by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2011 08:11:00 PM

Mountain high value
Ghost profits spun from thin air
Now a prairie dog.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Bank Midwest, National Association, Kansas City, Missouri, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community Banks of Colorado, Greenwood, Colorado

As of June 30, 2011, Community Banks of Colorado had approximately $1.38 billion in total assets and $1.33 billion in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $224.9 million. ... Community Banks of Colorado is the 84th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the sixth in Colorado.

That makes four today.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2011 05:12:00 PM

Like The Walking Dead
Georgian zombie banks spawning
Our ammo runs low
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: 1st United Bank, Boca Raton, Florida, Assumes All of the Deposits of Old Harbor Bank, Clearwater, Florida

As of June 30, 2011, Old Harbor Bank had approximately $215.9 million in total assets and $217.8 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $39.3 million. ... Old Harbor Bank is the 81st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twelfth in Florida.

From the FDIC: Fidelity Bank, Atlanta, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Decatur First Bank, Decatur, Georgia

As of June 30, 2011, Decatur First Bank had approximately $191.5 million in total assets and $179.2 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $32.6 million. ... Decatur First Bank is the 82nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twenty-first in Georgia.

From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community Capital Bank, Jonesboro, Georgia

As of June 30, 2011, Community Capital Bank had approximately $181.2 million in total assets and $166.2 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $62.0 million. ... Community Capital Bank is the 83rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twenty-second in Georgia.

Three more today - so far - and 22 in Georga this year!

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2011 04:00:00 PM

From the Financial Times: EU looks at 60% haircuts for Greek debt.

The Financial Times reports on a "strictly confidential" report. According to the Financial Times the report notes that the Greek situation has deteriorated significantly since July, and to bring the next bail-out back to the level of the July agreement would probably require "bondholders ... to take a 60 per cent loss on their current holding". That will change the amount need to recapitalize the European banks!

The Greek 2 year yield is up to 77.3%. The Greek 1 year yield is at 183%. (corrected typo)

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 17.9% and the Irish 2 year yield is up to 8.6%.

The Spanish 10 year yield is at 5.5% and the Italian 10 year yield is at 5.9%. Both have been moving up recently.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2011 01:50:00 PM

From the LA Times: October auto sales expected to rise

Auto research company J.D. Power and Associates estimates an annual industry sales pace of 13.1 million vehicles for the month, about the same as September and a big jump from earlier in the year.

Auto sales in Q3 were up about 3% over Q2. Even though this estimate for October is about the same as September, sales in Q4 would be up about 5% over Q3 even if sales were flat all quarter (because July and August were weak). This will give a boost to Q4 GDP.

And from Merrill Lynch this morning:

Our tracking model of third quarter GDP has been running well ahead of our former official estimate of 1.8% growth. Today, in our US economic weekly, we officially revise up our Q3 forecast to 2.7%. We expect some of this strong momentum to carry over into the fourth quarter. We bumped up our Q4 estimate to 2.3% from 2.0%.

I'm including this because most of the revisions have been down in recent quarters. But it is important to remember this is still sluggish growth.

Dean Baker writes: Is the Double Dip Drifting Away?

The economy looks to be growing in a range of 2-3 percent. This is roughly fast enough to keep even with the growth of the labor force. That implies that we are making zero progress in putting people back to work.

Unfortunately ... this slow growth is likely to be seen as good. It isn't ...

Dr. Baker makes some key points: Sluggish growth isn't good, beating "incredibly low expectations" isn't great, and employment is just keeping "even with the growth of the labor force". And we need to remember there are still significant downside risks.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2011 10:19:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in September. Twenty-five states recorded unemployment rate decreases, 14 states posted rate increases, and 11 states and the District of Columbia had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Thirty-eight states registered unemployment rate decreases from a year earlier, 10 states and the District of Columbia had increases, and 2 states experienced no change.
...
Nevada continued to report the highest unemployment rate among the states, 13.4 percent in September. California posted the next highest rate, 11.9 percent. North Dakota registered the lowest jobless rate, 3.5 percent, followed by Nebraska, 4.2 percent.

The following graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). If there is no blue, the state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate.

Two states and D.C. are at 2007 recession highs: Arkansas (8.3%), D.C. (11.1%), and Texas (8.5%).

From the BLS: "Forty-six states recorded unemployment rates that were not appreciably different from those of a year earlier."

The fact that 46 states have seen little or no improvement over the last year is a reminder that the unemployment crisis is ongoing.