by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2011 11:42:00 AM

By request ...

From Reuters: EU energy chief says Japan reactor "out of control"

Europe's energy chief warned on Wednesday of a further catastrophe at Japan's nuclear site in the coming hours but his spokeswoman said he had no specific or privileged information on the situation.

"In the coming hours there could be further catastrophic events, which could pose a threat to the lives of people on the island," Guenther Oettinger told the European Parliament. ... "The cooling systems did not work, and as a result we are somewhere between a disaster and a major disaster,"

From Reuters: Japan earthquake LIVE (an excellent site to follow events)

From the NY Times: Japan Says 2nd Reactor May Have Ruptured With Radioactive Release

NHK English

IAEA Update on Japan Earthquake

Japanese authorities have reported concerns about the condition of the spent nuclear fuel pool at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 and Unit 4. Japanese Defense Minister Toshimi Kitazawa announced Wednesday that Special Defence Forces helicopters planned to drop water onto Unit 3, and officials are also preparing to spray water into Unit 4 from ground positions, and possibly later into Unit 3. Some debris on the ground from the 14 March explosion at Unit 3 may need to be removed before the spraying can begin.

Best wishes to all.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2011 08:30:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Total housing starts were at 479 thousand (SAAR) in February, down 22.5% from the revised January rate of 618 thousand, and barely up from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).

Single-family starts decreased 11.8% to 375 thousand in February - the lowest level since early 2009.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for over two years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit.

Here is the Census Bureau report on housing Permits, Starts and Completions.

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 479,000. This is 22.5 percent (±9.8%) below the revised January estimate of 618,000 and is 20.8 percent (±9.0%) below the February 2010 rate of 605,000.

Single-family housing starts in February were at a rate of 375,000; this is 11.8 percent (±10.0%) below the revised January figure of 425,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 96,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 517,000. This is 8.2 percent (±3.3%) below the revised January rate of 563,000 and is 20.5 percent (±3.5%) below the February 2010 estimate of 650,000.

Single-family authorizations in February were at a rate of 382,000; this is 9.3 percent (±1.2%) below the revised January figure of 421,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 121,000 in February.

This was well below expectations of 560 thousand starts, and near the record low.

This low level of starts is good news for housing, and I expect starts to stay low until more of the excess inventory of existing homes is absorbed. Note: This is the lowest level for Building permits since the Census Bureau started tracking permits.

by Calculated Risk on 3/16/2011 07:13:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Purchase Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 0.9 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index recorded in the survey since December 2010. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 4.0 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.79 percent from 4.93 percent, with points increasing to 1.07 from 0.87 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest contract 30-year rate observed in the survey since the week ending January 14, 2011.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four-week moving average of the purchase index is still at 1997 levels, and even with the large percentage of cash buyers recently, this still suggests fairly weak home sales through April. Note: Refinance activity has picked up a little with lower mortgage rates.

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2011 10:24:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

Based on available local MLS sales stats, I estimate that US existing home sales this February were down very slightly from last February’s pace on an unadjusted basis. Assuming that this February’s seasonal factor is little changed from last February’s (which is what I expect), existing home sales on a seasonally adjusted basis should come in at an annual rate of around 5.0 million, which would be down about 6.7% from January’s pace, though January sales seemed a bit high relative to my local tracking. Such a drop seems large relative to the pending home sales index in the previous few months, though adverse weather in many parts of the country appear to have delayed closings and may account for some of this “discrepancy.”

On the “inventory” front, local MLS data suggest that on aggregate existing home listings were little changed to a tad down from January, despite the normal seasonal increase. If the NAR reports flat existing home inventories for February relative to January, then inventories will show a decline from a year ago – which would be consistent with local MLS reports (in aggregate). A caution here, however: the NAR’s reported monthly drop in inventories exceeded my tracking, and in the past the NAR’s monthly increase in February has exceeded estimates based on local tracking.

CR notes:
• This would put the months-of-supply around 8 months, up from the 7.6 months reported in January.
• This is before the new "benchmark revision" that will be released this summer. I expect the benchmark revision to show significantly lower sales for the last few years.

Earlier:
• Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates faster growth in March
• NAHB Builder Confidence increases slightly in March, Still depressed
• Residential Remodeling Index shows strong increase year-over-year

by Calculated Risk on 3/15/2011 07:46:00 PM

By request ...

From Reuters: Flames no longer visible at Fukushima Daiichi No.4 reactor-NHK

From Reuters: Japan earthquake LIVE

Breaking: TEPCO says it is considering dispersing boric acid over the No.4 plant from a helicopter

From the NY Times: Fire Erupts at Troubled Reactor; Helicopters May Be Used at Plant

From the WSJ: New Fire Breaks Out at Damaged Reactor.

NHK English

IAEA Update on Japan Earthquake

Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that the evacuation of the population from the 20-kilometre zone around Fukushima Daiichi has been successfully completed.

The Japanese authorities have also advised that people within a 30-km radius to take cover indoors.

Best wishes to all.