by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions held relatively steady in New York’s manufacturing sector in September. The general business conditions index remained positive, although it slipped 3 points to 4.1. The new orders and shipments indexes were both up moderately for the month, at levels signaling stable activity.
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Employment indexes were positive, suggesting that employment levels and the average workweek continued to expand over the month. The degree of optimism about the six-month outlook continued to deteriorate, with the future general business conditions index hitting its lowest level since early 2009.

These regional surveys have been showing a slowdown in manufacturing and are being closely watched right now. This was slightly below expectations.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2010 07:14:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 10.8 percent from the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent from one week earlier.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.47 percent from 4.50 percent, with points increasing to 1.08 from 0.96 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Purchase applications are at about the levels of 1996 or 1997, suggesting existing home sales (closed transactions) in August, September and even October, will only be slightly higher than in July. Note: economist Tom Lawler's "early read" is for August existing home sales of 4.1 million SAAR.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2010 09:28:00 PM

Notes: this data is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Loaded inbound traffic was up 24% compared to August 2009. Inbound traffic is now up 4% vs. two years ago (August '08).

Loaded outbound traffic was down 2.6% from August 2009. Unlike imports, exports are still off from 2 years ago (off 17%).

For imports there is usually a significant dip in either February or March, depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year, and then usually imports increase until late summer or early fall as retailers build inventory for the holiday season. So part of this increase in August imports is just the normal seasonal pattern.

Based on this data, it appears the trade deficit with Asia increased again in August. Not only have the pre-crisis global imbalances returned, but exports appear to have peaked in May (no clear seasonal pattern), and have moved sideways or down over the last 6 months.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2010 05:50:00 PM

CR Note: This is from housing economist Tom Lawler:

The “early read” on existing home sales based on regional data suggests that existing home sales ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 4.1 million in August, up around 7% from July’s pace.

My “best guess” right now on the pending home sales index is that it will show a seasonally adjusted increase from July to August of around 4%.

CR Note: some bounce back was expected. This would put the months of supply around 11.5 months. This sales rate would be at about the levels of 1996 or 1997. Existing home sales for August will be released next week on Thursday (Sept 23rd).

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2010 03:30:00 PM

This is the new UCLA Anderson Forecast and Ceridian Corporation index using real-time diesel fuel consumption data: Pulse of Commerce Index^TM

Press Release: August PCI Decline Signals Struggling Economy, but no Double-Dip

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI) by UCLA Anderson School of Management fell 1 percent in August, a disappointing number that closes out an erratic summer in the PCI.
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“The August data is obviously discouraging after the cautious optimism created from July’s report,” said Ed Leamer, chief PCI economist. “There is not much to feel good about with the August data in terms of the unemployment picture, but there is a silver lining in that the August PCI is still far from double-dip territory."
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“The restocking of inventory and exceptional growth in imports that were helping drive the transportation of goods and materials appears to be over,” said Craig Manson, senior vice president and index expert for Ceridian.
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The PCI is based on an analysis of real-time diesel fuel consumption data from over the road trucking tracked by Ceridian ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the index since January 1999.

This is a new index, and doesn't have much of a track record in real time, although the data appears to suggest that the recovery has slowed - even stalled - over the last 4 months.