by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2011 12:20:00 PM

From Reuters: Greece opts for property levy to boost budget revenue

Greece on Sunday announced a new tax on real estate ... "It is a special levy on property which will be collected through electricity bills," Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos [said].

The tax is €4 per square meter (about $0.50 per sq. feet). The government is projecting this levy will make up for the revenue shortfall due to the sharper than expected contraction in the Greek economy.

The Greek 2 year yield is at 57%. The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 15.7% (after falling below 12% in August). Also the Irish 2 year yield is at 9.3% (below 8% in August).

The next few weeks are "make or break" for the next Greek bailout.

Yesterday:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 11th
• Summary for Week ending September 9th

by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2011 09:35:00 AM

I remember where I was – and everything I did on 9/11. Mostly I remember the overwhelming sense of shock and sadness, and the discussions of the events of that day with family and friends.

I wish everyone the best.

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2011 08:51:00 PM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Sept 9, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, it was a quiet week for changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. This week, there were two removals and one addition, which leaves the list with 986 institutions and assets of $402.7 billion. A year ago, there were 849 institutions with assets of $415.3 billion.

The removals were the failed The First National Bank of Florida, Milton, FL ($297 million) and Clarkston State Bank, Clarkston, MI ($111 million Ticker: HRTB), which had its actions terminated by the FDIC. The addition is Community Pride Bank, Isanti, MN ($92 million), which has been subject to a Consent Order by the State of Minnesota and not the FDIC since May 2010. This action just came to light when the Federal Reserve issued a Written Agreement against the bank's parent holding company.

Next week, we anticipate the OCC will release its actions through mid-August, which should contribute to more changes to the list.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 11th
• Summary for Week ending September 9th

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2011 06:25:00 PM

There was a rumor on Friday that Greece would default this weekend. That seems very unlikely, although Greece is running out of time. Also there are quite a few protests going on in Greece today.

• From the Financial Times: Greece vows to avoid default at all cost

[Prime Minister] George Papandreou has vowed to fully implement reforms ... so that Greece will be able to avoid default and remain a member of the eurozone. ... ”We’re travelling on an uphill road during an international storm … but our first priority is to save the country from bankruptcy.”
...
He also [said] several struggling Greek banks ... would be nationalised ...
excerpt with permission

• From the WSJ: Greek Leader Vows To Press Changes

Prime Minister George Papandreou vowed Saturday that the country would meet its budget targets and press ahead with difficult reforms, even as thousands demonstrated against those reforms on the streets of Greece's second largest city.
...
"Even if the recession this year is appreciably bigger than the original forecasts…Greece will meet its fiscal targets doing all it has to do," Mr. Papandreou said.

• On France from Reuters: French banks braced for credit-rating downgrade-sources

France's top banks are bracing themselves for a likely credit rating downgrade from Moody's ... Several sources said on Saturday that BNP Paribas , Societe Generale and Credit Agricole were expecting an "imminent" decision from the ratings agency, which first put them under review for possible downgrade on June 15.

Earlier:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 11th
• Summary for Week ending September 9th

by Calculated Risk on 9/10/2011 01:45:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending September 9th

Several key reports will be released this week: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

There will also be a special focus on the monthly surveys for some improvement from the dismal readings in August: both the Philly Fed and NY Fed (Empire state) manufacturing surveys for September will be released on Thursday, and the preliminary consumer sentiment survey for September will be released on Friday.

Both retail sales and Industrial Production were probably weak in August.

Note: The Greek bailout issue will be headline news.

----- Sunday, Sept 11th -----
The opening of the National September 11 Memorial & Museum at the World Trade Center. Live cam feeds at the World Trade Center.

----- Monday, Sept 12th -----
No scheduled releases.

----- Tuesday, Sept 13th -----
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for August.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index decreased to 89.9 in July from 90.8 in June. Optimism has declined for five consecutive months now.

8:30 AM: Import and Export Prices for August. The consensus is a for a 0.9% decrease in import prices.

9:00 AM: Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ This is the diesel fuel index for August (a measure of transportation).

----- Wednesday, Sept 14th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last several months and the four average was at 1995 levels last week.

8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for August. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

8:30 AM: Retail Sales for August.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

The consensus is for retail sales to be a 0.2% increase in August, and for a 0.3% increase ex-auto.

10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for July. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in inventories.

----- Thursday, Sept 15th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 412,000 from 414,000 last week.

8:30 AM ET: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -3.6, up from -7.7 in August (above zero is expansion).

8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in prices. The consensus for core CPI is an increase of 0.2%.

9:15 AM ET: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in July to 94.2.

The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production in August, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 77.5%.

10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for September. This index fell off a cliff in August. The consensus is for a reading of -15.0 (above zero indicates expansion), up from -30.7 last month.

----- Friday, Sept 16th -----
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for September.

Consumer sentiment declined sharply in July and August - from 71.5 in June to 63.7 in July and to 55.7 in August - this is just above the crisis low off 55.3 in November 2008.

The consensus is for a slight increase to 56.0 from 55.7 in August.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2011

12:00 PM: Q2 Flow of Funds Accounts from the Federal Reserve.