by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2011 01:55:00 PM

Here is the weekly update on hotels from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: Luxury segment leads weekly increases

Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy rose 3.7% to 69.2%, ADR increased 3.3% to US$101.73, and RevPAR finished the week up 7.2% to US$70.37.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average for the occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The summer leisure travel season is now starting, and the occupancy rate will increase over the next few of months. Right now the occupancy rate is tracking closer to 2008 than to 2010 - and well above 2009.

Even though the occupancy rate has mostly recovered back to 2008 levels, ADR and RevPAR are below the pre-recession levels.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

By request, here are links to the posts and graph for May Home Sales:
• New Home Sales in May at 319 Thousand SAAR
• May Existing Home Sales: 4.81 million SAAR, 9.3 months of supply
• Graph Galleries: New Home sales and Existing Home sales

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2011 11:27:00 AM

A couple of updates ...

• FHA Sells record number of REO (Real Estate Owned) in May.

In Q1, Fannie and Freddie were foreclosing at record levels - and selling REO even faster - so their REO inventory actually declined. However, the FHA was apparently having REO inventory problems and the FHA's REO inventory increased in Q1.

It now appears the FHA REO problem has been solved. The FHA sold a record number of REO in April, and even more in May.

According to data from HUD (ht Keith Jurow), the FHA acquired 6,727 REO in May and sold a record 12,671 properties. The FHA REO inventory has declined from 69,958¹ at the end of Q1 2011, to 60,587 at the end of May 2011. It appears REO at the F's will decline again in Q2.

¹REO for March was revised up slightly.

• Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate decreased to 3.53% in May from 3.57% in April. This is down from 4.06% in May 2010. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

The normal serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so this is still very high, but at least it is declining. (I'll post a graph when Fannie release their monthly delinquency report).

Note: These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product: First Quarter 2011 (Third Estimate). This small upward revision, compared to the 2nd estimate, was because of a slight increase in Net exports, and a larger contribution from the change in private inventories - partially offset by a larger decrease in state and local government spending.

From the Census Bureau: Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and Orders May 2011

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May increased $3.6 billion or 1.9 percent to $195.6 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 2.7 percent April decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.9 percent.

This was above the consensus of a 1.6 percent increase.

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2011 07:57:00 PM

First from the WSJ: EU Stops Greek Backtracking

European Union leaders fended off an effort by Greece to water down an austerity and privatization package that is the price for new aid, and EU President Herman Van Rompuy said they were nearing approval on a new rescue program to take Athens until the end of 2014.
...
"We have a deal after the Greek government agreed to more spending cuts and some higher taxes," said the [Greek] official.

More austerity ...

And here is a look at European bond spreads from the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights released yesterday (graph as of June 22nd).

From the Atlanta Fed:

Since the April FOMC meeting, the 10-year Greece-to-German bond spread has widened by nearly 400 basis points (bps) through June 22. The spreads for Ireland and Portugal have soared by 157 bps and 199 bps, respectively, over the same period.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The spreads for Greece, Ireland and Portugal are all near record highs. The spreads for both Ireland and Portugal are about as high as Greece a couple of months ago!

Spreads for Spain and Italy have increased recently, but are still much lower than for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

The second graph shows the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads:

From the Atlanta Fed:

The CDS spread on Greek debt has widened about 500 basis points (bps) since the April FOMC meeting, while those on Portuguese and Irish debt continue to be high.

The Greek 2 year yield was up to 28.6% today. The ten year yield was up to 16.9%.

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2011 04:10:00 PM

• The big story of the day was the announcement of the release of oil from reserves. From the WSJ: U.S., IEA to Release Oil from Reserves

[T]he International Energy Agency said its members will release 60 million barrels of crude from emergency stocks, half from the U.S. strategic reserve, to offset production lost to the unrest in Libya, only the third time in its history that the IEA has intervened in this way.

• From CNBC: Greece Agrees on Austerity Plan With EU, IMF: Report

Greece won the consent of a team of EU-IMF inspectors for its new five-year austerity plan after committing to an additional round of tax rises and spending cuts, both Reuters and Dow Jones reported Thursday.

• And on house prices from Radar Logic:

The 25-MSA RPX Composite price increased two percent month over month ... Nevertheless, the change in the RPX Composite from January to April was negative for only the third time in the last ten years

The Radar Logic index is based on public records of all closed housing transactions nationally for the month of April, expressed as a price per square foot (not a repeat sales index). This is another index showing a bounce in April.

Radar Logic has a pretty good track record of predicting Case-Shiller house prices, so this prediction was especially interesting:

Last month, we predicted that the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City composite for March 2011 would be about 152 and the 20-City composite would be roughly 138. In fact, the 10-City composite was 151.66 and the 20-City composite was 138.16.

This month, we expect the April 2011 10-City composite index to be about 153 and the 20-City index to be roughly 140.

This is for the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Case-Shiller data - and usually April is seasonally a tough month for Case-Shiller (since it is an average of closed transactions in February, March and April). This would be the first increase in Case-Shiller NSA since last July, and the first increase seasonally adjusted (SA) since last June.

The Case-Shiller index will be released next Tuesday.

And on May Home Sales:
• New Home Sales in May at 319 Thousand SAAR
• May Existing Home Sales: 4.81 million SAAR, 9.3 months of supply
• Graph Galleries: New Home sales and Existing Home sales