by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 10:30:00 AM

This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for October. The regional surveys provide a hint about the ISM manufacturing index - and the regional surveys were mixed and still weak in October, but improved from August and September.

Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands

Texas factory activity increased in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained positive but edged down from 5.9 to 4.1, suggesting growth slowed slightly.

Other measures of current manufacturing conditions also indicated growth in October, and the pace of new orders increased. The shipments index fell from 9.4 to 2.7, suggesting shipment volumes continued to increase but at a slower pace. The capacity utilization index moved back into positive territory after being negative for two months. The new orders index suggested a pickup in demand, moving from 3.6 to 8.3. ...

Perceptions of general business conditions improved in October. The general business activity index jumped up from -14.4 to 2.3, its first positive reading in six months. The company outlook index also rose markedly, bouncing back to a reading of 7.2 after coming in near zero in September.

Labor market indicators reflected higher labor demand growth. The employment index came in at 15.1, up slightly from 13.4 in September.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through October), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through September (right axis).

The ISM index for October will be released Tuesday, Nov 1st and this suggests another fairly weak reading in October. The consensus is for a slight increase to 52.0 from 51.6 in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 09:45:00 AM

From the Chicago ISM Chicago Business Barometer™ Stabilized:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER stabilized in October. The Business Barometer marked a 25th month of expansion, yet the 3 month moving average for the barometer fell for the 7th consecutive month. Monthly changes in the individual Business Activity components were generally modest with all but one component converging towards their 3 month moving averages.

The overall index decreased to 58.4 from 60.4 in September. This was close to consensus expectations of 58.0.

Note: any number above 50 shows expansion.

The employment index increased to 62.3 from 60.6. "EMPLOYMENT highest in 6-months"

The new orders index decreased to 61.3 from 65.3. "NEW ORDERS erased half of September's gain"

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending Oct 28th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 30th
• FOMC Meeting Preview

by Calculated Risk on 10/31/2011 08:51:00 AM

A cartoon from the FT Alphaville: E*C*B

[This] appears on page 8 of the FT’s UK print edition. It’s like one of them Renaissance allegory paintings ... Interpretations welcome.

I'm not sure about the meaning, but I liked the play on M*A*S*H.

Maybe this has something to do with Mario Draghi taking over at the ECB tomorrow. Although the ECB will obviously cut rates soon (they were caught going the wrong direction), it seems that Draghi's hands are mostly tied as far as QE.

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2011 10:14:00 PM

From the WSJ: Japan Intervenes on Yen

[T]he Japanese government launched a new foreign-exchange intervention on Monday, Finance Minister Jun Azumi said ... The intervention came after the dollar fell to a post-World War II record low of ¥75.31 in early Asian trading.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight. The Nikkei is up 0.75%, the Hang Seng is down slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P 500 is down about 5 points, and Dow futures are down about 40 points.

Oil: WTI futures are down slightly to $93.07 and Brent is down to $109.35 per barrel.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending Oct 28th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 30th
• FOMC Meeting Preview

by Calculated Risk on 10/30/2011 05:33:00 PM

By request, here is an update to four key indicators used by the NBER for business cycle dating: GDP, Employment, Industrial production and real personal income less transfer payments.

Note: The following graphs are all constructed as a percent of the peak in each indicator. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

These graphs show that most major indicators are still way below the pre-recession peaks.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph is for real GDP through Q3 2011 and shows real GDP is finally back to the pre-recession peak. Gross Domestic Income (not shown) returned to the pre-recession peak in Q2 - GDI for Q3 will be released with the 2nd estimate of GDP. (For a discussion of GDI, see here).

At the worst point, real GDP was off 5.1% from the 2007 peak. Real GDI was off 5.7% at the trough.

And real GDP has performed better than other indicators ...

This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments as a percent of the previous peak through September.

This measure was off almost 11% at the trough!

Real personal income less transfer payments is still 5.3% below the previous peak and has declined over the last three months.

This graph is for industrial production through September.

Industrial production had been one of the stronger performing sectors because of inventory restocking and some growth in exports.

However industrial production is still 6.5% below the pre-recession peak, and it will probably be some time before industrial production returns to pre-recession levels.

The final graph is for employment. This is similar to the graph I post every month comparing percent payroll jobs lost in several recessions.

Payroll employment is still 4.8% below the pre-recession peak.

This shows that the recovery in all indicators has been very sluggish compared to recent recessions.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week ending Oct 28th
• Schedule for Week of Oct 30th