by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2011 11:45:00 AM

J.D. Power and Associates: High Gas Prices and Lower Incentive Levels Contributing to Dismal Start for May New-Vehicle Retail Sales (ht Tim waiting for 2012)

"Retail sales in May are being hit by several negative variables—specifically, high gas prices, lower incentive levels and some inventory shortages," said Jeff Schuster, executive director of global forecasting at J.D. Power and Associates. "As a result, the industry will likely be dealing with a lower sales pace at least through the summer selling season, putting pressure on the 2011 outlook."

J.D. Power is projecting total light vehicle sales of 11.9 million in May (SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate). This would be down from 13.2 million in April, and only up slightly from 11.6 million in May 2010.

The projected decline in sales is mostly due to the tragedy in Japan and related supply chain issues:

The earthquake, tsunami and resulting nuclear power plant crisis in Japan have caused numerous production disruptions thus far due to parts shortages for the Japanese manufacturers. This is expected to continue throughout the second quarter of 2011, with more than 400,000 units of production expected to be lost in the short term.

However most of the decline in production will be in Japan:

The North American production forecast in 2011 has been reduced slightly, with volume now rounding down to 12.8 million units (from 12.9 million units).

So auto production in the U.S. is forecast to decline slightly although retail sales will be off sharply over the next six months.

There are already articles suggesting smart buyers wait until the automakers start offering incentives again. From Jerry Hirsch at the LA Times: Best option for car shoppers: Postpone buying

"If people were paying attention they would have bought in March and April. Now, if they have the latitude, it is probably best to wait," said Jeremy Anwyl, chief executive of Edmunds.com

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

The dashed line is April estimated sales rate of 13.2 million SAAR.

The sales rate will probably drop back to the level of last summer for the next 6 months or so, and then rebound later this year. This auto slowdown has already shown up in the regional manufacturing surveys - and also in the initial weekly unemployment claims.

The key is this decline is being driven mostly by events in Japan, and is not a sign of overall weakness in the economy. Although this will be drag on GDP growth in Q2 and Q3, I don't think the drag will be huge.

Yesterday ...
• Summary for Week Ending May 20th
• Schedule for Week of May 22nd

by Calculated Risk on 5/22/2011 08:11:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 20, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

There were many changes to Unofficial Problem Bank List because of failure and the OCC releasing its actions through mid-April 2011. In all, there were 12 additions and seven removals, which leaves the list at 988 institutions with assets of $423.9 billion. Last week, the list had 983 institutions with assets of $425.4 billion.

The removals include the three failures this week -- Atlantic Southern Bank, Macon, GA ($781 million Ticker: ASFNE); First Georgia Banking Company, Franklin, GA ($780 million); and Summit Bank, Burlington, WA ($147 million). Actions were terminated against Central Pacific Bank, Honolulu, HI ($3.9 billion Ticker: CPF); CenTrust Bank, National Association, Northbrook, IL ($103 million); and The First National Bank of Farragut, Shenandoah, IA ($35 million). The other removal is Union National Community Bank, Lancaster, PA ($446 million), which merged on an unassisted basis with Union Community Bank FSB, Lancaster, PA.

Among the 12 additions are Old Second National Bank, Aurora, IL ($2.1 billion Ticker: OSBC); Great Lakes Bank, National Association, Blue Island, IL ($642 million Ticker: GLFL); and SCB Bank, Shelbyville, IN ($256 million Ticker: BRBI). Also, the OCC issues a Consent Order against Southwestern National Bank, Houston, TX ($319 million), which was removed prematurely two weeks ago when the OCC terminated the Formal Agreement against the bank.

Next week, the FDIC should release its actions through April 2011. Given that the list stands at 988 institutions, there is an outside chance the could go over 1,000 institutions next week.

Yesterday ...
• Summary for Week Ending May 20th
• Schedule for Week of May 22nd

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2011 09:54:00 PM

From Mary Ellen Podmolik at the Chicago Tribune: Sinking values prompting homeowners to consider strategic default as best business decision (ht Ann)

Marty Likier ... put almost 20 percent down to purchase a $312,000 townhouse in Westmont in 2006 and lived there until two years ago, when he remarried and bought a home in Chicago Ridge. For a year he rented the townhouse. When a change in rules at the community meant Likier's days as a landlord would end, he called his lender and asked if he could rework the loan, but he didn't have enough equity left to refinance the $240,000 mortgage.
...
Likier ... decided last fall that the struggle wasn't worth it.

He listed the townhouse ... [and has dropped the price to] $179,000, which is lower than the unit sold for when it was built in 1999. He stopped paying the mortgage in January and recently was served with foreclosure papers.

