemed unsustainable.
...
When LCH.Clearnet Ltd took similar action on Portuguese and Irish debt as bond yields soared, it added to selling pressure on the paper. Both countries were later forced to seek bailouts.

• European stocks are off today with the FTSE down 2%, and the DAX down 3%.

by Calculated Risk on 11/09/2011 07:40:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 12.1 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 4.8 percent from one week earlier to the highest level since August 2011.
...
"Treasury rates dropped last week, as renewed turmoil in Europe once again led to a flight to quality, and 30-year mortgage rates dropped to their second lowest level of the year," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Vice President of Research and Economics. "Refinance applications jumped more than 12 percent to their highest level in a month and some lenders experienced even larger increases. As has been the case all year, many refinance applicants are opting to deleverage by choosing 15-year mortgages."
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.22 percent from 4.31 percent.

The following graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Click on graph for larger image.

Although the purchase index increased, the index is still sharply below the levels of June and July - and at about the same level as in 1996. This does not include cash buyers, but this suggests weak home sales over the next couple of months.

All current Existing Home Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 11/08/2011 09:41:00 PM

An apt headline from the Athens News: Sinking with no captain

The European Union’s shattered trust in Greece and interparty wrangling have delayed the announcement of Greece’s new coalition government ...

The humiliating demand by EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn that the next tranche of loans will not be disbursed unless New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras signs a declaration that he will support full implementation of the October 27 bailout threw his party into a tailspin.

The demand came a day after ND issued a nonpaper saying that the party will support the new government’s policies, only to reverse them when the conservatives come to power.

Designed to beat Samaras into complete submission, Rehn’s demand triggered an uproar in the ND party base ...

I don't know if this story is accurate, but if the plan is to default - just say so.