by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2010 11:25:00 AM

Usually I don't post all the regional manufacturing surveys, but it appears manfuacturing is slowing right now - and the regional surveys provide early clues ...

From the Kansas City Fed:

Tenth District manufacturing activity slowed in August, and producers were somewhat less optimistic than in previous months.
...
The net percentage of firms reporting month-over-month increases in production in August was 0, down from 14 in July ... The shipments, new orders, and employment indexes dropped into negative territory, and the order backlog index slipped from -2 to -16.

This is the lowest level for the Kansas City survey since August 2009.

Yesterday I compared the ISM PMI (to be released next week) with the regional Fed surveys, and based on these surveys, I expect the PMI to fall further in August.

Note on MBA: I'll post analysis of the MBA Q2 delinquency data after I receive the material (some sort of glitch this morning).

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2010 11:06:00 AM

On the MBA conference call concerning the "Q2 2010 National Delinquency Survey", MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann said this morning:

Survey covers about 88% of mortgage market.

Mixed news in Q2.

Percent of loans in foreclosure down.

Foreclosure starts fell.

90+ day delinquent category dropped sharply. Some of this decline is because modifications were included as delinquent until the borrower had made several payments - and some of these borrowers with modifications are now being considered current.

However short term delinquencies are increasing again.

Delinquencies and foreclosure starts continue to move to prime fixed rate and FHA loans.

"Improvements are more of a hope". Some of the key factors leading to improvement "may not continue through the year".

From MarketWatch: Foreclosure inventory down, new delinquencies up

The percentage of mortgage loans somewhere in the foreclosure process was 4.57% in the second quarter, down from 4.63% in the first quarter; the percentage is still up from 4.3% a year ago. However, the percent of loans one payment behind is now a seasonally adjusted 3.51%, said Jay Brinkmann, the MBA's chief economist

Note: I have not received the press release or materials. Hopefully I'll have more later today.

by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Aug. 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 473,000, a decrease of 31,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 504,000. The 4-week moving average was 486,750, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 483,500.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Aug. 14 was 4,456,000, a decrease of 62,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,518,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased this week by 3,250 to 486,750. This is the highest level since November 2009.

Weekly claims are very volatile, and most people follow the 4-week average to smooth out the weekly noise. It is good news that the number of initial claims declined from last week, but the level of claims - and the 4-week average - suggests a weak job market.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2010 10:51:00 PM

The 10-year Ireland-to-German bond spread has risen to 344 bps, up from 318 bps yesterday. This spread is larger than during the financial crisis in May when the spread peaked at 306 bps.

The 10-year Greece-to-German bond spread is now 926 bps, just below the peak level of 963 bps in May.

The MBA will release the Q2 2010 National Delinquency Survey (NDS) at 10 AM ET. I'll have a couple of post with graphs and conference call comments.

And a couple of posts today:

New Home Sales declined to Record Low in July

And a graph comparing the regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the ISM PMI. This shows why I think the PMI will decline further in August.

Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2010 06:31:00 PM

From the American Trucking Association: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Rose 1.5 Percent in July

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 1.5 percent in July, although June’s reduction was revised from 1.4 percent to 1.6 percent. The latest improvement raised the SA index from 108.3 (2000=100) in June to 110 in July.
...
Compared with July 2009, SA tonnage climbed 7.4 percent, which matched June’s increase and was the eighth consecutive year-over-year gain. Year-to-date, tonnage is up 6.7 percent compared with the same period in 2009.

ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said that July’s data didn’t change his outlook for subdued tonnage growth in the months ahead, stating, “The economy is slowing and truck freight tonnage has essentially gone sideways since April 2010.”

This graph from the ATA shows the Truck Tonnage Index since Jan 2006 (no larger image).

This index has been moving sideways for several months ...