by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2011 12:00:00 AM

Nothing new, but a summary of some of the headwinds for the large banks face - and the prospects for more layoffs (ht Brian).

From Eric Dash at the NY Times: As Fortunes Dim, Banks Confront a Leaner Future

Battered by a weak economy, the nation’s biggest banks are cutting jobs, consolidating businesses and scrambling for new sources of income ... UBS has announced 3,500 layoffs, 5 percent of its staff, and Citigroup is quietly cutting dozens of traders. Bank of America could cut as many as 10,000 jobs, or 3.5 percent of its work force. ABN Amro, Barclays, Bank of New York Mellon, Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Lloyds, State Street and Wells Fargo have in recent months all announced plans to cut jobs — tens of thousands all told.
...
Lending, the prime driver of revenue, has been depressed for several years and is not expected to pick up anytime soon ... Trading profits have also been waning amid a slowdown in volumes, and Wall Street’s once-lucrative mortgage packaging business is unlikely to bring in the blockbuster fees it earned during the housing boom.

On top of that, the financial regulations enacted by Congress last year are causing banks to add more risk managers and compliance staff ...

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 28th

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2011 05:21:00 PM

Last week I noted that 1-4 family Real Estate Owned (REO) by FDIC insured institutions declined to an estimated 80,600 in Q2. As Tom Lawler noted, the FDIC does not collect data on the number of properties held by FDIC-insured institutions, instead they aggregate the carrying value of 1-4 family residential REO on FDIC-insured institutions’ balance sheets.

Here is a graph of the 1-4 family REO carrying value for FDIC insured institutions since Q1 2003.

For Q2 2011, the FDIC reported (See Table V-A) the value was $12.09 billion, down from $13.28 billion in Q1, and down from a high of $14.76 billion in Q3 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The left scale is the dollars reported in the FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile, and the right scale is an estimate of REOs using an average of $150,000 per unit. Using this estimate for the average per REO, that gives 80.6 thousand REO at the end of Q2, down from 88.5 thousand at the end of Q1. This is about 5 times the carrying value in 2003.

Note: FDIC insured institutions have other REO and this is just the 1-4 family residential REO (other REO includes Construction & Development, Commercial, Farm Land).

Of course this is just a small portion of the total REO. Here is a repeat of the graph I posted last week showing REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie, FHA, Private Label Securities (PLS), and FDIC insured institutions. (economist Tom Lawler has provided some of this data).

Total REO decreased to 493,000 in Q2 from almost 550,000 in Q1.

As Tom Lawler noted: "This is NOT an estimate of total residential REO, as it excludes non-FHA government REO (VA, USDA, etc.), credit unions, finance companies, non-FDIC-insured banks and thrifts, and a few other lender categories." However this is the bulk of the REO - probably 90% or more. Rounding up the estimate (using 90%) suggests total REO is around 548,000 in Q2.

Important: REO inventories have declined over the last couple of quarters. This is a combination of more sales and fewer acquisitions due to the slowdown in the foreclosure process. There are many more foreclosures coming - see my earlier post on Mortgage Delinquencies and REOs.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 28th

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2011 11:35:00 AM

From CNBC: Major Exchanges in NY Still Expect to Open Monday

Main U.S. stock exchanges Nasdaq, NYSE and BATS expect to open trading on Monday as usual despite Hurricane Irene, although a final decision, especially on opening the Big Board floor, is yet to come.

The main question right now is whether public transportation in New York City will be restored by Monday morning. ... The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and market operators NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq OMX Group and others plan a conference call at 1 p.m. ET Sunday to discuss power outages and New York City transportation ...

Best wishes to all in Irene's path.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 28th

by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2011 08:50:00 AM

From the International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Christine Lagarde: Global Risks Are Rising, But There Is a Path to Recovery. Some excerpts:

The global economy continues to grow, yet not enough. Some of the main causes of the 2008 crisis have been addressed, yet not adequately. There remains a path to recovery, yet we do not have the luxury of time.
...
Developments this summer have indicated that we are in a dangerous new phase. The stakes are clear: we risk seeing the fragile recovery derailed. So we must act now.
...
[European] banks need urgent recapitalization. They must be strong enough to withstand the risks of sovereigns and weak growth. This is key to cutting the chains of contagion. If it is not addressed, we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, or even a debilitating liquidity crisis. The most efficient solution would be mandatory substantial recapitalization—seeking private resources first, but using public funds if necessary. One option would be to mobilize EFSF or other European-wide funding to recapitalize banks directly, which would avoid placing even greater burdens on vulnerable sovereigns.

Sounds like the TARP.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 28th

by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2011 07:46:00 PM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 27, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Activities of the FDIC contributed to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week as they released their enforcement actions through July 2011. In all, there were eight additions and four removals, which leaves the list at 988 institutions with assets of $403.0 billion compared with 984 institutions and assets of $412.5 billion last week. Asset figures were updated from 2011q1 to 2011q2, which caused aggregate assets to drop by $11.1 billion. The net of additions and removals this week caused assets to rise $1.7 billion.

For the month of August, there were 14 additions, eight unassisted mergers, seven failures, and six action terminations for a net decline of seven institutions. On a monthly basis, the list has experienced a net decline in three of the past five months mainly from a slowing of new additions, increasing unassisted mergers, and a steady pace of failures.

The removals this week were all action terminations by the FDIC against Bank of the Bluegrass and Trust Company, Lexington, KY ($219 million); CrossFirst Bank Leawood (f/k/a Town & Country Bank), Leawood, KS ($86 million); Princeville State Bank, Princeville, IL ($62 million); and Utah Community Bank, Sandy, UT ($30 million).

Among the eight additions this week are Alliance Bank, Lake City, MN ($624 million); International Finance Bank, Miami, FL ($419 million); First State Bank, Lonoke, AR ($264 million); and The Citizens Bank of Logan, Logan, OH ($256 million).

Other additions include the FDIC issuing Prompt Corrective Action orders against Central Progressive Bank, Lacombe, LA ($398 million) and SunFirst Bank, Saint George, UT ($213 million).

The following demographic changes were made to the list: First Capital Bank, Marianna, FL ($44 million) changes its name to Chipola Community Bank; Golden Coast Bank, Long Beach, CA ($41 million) changed its name to Evergreen International Bank; Atlantic Coast Bank, Waycross, GA ($804 million) moved its headquarters to Jacksonville, FL; Heritage First Bank, Orange Beach, Al ($54 million) moved its headquarters to Gulf Shores; The Palmetto Bank, Laurens, SC ($1.3 billion) moved its headquarters to Greenville; and United Trust Bank, Bridgeview, IL ($42 million) moved its headquarters to Palos Heights.

CR note: The FDIC released the Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile last week. The FDIC reported:

The number of institutions on the FDIC's "Problem List" fell for the first time in 19 quarters. The number of "problem" institutions declined from 888 to 865. This is the first time since the third quarter of 2006 that the number of "problem" banks fell. Total assets of "problem" institutions declined from $397 billion to $372 billion.

The differences are due to timing and definition. The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public. (CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.)

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest.

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending August 26th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 28th