In Depth Analysis: CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 993 Institutions

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2011 08:15:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for July 22, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

This week there were four removals and two additions to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. These changes result in the list having 993 institutions with $415.7 billion in assets, down from 995 institutions with assets of $$416.2 last week.

Failure remains the most likely way to exit the list. Leaving via failure this week were Bank of Choice, Greeley, CO ($1.1 billion); LandMark Bank of Florida, Sarasota, FL ($275 million); and SouthShore Community Bank, Apollo Beach, FL ($46 million Ticker: SSHC). The other removal was an action termination against Alterra Bank (f/k/a 1st Financial Bank), Overland Park, KS ($133 million).

The two additions were Liberty Bank, F.S.B., West Des Moines, IA ($1.0 billion) and Columbia Savings and Loan Association, Milwaukee, WI ($23 million).

Next week, we anticipate the FDIC will release its actions for June 2011.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Reports: Government considering renting REOs, Extending Conforming Loan Limits

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2011 09:30:00 PM

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Government Considers Ways to Rent Foreclosed Homes

The Obama administration is examining ways to pull foreclosed properties off the market and rent them to help stabilize the housing market, according to people familiar with the matter.

While the plans may not advance beyond the concept phase, they are under serious consideration by senior administration officials because rents are rising even as home prices in many hard-hit markets continue to fall due to high foreclosure levels.
I'll have some comments on this over the weekend.

And from Jon Prior at HousingWire: White House to tackle housing reform after debt ceiling fight
A spokesperson for Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) told HousingWire Friday the Obama administration has begun work on a proposal to extend the conforming loan limits, which are set to expire in October. ... Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) and Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.) introduced a bill last week that would extend the elevated loan limits for another two years.
Campbell represents a district in Orange County that will probably be impacted by the lower conforming limits.

Note: Here is a Spreadsheet with the current loan limits and the new loan limits by area (sorted by largest change in limit).

Bank Failure #58: Bank of Choice, Greeley, Colorado

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2011 07:11:00 PM

Bank of Hobson's choice.
Governments way, or highway
Free will delusion

by Soylent Green is People

From the FDIC: Bank Midwest, National Association, Kansas City, Missouri, Assumes All of the Deposits of Bank of Choice, Greeley, Colorado
As of March 31, 2011, Bank of Choice had approximately $1.07 billion in total assets and $924.9 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $213.6 million. ... Bank of Choice is the 58th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fifth in Colorado.
I guess they had no choice.

Bank Failures #56 & 57 in 2011: Two banks in Florida

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2011 06:10:00 PM

Olympian fail
Momentum reversed collapse
Sisyphean task

by Soylent Green is People

From the FDIC: American Momentum Bank, Tampa, Florida, Acquires All the Deposits of Two Florida Banks: Southshore Community Bank, Apollo Beach and LandMark Bank of Florida, Sarasota
As of March 31, 2011, Southshore Community Bank had approximately $46.3 million in total assets and $45.3 million in total deposits; and LandMark Bank of Florida had total assets of $275.0 million and total deposits of $246.7 million. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for Southshore Community Bank will be $8.3 million and for LandMark Bank of Florida, $34.4 million. ... The closings are the 56th and 57th FDIC-insured institutions to fail in the nation so far this year and the eighth and ninth in Florida.
Friday is here!

Goldman Sachs Lowers estimate of Excess Vacant Housing Supply

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2011 04:27:00 PM

The current number of excess vacant housing units is a key piece of data for the housing market. Unfortunately available data is inconsistent.

Economist Tom Lawler has been arguing that many analysts are overestimating the vacant supply by using the HVS - and Lawler has been using the 2010 Census data to make his case. See: The “Excess Supply of Housing” War and Census 2010 Demographic Profile: Highlights, Excess Housing Supply Estimate, and Comparison to HVS

Lawler has also pointed out the most commonly used data for the homeownership rate appears incorrect. The Census Bureau agrees: Census Bureau on Homeownership Rate: We've got “Some 'Splainin' to Do”

Today Goldman Sachs lowered their estimate of the excess supply.

While the decennial census data are from the largest sample, we do not believe it is appropriate to ignore the other sources. ...

With the 2010 Census results in hand, we would now say that excess vacancies in the housing market are 1.5 to 3.5 million units—a wide range, reflecting discrepancies in the available data.

Clearly though, the census results suggest the risks to our previous estimate of 3.5 million units are to the downside. ... [A]t the current rate of housing production and with household growth of one million per year, it would take 5.1 years to clear 3.5 million units of excess inventory, but only 2.2 years to clear 1.5 million units of excess inventory.
A range of 2.2 years to 5.1 years to clear the excess inventory? We need better data!

Lawler thinks the excess supply is closer to the low end of that range.

Note: The Census Bureau is looking at the various data sources now, and is expected to provide analysis on the differences soon.