by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2010 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Private-sector employment increased by 43,000 from September to October on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from August to September was revised up from the previously reported decline of 39,000 to a smaller decline of 2,000.

Since employment began rising in February, the monthly gain has averaged 34,000 with a range of -2,000 to +65,000 during the period. October’s figure is within this recent range and is consistent with the deceleration of economic growth that occurred in the spring. Employment gains of this magnitude are not sufficient to lower the unemployment rate.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

The consensus was for ADP to show an increase of about 20,000 private sector jobs in October, so this was above consensus.

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus a 60,000 increase in payroll jobs in October, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis and for the unemployment rate to stay steady at 9.6%.

by Calculated Risk on 11/03/2010 07:32:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Purchase Applications Increase, while Refinance Applications Decline in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 6.4 percent from the previous week. This is the third straight week the Refinance Index has decreased. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.4 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.28 percent from 4.25 percent, with points increasing to 1.07 from 1.00 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The four-week moving average of the purchase index decreased 2.7% last week, and is about 30% below the levels of April 2010. This suggests existing home sales will remain weak through the end of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2010 11:59:00 PM

Just a preview - tomorrow will be busy ...

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +20,000 payroll jobs in October - still weak, but an improvement over the 39,000 jobs reported lost in September.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase in October to around 12.0 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 11.76 million in September. If correct, this will be highest sales rate in 2 years (excluding Cash-for-clunkers in August 2009).

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for September. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in orders. Also important will be the growth in inventories, and the inventory-to-sales ratio.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for an increase to 54.0 from 53.2 in September.

2:15 PM: FOMC statement released. The key will be how the FOMC will implement the 2nd round of quantitative easing.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2010 06:54:00 PM

To make it easier to review the most recent version of frequently updated graphs, I've created a set of graph galleries (thanks to Ken!).

The Graph Galleries are grouped by Employment, New Home Sales, and much more. There are tabs for each gallery.

Clicking on a tab will load a gallery. Then thumbnails will appear below the main graph for all of the graphs in the selected gallery. Clicking on the thumbnails will display each graph.

The title below each large image is a link to the related blog post on Calculated Risk (I'll put the date in the title to show the most recent update).

To access the galleries, just click on a graph on the blog - or click on "Graph Galleries" in the menu bar above.

As an example, clicking on this graph (based on the most recent employment report), will open the "employment" chart gallery and display this graph - with thumbnails for other employment related graphs.

The "print" key displays the full size image of the selected graph for printing from your browser.

Note: The graphs are free to use on websites or for presentations. All I ask is that online sites link to my site http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/ (or to the graphics gallery), and that printed presentations credit www.calculatedriskblog.com.

Enjoy. Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 11/02/2010 04:46:00 PM

Since apparently there is an election today, here is a reminder from Sandhya Somashekhar at the WaPo of the key issue: Economic worries overshadow other issues

[O]ne issue is [in voters'] minds like no other this year: the economy. Nearly 40 percent of voters in a recent Washington Post poll rated the nation's fiscal[CR Note: they meant "economic"] situation as their top concern in the days leading to the election ...

Yes - as always - it's the economy.

The good news is the robo-calls and election ads will stop.