Despite the fact that he and his wife are employed and have an annual household income near $150,000, he's comfortable with his decision.

A few comments:
• These properties with large negative equity positions are like ticking time bombs for the banks. Eventually these owners will grew tired of the monthly loss, and try to take action. Corelogic reported there were 11.1 million properties with negative equity at the end of last year, and close to 5 million properties with more than 25% negative equity.

• It sounds like this owner could afford the payment as long as he had the unit rented. If the homeowner association changed the rules, he might have legal recourse.

• And talking about recourse ... Illinois is a judicial foreclosure state and a deficiency judgment is pretty automatic. With his household income, Mr. Likier will probably be hearing from the bill collectors soon (Ann notes that it would help if his new wife makes most of the income since she probably wasn't on the condo loan).

Earlier ...
• Summary for Week Ending May 20th
• Schedule for Week of May 22nd

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2011 07:07:00 PM

Since the world didn't end ...
• Summary for Week Ending May 20th
• Schedule for Week of May 22nd

From the WSJ: France Signals a Shift on Greece

French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde signaled Paris might support a rescheduling of Greek debt, warning that Greece is at risk of default if it doesn't do more to bring its public finances into order.
...
"What we certainly don't want is a state bankruptcy, a default, in Europe," Ms. Lagarde said in an interview published Friday in Austria's Der Standard newspaper. "You can use a lot of words—reprofiling, restructuring, re-this, re-that—but what there won't be is a restructuring of Greek debt." At the same time, she said: "We would accept anything that is based on a voluntary accommodation by banks."

"If the banks decided unilaterally after contacting the Greek authorities to offer a lengthening of the repayment time frame, she wouldn't be against it," Ms. Lagarde's spokesman said

Lagarde's comments carry significant weight, and she is the leading candidate to become the new IMF managing director, from the Irish Times: EU leaders set to nominate Lagarde for IMF post

And from Bloomberg: Italy Outlook Revised to Negative by S&P, Prompting Vow of Faster Reforms

Italy’s “current growth prospects are weak, and the political commitment for productivity-enhancing reforms appears to be faltering,” S&P said. “Potential political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage. As a result, we believe Italy’s prospects for reducing its general government debt have diminished.”

The yield on Greece ten year bonds increased to a record 16.6% and the two year yield was up slightly to 25.5%.

Here are the ten year yields for Ireland at 10.5%, Portugal at 9.4%, Italy at 4.8%, and Spain at 5.5%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/21/2011 02:11:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending May 20th

The key reports this week will be New Home Sales on Tuesday (more depression for homebuilders), the second estimate for Q1 GDP on Thursday (expect an upward revision), and the Personal Income and Outlays report for April on Friday (an early hint at consumer spending in Q2).

There are also a number of regional Fed speeches this week, and the FDIC will probably release the Q1 quarterly banking profile, although no release date is scheduled.

It will be interesting to see if lower gasoline prices show up in the final Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment report on Friday. Also the initial weekly unemployment claims on Thursday will be closely watched for signs of renewed labor market weakness.

----- Monday, May 23rd -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April). This is a composite index of other data.

----- Tuesday, May 24th -----
8:25 AM: Speech, Fed Governor Elizabeth Duke on Financial Education,
At the Conference on "The Future of Life-Cycle Saving and Investing," Boston, Massachusetts

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for April from the Census Bureau.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the March sales rate.

The consensus is for sales at a 300 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in April, unchanged from the March sales rate.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey for May. The consensus is for the survey to show modest expansion with a reading of 10.

----- Wednesday, May 25th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through mid-year (not counting all cash purchases).

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 3.0% decrease in durable goods orders after increasing 4.1% in March.

10:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for March. This is based on GSE repeat sales and is no longer as closely followed as Case-Shiller (or CoreLogic).

----- Thursday, May 26th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of claims increased over the last month, although claims appear to be trending down again.. The consensus is for a decrease to 404,000 from 409,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Q1 GDP (second estimate). This is the second estimate for Q1 GDP from the BEA.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years.

The advance estimate was for 1.8% annualized growth in Q1. This was below trend growth (around 3.1%) - and very weak for a recovery, especially with all the slack in the system. The blue column is for Q1.

The consensus is for an upward revision to 2.1% annualized real GDP growth.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for May. The index was at 14 in April, down from a record 27 in March.

----- Friday, May 27th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for April. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through March (2005 dollars).

PCE increased 0.5% in March, but real PCE only increased 0.2% as the price index for PCE increased 0.4 percent in March.

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income in April, and a 0.4% increase in personal spending, and for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for May). The consensus is for a slight increase to 72.5 from the preliminary reading of 72.4.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for April.

Best wishes to All!