by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2011 10:15:00 AM

Note: Apparently the graph server had a problem this morning. It appears to be working now (all the links were OK). Here is the employment graph gallery. Sorry for the inconvenience.

This was a very disappointing report.

There were few jobs created (only 54,000 total and 83,000 private sector). The unemployment rate increased from 9.0% to 9.1%, even though the participation rate was unchanged at 64.2%. Note: This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. I expect the participation rate to move a little higher as the job market improves, and that will keep the unemployment rate elevated all year.

The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours, and average hourly earnings increased slightly. "In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $22.98. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings increased by 1.8 percent."

We have to remember that this is just one month - even if the numbers were dismal. So far the economy has added 908,000 private sector jobs this year, or about 181 thousand per month. There have been 783,000 total non-farm jobs added this year or 157 thousand per month. This is a better pace of payroll job creation than last year, but the economy still has 6.95 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession. At this pace (157 thousand jobs per month), it will take almost 4 years just to get back to the pre-recession level, or sometime in late 2014 or early 2015!

There are a total of 13.9 million Americans unemployed and 6.2 million have been unemployed for more than 6 months. Very grim numbers.

Overall this was a weak report and reminds us that unemployment and underemployment are critical problems in the U.S.

Percent Job Losses During Recessions

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - this time aligned at the start of the recession.

In the previous post, the graph showed the job losses aligned at maximum job losses.

In terms of lost payroll jobs, the 2007 recession is by far the worst since WWII.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged in May at 8.5 million. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) decreased slightly to 8.548 million in May from 8.6 million in April.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased slightly to 15.8% in May from 15.9% in April. This is very high.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 6.2 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job. This was up from 5.839 million in April. This remains very high, and long term unemployment is one of the defining features of this employment recession.

• Earlier Employment post: May Employment Report: 54,000 Jobs, 9.1% Unemployment Rate

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2011 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

Nonfarm payroll employment changed little (+54,000) in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains continued in professional and business services, health care, and mining. Employment levels in other major private-sector industries were little changed, and local government employment continued to decline.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +221,000 to +194,000, and the change for April was revised from +244,000 to +232,000.

The following graph shows the employment population ratio, the participation rate, and the unemployment rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The unemployment rate increased to 9.1% (red line).

The Labor Force Participation Rate was unchanged at 64.2% in May (blue line). This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force. The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although some of the decline is due to the aging population.

The Employment-Population ratio was unchanged at 58.4% in May (black line).

The second graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms aligned at maximum job losses. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

The current employment recession is by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms, and 2nd worst in terms of the unemployment rate (only the early '80s recession with a peak of 10.8 percent was worse).

This was well below expectations for payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate was higher than expected (both worse). I'll have much more soon ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2011 09:31:00 PM

From the LA Times: Foreclosure settlement to come in a 'matter of weeks,' HUD secretary says

A settlement between a coalition of federal and state agencies and banks over foreclosure practices will come in a “matter of weeks,” Shaun Donovan, secretary of Housing and Urban Development, told the Los Angeles Times.
...
Banks have said they are willing to pay a settlement of $5 billion, according to Bloomberg News, while government officials have pushed for a settlement of as much as $25 billion, according to Times reporting.

This isn't just about the amount, but also how the money is counted. The banks want to count "cash for keys" payments and possibly even principal reduction - in other words for costs they are already paying. Not much of a penalty.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2011 05:44:00 PM

From the Financial Times: US job relocation activity picks up sharply

Companies that specialise in corporate relocations said they were seeing double-digit increases in their businesses compared with the same period a year ago. They added that corporate relocations ... are far outpacing more modest gains in other types of moves such as those by members of the military or government employees.
excerpt with permission

This may be increasing, but it is from a very low level.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas tracks manager mobility each quarter. In 2010, there were a record low percent of job seekers who relocated for a new position (percent of those who found jobs). The percentage picked up a little in Q1 2011, but it is an easy comparison to last year.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is the quarterly data from Challenger, Gray through Q1 2011. Mobility has been trending down for some time, but collapsed in 2010.

It appears the lower mobility was related to the housing market. The Financial Times notes that the first question many companies ask when interviewing out-of-area potential hires is: "What do you owe on your house?"

It is tough to move when you can't sell your home. Sometimes the new employer will pick up the short fall for key executives and managers, but it is probably too expensive for potential hires with serious negative equity.

by Calculated Risk on 6/02/2011 02:22:00 PM

There are no specifics yet ...

From Reuters: EU agrees in principle on new Greek plan-source

Senior euro zone officials have agreed in principle on a new three-year adjustment programme for Greece to run until mid-2014 ... involve some participation of private sector investors ... involve detailed commitments by Greece on the governance of a new national wealth agency and the timing of specific privatisations, but it would stop short of intrusive international supervision ...

There had been some discussion of "adult supervision" or what some were calling the loss of Greek sovereignty - apparently that isn't included. It isn't clear what the "participation of private sector investors" means, but the article suggests it will not trigger a credit event.