by Calculated Risk on 11/01/2011 08:38:00 AM

Some European bond yields are rising sharply ...

From the Financial Times: Referendum call sparks fears over Greek bail-out

The premier also raised the stakes by announcing a parliamentary vote of confidence ... The debate ... will start on Wednesday with a vote set for midnight on Friday.
excerpt with permission

From the WSJ: Greek Vote Threatens Bailout

A "yes" vote in the referendum could deflate the massive street protests and strikes that threaten to paralyze Greece as it tries to enact a brutal austerity program to earn rescue loans from the euro zone and the International Monetary Fund.

A "no" vote, however, could bring down the government and cut off international funding for Greece, leaving the country facing a financial meltdown. The government expects to hold the referendum in January.

The Greek 2 year yield is up to 84.2% (up from 77.7% yesterday) The Greek 1 year yield is up to 194% (from 158%).

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 19.6% (from 18.3% yesterday) and the Irish 2 year yield is up to 9.3% (from 8.8%).

The Spanish 10 year yield is at 5.6% and the Italian 10 year yield is up to 6.3% (from 6.1%).

The Belgian 10 year yield is at 4.4% and the French 10 year yield is down to 3.0%.

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 10:27:00 PM

The graph below shows gasoline prices have been slowly moving down since peaking in early May.

Unfortunately, according to Bloomberg, Brent Crude is up to $109.12 per barrel, and WTI is up to $92.83.

According to the EIA, WTI is up from $79 per barrel at the end of September, and Brent is up from $105. It appears the gap between WTI and Brent is closing.

Note: This graph show oil prices for WTI; gasoline prices in most of the U.S. are impacted more by Brent prices.

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 06:14:00 PM

This was announced earlier today, but this story has the timing. From the NY Times: Greece to Hold Referendum on New Debt Deal

Prime Minister George Papandreou announced Monday night that his Socialist government would hold a rare national referendum on a new debt agreement for Greece ... Mr. Papandreou said that the decision on whether to adopt the deal, which includes fresh financial assistance for the country but also imposes unpopular austerity measures, belonged to the Greek people. “Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them decide on the country’s fate,” he said ... Government sources said that the confidence vote was expected by the end of the week, with the referendum much later, in December or even January.

So there will be a vote of confidence by the end of this week, and then a general referendum later.

The Greek 2 year yield is down to 77.7%. The Greek 1 year yield is down to 158%.

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 18.3% and the Irish 2 year yield is up to 8.8%.

The Spanish 10 year yield is at 5.54% and the Italian 10 year yield is up to 6.1%.

The Belgian 10 year yield is at 4.4% and the French 10 year yield is down to 3.1%.

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 04:14:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined to 4.00% in September. This is down from 4.03% in August, and down from 4.56% in September of 2010. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate increased to 3.51% in September, up from 3.49% in August. This is down from 3.80% in September 2010. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Some of the rapid increase in 2009 was probably because of foreclosure moratoriums, and also because loans in trial mods were considered delinquent until the modifications were made permanent.

Tracking this on a monthly basis this is kind of like watching paint dry, but the serious delinquency rates are generally falling - but only falling slowly. The key is the normal serious delinquency rate is under 1%, and at this pace of decline, the delinquency rate will not be back to "normal" for a number of years.

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 12:45:00 PM

From the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Rose Above 100 in September, as Sales and Traffic Levels Improved

Buoyed by stronger same-store sales and customer traffic levels, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) topped the 100 mark in September for the first time in three months. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 100.1 in September, up 0.7 percent from August and its highest level since June. In addition, September represented the first time in three months that the RPI stood above 100, the level above which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“The September increase in the Restaurant Performance Index was fueled by improvements in the same-store sales and customer traffic indicators,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “Among the forward-looking indicators, restaurant operators are more optimistic about sales growth in the months ahead, while their outlook for the overall economy remains cloudy.”
...
Restaurant operators reported stronger same-store sales in September. ... Restaurant operators also bounced back from a sluggish August performance to report net positive customer traffic levels in September.

Click on graph for larger image.

The index increased to 100.1 in September (abpve 100 indicates expansion).

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

Last month I wrote: "August was an especially weak economic month following the debt ceiling debate, and it will be interesting to see if these indicators show some rebound in September and October." This is a small rebound, but this suggests the recent dip might have been partially due to the default threat.