by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2010 03:21:00 PM

From Eric Wolff at the North County Times: Lender woes unlikely to halt California foreclosures

The pace of foreclosures in California will continue unabated, despite paperwork improprieties that drove three of the nation's biggest mortgage lenders to suspend foreclosures in 23 states last week, real estate attorneys said Monday.
...
Last week, GMAC Mortgage LLC, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America said they needed to review thousands of crucial legal documents that they may have signed without reading. But the documents only matter in states that require a judge's order for a foreclosure. The three lenders suspended foreclosures in these states, but announced no changes to their activities in California.

Most foreclosures in California are non-judicial, so there will probably be little impact on the pace of foreclosures.

And - all else being equal - the housing market in states that require judicial foreclosures will probably be under pressure for a longer period than states with non-judicial foreclosures. Just more bad news for Florida and other judicial states.

And another point - there is a national mortgage market, but each state has their own foreclosure laws. Mortgages should probably be priced based on the local foreclosure laws (higher rates for judicial states), and on whether the mortgage is recourse or non-recourse. Different mortgage rates would probably push the states to more uniform foreclosure laws.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2010 12:59:00 PM

From a WSJ interview with Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Jon Hilsenrath writes: Fed Official Calls for Aggressive Action

"In the last several months I've stared at our unemployment forecast and come to the conclusion that it's just not coming down nearly as quickly as it should," [Chicago Fed President Charles] Evans said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal Monday. "This is a far grimmer forecast than we ought to have," he added. As result, he said, he favors "much more [monetary] accommodation than we've put in place."
...
[Evans] has grown frustrated with a lack of progress in bringing down unemployment and is now forecasting inflation of 1% in 2012 and below 1.5% in 2013, well below his own 2% goal.

Although Evans is not a voting member of the FOMC this year, he will be next year.

According to the article, Evans is forecasting inflation to be below target for the next three years - and for the unemployment rate to remain very high. This month the Fed Presidents will present their revised forecasts, and I think the tone will be generally grim.

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2010 10:00:00 AM

The September ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 53.2%, up from 51.5% in August - and above expectations of 52.0%. The employment index showed slight expansion in September at 50.2%, up from 48.2% in August. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

From the Institute for Supply Management: September 2010 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in September for the ninth consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 53.2 percent in September, 1.7 percentage points higher than the 51.5 percent registered in August, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 1.6 percentage points to 52.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 10th consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in August. The New Orders Index increased 2.5 percentage points to 54.9 percent, and the Employment Index increased 2 percentage points to 50.2 percent, indicating growth in employment for the third time in the last five months. The Prices Index decreased 0.2 percentage point to 60.1 percent, indicating that prices increased in September at a slightly slower rate. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. Respondents' comments continue to be mixed about business conditions, with a slight majority reflecting optimism."
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2010 09:02:00 AM

From the WSJ: Bank of Japan Cuts Key Rate

The Bank of Japan [announced] a 35 trillion yen ($418 billion) monetary easing program ... while cutting interest rates to virtually zero. It also launched a 5 trillion yen program to buy private- and public-sector assets.

... the BOJ said the new program was designed to "encourage the decline in longer-term interest rates and various risk premiums to further enhance monetary easing."

The central bank acknowledged its move was "an extraordinary measure for a central bank." Bank of Japan Gov. Masaaki Shirakawa said Tuesday that the central bank's [decision] was based on a worse-than-expected outlook for the domestic economy.

The Japan central bank will be buying corporate debt in addition to government debt.

by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2010 11:59:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting in 1991.

Reis is reporting the vacancy rate rose to 17.5% in Q3 2010, up from 17.4% in Q2 2010, and up from 16.6% in Q3 2009. The peak following the previous recession was 16.9%.

From the WSJ Signs of Recovery For Office Market

[O]ffice buildings in 79 metropolitan areas tracked by Reis lost 1.9 million square feet of occupied space in the third quarter, pushing the national office vacancy rate to 17.5%, the highest level since 1993.
...
Average effective rents ... fell by just a penny in the last three months, the smallest quarterly decline since 2008.

It appears the rate of increase in the vacancy rate has slowed - and rents may be stabilizing.

Reis should release the Mall and Apartment vacancy rates over the next few days, and those will probably be at record levels.