by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2011 03:29:00 PM

From Athens News: Coalition government deal reached

According to sources, Greek prime minister George Papandreou and opposition leader Antonis Samaras agreed on the form of a coalition governments at talks hosted by the president Karolos Papoulias on Sunday.

According to an announcement [from] the Presidency George Papandreou will not lead the new government. The new government will ratify the EU deal of Oct. 26th and afterwards will lead the country to elections.

UPDATE:

From the NY Times: Leaders in Greece Agree to Form a New Government

After crisis talks on Sunday night, Prime Minister George Papandreou and his main rival agreed to create a new unity government in Greece that will not be led by Mr. Papandreou, according to a statement released Sunday night by the Greek president, who mediated the talks.

Mr. Papandreou and the opposition leader Antonis Samaras agreed to meet again on Monday to hammer out the details. The name of the new prime minister is not expected until then.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2011 01:50:00 PM

On Friday I noted that retailers hired seasonal workers at close to the pre-crisis pace in October. Reader Hd asked about the correlation between seasonal hiring and retail sales. Below is a scatter graph of historical October retail hiring vs. the real increase in retail sales.

First, here is the NRF forecast for this year: NRF Forecasts Holiday Sales Increase of 2.8 Percent to $465.6 Billion

The 2011 holiday season can be summed up in one word: average. On the heels of a holiday season that outperformed most analysts’ expectations, holiday retail sales for 2011 are expected to increase 2.8 percent to $465.6 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. While that growth is far lower than the 5.2 percent increase retailers experienced last year, it is slightly higher than the ten-year average holiday sales increase of 2.6 percent.
...
NRF used its holiday forecasting model to create a projection for seasonal hiring in retail. According to NRF, retailers are expected to hire between 480,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this holiday season, which is comparable to the 495,000 seasonal employees they hired last year.
...
Retail industry sales include most traditional retail categories including discounters, department stores, grocery stores, and specialty stores, and exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations, and restaurants.

Here is a repeat of the graph of retail hiring based on the BLS employment report:

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

Retailers hired 141.5 thousand workers (NSA) net in October. This is about the same level as in 2003 through 2006 and the same as in 2010. Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

The scatter graph is for the years 1993 through 2010 and compares October retail hiring with the real increase (inflation adjusted) for retail sales (Q4 over previous Q4).

In general October hiring is a pretty good indicator of seasonal sales. R-square is 0.69 for this small sample. Note: This uses retail sales in Q4, and excludes autos, gasoline and restaurants.

This suggests a real gain of around 2.5% in Q4 (plus inflation), well above the NRF forecast of 2.8% nominal (including inflation).

However November is the key month for seasonal retail hiring, and if retailers hire 330,000+ seasonal workers in November like last year, this retail season will probably be solid.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2011 08:43:00 AM

It seems likely the Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will resign today after an agreement is reached on a coalition government and an interim Prime Minister.

There is a cabinet meeting starting at 9 AM ET.

From Athens News: Negotiations over coalition underway

The government spokesman announced on Sunday morning, speaking on a current affairs TV programme, that an agreement over a coalition or unity government could be worked out the same day, while adding that the name of a new prime minister could also be announced.

Spokesman Ilias Mossialos underlined that negotiations are underway, clarifying that the name of the new premier must be announced by tomorrow. However, he cautioned that current Prime Minister George Papandreou would resign only when the two issues are finalised.

... main opposition New Democracy party cadres have been quoted as saying the party will agree to such a prospect as long as a transitional government lasts no longer than six weeks, time enough to ratify and implement a series of landmark recent agreements Athens has signed with its creditors.

From the WSJ: Greek Leader May Step Down

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou may announce his resignation after a cabinet meeting Sunday that will pave the way for a coalition government ... Earlier in the day, Antonis Samaras, the head of Greece's main opposition New Democracy party, called for Mr. Papandreou's immediate resignation, indicating that he was open to talks with the ruling socialists over forming a coalition government.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2011 08:38:00 PM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Nov 4, 2011. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Very quiet week for changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List as there were only two removals. After the removals, the list holds 985 institutions with assets of $406.3 billion. A year ago, the list had 894 institutions with assets of $418.5 billion. It appears that the FDIC and OCC will be releasing their new enforcement actions during the last week of the month; thus, most changes to the list during the interim weeks will be from failures or unassisted mergers.

The removals this week were the two failures -- SunFirst Bank, Saint George, UT ($213 million) and Mid City Bank, Inc., Omaha, NE ($125 million), which were the first failures in Utah and Nebraska this year. Many readers may remember that the Vice Chairman of SunFirst Bank was arrested by federal authorities this past spring because of his involvement in operating an online poker website. Because of potential litigation, the FDIC is retaining about $15 million of SunFirst Bank's deposits.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Nov 6th
• Summary for Week Ending Nov 4th

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2011 05:06:00 PM

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports carload traffic in October increased 1.7 percent compared with the same month last year, and intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers) increased 3.6 percent compared with October 2010. On a seasonally adjusted basis, carloads in October were up 0.5% from last month, and intermodal in October was up 0.8% from September.

U.S. freight railroads originated 1,215,627 carloads in October 2011, an average of 303,907 per week, up 1.7% over October 2010, and the highest average of any month since October 2008. It’s also the biggest year-over-year percentage increase since March 2011.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).

Rail carload traffic collapsed in November 2008, and now, over 2 years into the recovery, carload traffic is about half way back.

The second graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers):

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, U.S. rail intermodal originations averaged 243,892 trailers and containers per week in October 2011, up 3.6% over October 2010. That’s the highest weekly average for any month since October 2006 and the sixth highest weekly average of any month in history.

October is almost always the top month for intermodal traffic because it’s when retailers do the bulk of their stocking up for the holidays.
excerpts with permission

Rail traffic improved in October, but this is still sluggish growth.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Nov 6th
• Summary for Week Ending Nov 4th