by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2011 09:00:00 AM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index^TM

Press Release: Pulse of Commerce Index Falls 0.9 percent in May

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), issued today by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.9 percent on a seasonally and workday adjusted basis in May, after falling 0.5 percent in April.

“The index has now declined in four of the first five months of 2011, and in eight of the past twelve months,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. ... “On a year over year basis, the PCI was flat in May. This was disappointing in that it ended a string of seventeen straight months of year over year improvement in the index,” Leamer continued. “One small glimmer of good news is that May of last year was the strongest month of 2010, and this month’s result nearly cleared that hurdle. Nevertheless, the PCI showed no growth, and this is another indication that the economy is stuck in neutral.”

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the index since January 2000.

“Over time, the PCI has proven to be a leading and amplified indicator of both Industrial Production and GDP,” explained Craig Manson, senior vice president and Index expert for Ceridian. “The May result further reinforces our long-held cautious outlook for below consensus growth in GDP, and suggests that second quarter GDP growth will be less than 2 percent. Similarly, the PCI is anticipating Industrial Production to show modest growth of 0.05 percent for May when the number is released by the Government on June 15, 2011.”
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The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ is based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking ...

This index was useful in tracking the slowdown last summer.

Note: This index does appear to track Industrial Production over time (with plenty of noise).

by Calculated Risk on 6/08/2011 07:22:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.4 percent from one week earlier. ... The adjusted Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.54 percent from 4.58 percent, with points decreasing to 0.95 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest 30-year contract rate since November 19, 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four week average of purchase activity is moving sideways at about 1997 levels. Of course there is a very high percentage of cash buyers right now, but this suggests weak existing home sales through mid-year (not counting cash buyers). Note that mortgage rates have fallen to the lowest level since last November.

by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2011 08:12:00 PM

As I mentioned this morning, CoreLogic released the Q1 2011 negative equity report today.

CoreLogic ... today released negative equity data showing that 10.9 million, or 22.7 percent, of all residential properties with a mortgage were in negative equity at the end of the first quarter of 2011, down slightly from 11.1 million, or 23.1 percent, in the fourth quarter. An additional 2.4 million borrowers had less than five percent equity, referred to as near-negative equity, in the first quarter.

Here are a couple of graphs from the report:

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the distribution of negative equity (and near negative equity). The more negative equity, the more at risk the homeowner is to losing their home.

Close to 10% of homeowners with mortgages have more than 25% negative equity. This is trending down slowly - the decline is apparently mostly due to homes lost in foreclosure.

The second graph from CoreLogic shows the default rate by percent negative equity.

The default rate increases the more 'underwater' the property, and the default rate really increases with Loan-to-values (LTV) of 125% or more.

Note that most homes with LTVs of 125% are still current. Many of these people will be stuck in their homes for years - or eventually default.

The third graph shows the break down of negative equity by state. Note: Data not available for Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming.

"Nevada had the highest negative equity percentage with 63 percent of all mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (50 percent), Florida (46 percent), Michigan (36 percent) and California (31 percent). ... Las Vegas led the nation with a 66 percent negative equity share, followed by Stockton (56 percent), Phoenix (55 percent), Modesto (55 percent) and Reno (54 percent)."

by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2011 03:45:00 PM

From Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke: The U.S. Economic Outlook

U.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower than expected. Aggregate output increased at only 1.8 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, and supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan are hampering economic activity this quarter. A number of indicators also suggest some loss of momentum in the labor market in recent weeks. We are, of course, monitoring these developments. That said, with the effects of the Japanese disaster on manufacturing output likely to dissipate in coming months, and with some moderation in gasoline prices in prospect, growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year. Overall, the economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed and underemployed workers.
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Although the recent increase in inflation is a concern, the appropriate diagnosis and policy response depend on whether the rise in inflation is likely to persist. So far at least, there is not much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy; indeed, increases in the price of a single product--gasoline--account for the bulk of the recent increase in consumer price inflation.
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Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established.

by Calculated Risk on 6/07/2011 11:52:00 AM

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports carload traffic in May 2011 increased 0.5 percent compared with the same month last year (essentially flat), and intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers) increased 7.5 percent compared with May 2010.

On the carload side, May 2011 was not especially impressive, following a not especially impressive April. U.S. freight railroads originated 1,159,328 carloads in May, an average of 289,832 per week. That’s up 0.5% (5,960 carloads for the month) on a seasonally unadjusted basis over May 2010, though it was up 16.4% (163,308 carloads) over May 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).

As the first graph shows, rail carload traffic collapsed in November 2008, and now, 2 years into the recovery, carload traffic has only recovered about half way. From AAR:

For the year to date through May, total U.S. rail carloadings in 2011 were 6,110,554, up 3.2% (186,751 carloads) over the first five months of 2010. Neither 2011 nor 2010 include the Memorial Day holiday.

For the last two months, traffic has been tracking 2010 (no growth from last year). Of course auto traffic was down in May.

The second graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers):

In contrast to carload traffic, U.S. rail intermodal traffic continues to be impressive. U.S. railroads originated 932,956 intermodal trailers and containers in May 2011, an average of 233,239 per week and up 7.5% (65,440 units) over May 2010 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Seasonally adjusted U.S. rail intermodal traffic was up 0.8% in May 2011 over April 2011, the sixth straight monthly increase.

Intermodal’s weekly average in May 2011 of 233,239 units was the second highest May ever. The highest May ever was in 2006 at 233,516 units per week.
excerpts with permission

So intermodal traffic is essentially at record highs, but carload traffic (commodities and autos) is only about half way back to pre-recession levels.