by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2011 01:40:00 PM

Note: This is one of the industry specific measures that I follow. I only post this every few weeks or so. Looking back at this data during the recession, hotel occupancy first declined in Dec 2007, and then declined sharply in the fall of 2008. Right now the occupancy rate is holding up pretty well.

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: Miami hotels report strong weekly results

Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy rose 3.1% to 67.3%, its ADR increased 4.4% to US$101.80, and its RevPAR finished the week up 7.6% to US$68.53.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average for the occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The summer leisure travel season is ending, and the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is starting to decrease. Right now the occupancy rate is tracking just below the "median" level.

Smith Travel Research also reports that U.S. hotels sold a record number of rooms in July. From Jason Freed at HotelNewsNow Demand records are made to be broken

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2011 11:00:00 AM

From the Kansas City Fed: Manufacturing Sector Continues to Expand Modestly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the August Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to expand modestly, and producers remained generally positive about future months.

“Factory activity in our region continues to be buoyed by strong growth among agriculture and energy-related manufacturers,” said Wilkerson. “New orders accelerated at these firms in August even as some other firms experienced softness. But hiring and capital spending plans remain fairly solid across broader categories of producers.”
...
The month-over-month composite index was 3 in August, unchanged from 3 in July and down from 14 in June. ... Manufacturing activity slowed in nondurable goods factories, while growth in factory activity increased in durable goods producing plants, particularly for machinery, fabricated metal, and electronic equipment products. Other month-over-month indexes were mixed in August. The production index fell from 2 to -2, and the shipments index also moved into negative territory. However, the new orders index rebounded after dropping last month, and the employment and new orders for export indexes also rose.

Here is a table of the regional surveys in July and August; the Dallas Fed Texas Manufacturing will be released on Monday, August 29th.

Manufacturing Survey	July	August
Empire State	-3.76	-7.7
Philly Fed	3.2	-30.7
Richmond Fed	-1	-10
Kansas City Fed	3	3
Dallas Fed	10.8	---

Most of the regional surveys were very weak in August. The ISM index for August will be released Thursday, Sept 1st.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

In the week ending August 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 417,000, an increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 412,000. The 4-week moving average was 407,500, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised average of 403,500.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000 (longer term graph in graph gallery).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week to 407,500.

Weekly claims have increased for two consecutive weeks and the 4-week average is still elevated.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2011 12:10:00 AM

From the NY Times: U.S. May Back Refinance Plan for Mortgages (ht Ann)

One proposal would allow millions of homeowners with government-backed mortgages to refinance them at today’s lower interest rates, about 4 percent, according to two people briefed on the administration’s discussions ...

Administration officials said on Wednesday that they were weighing a range of proposals ... They are also working on a home rental program that would try to shore up housing prices by preventing hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes from flooding the market. ...

But refinancing could have far greater breadth, saving homeowners, by one estimate, $85 billion a year. Despite record low interest rates, many homeowners have been unable to refinance their loans either because they owe more than their houses are now worth or because their credit is tarnished.

This is a recycled suggestion that Tom Lawler criticised last year. There is a already program to do this called Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) that wasn't very successful.

by Calculated Risk on 8/24/2011 05:19:00 PM

From the WSJ: Europe Banks Lean More on Emergency Funding

Commercial banks boosted their reliance on the European Central Bank, borrowing €2.82 billion ($4.07 billion) from an emergency lending facility on Tuesday ... While the amount of borrowing is tiny ... the increase from €555 million a day earlier, nonetheless suggest that some lenders are struggling to borrow from traditional funding sources ... The ECB charges a punitive 2.25% interest rate to borrow from its facility

From Le Monde: Fillon dévoile un plan de 11 milliards d'euros de réduction des déficits

Comme prévu, François Fillon a précisé, mercredi 24 août, l'ampleur et le détail d'un plan de rigueur très attendu. Ce plan d'austérité a été précipité par un ralentissement de la croissance et vise à maintenir les engagements financiers de la France en matière de réduction des déficits.
...
Le total s'élève à 1 milliard d'euros pour 2011 et 11 milliards pour 2012, a détaillé le premier ministre. Il s'agit de la fourchette haute des réductions attendues, estimées entre 5 et 10 milliards d'euros. De même, les révisions des hypothèses de croissance annoncées par Matignon sont assez importantes : 1,75 % au lieu de 2 % pour 2011. Et 1,75 % pour 2012, soit 0,5 % de moins que prévu.
...
Sur TF1, le premier ministre a justifié ces mesures en expliquant qu'elles portaient à "83 %" sur "les détenteurs de patrimoine, les grandes entreprises et les ménages aux revenus très élevés".

That is a deficit reduction of 1 billion euros in 2011 and 11 billion in 2012. France also lowered their growth projections to 1.75% from 2% in 2011, 1.75% in 2012 from 2.25%.

About 83% of the deficit reduction will come from tax increases on corporation and high income earners.