by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 06:10:00 PM

Florida condos
Ghostly towers of failure
Like area banks
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Centennial Bank, Conway, Arkansas, Acquires All of the Deposits of Two Institutions in Florida

As of March 31, 2010, Bayside Savings Bank had total assets of $66.1 million and total deposits of $52.4 million. Coastal Community Bank had total assets of $372.9 million and total deposits of $363.2 million.
...
The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $16.2 million for Bayside Savings Bank and $94.5 million for Coastal Community Bank. ... These two closings bring total closures for the year to 106 banks in the nation, and the 19th and 20th in Florida. Prior to these failures, the last bank closed in Florida was Sterling Bank, Lantana, on July 23, 2010.

Three down today.

Note: The FDIC released the June enforcement actions today, and the unofficial list will be over 800 tonight.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 05:30:00 PM

Red ink rivers rise
Bankers pray for sweet relief.
Survival in doubt
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: State Bank and Trust Company, Macon, Georgia, Assumes All of the Deposits of NorthWest Bank and Trust, Acworth, Georgia

As of March 31, 2010, NorthWest Bank and Trust had approximately $167.7 million in total assets and $159.4 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $39.8 million. ... NorthWest Bank and Trust is the 104th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the 11th in Georgia. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Crescent Bank and Trust Company, Jasper, on July 23, 2010.

It is Friday!

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 03:44:00 PM

How the NAR calculates existing home inventory is a bit of a mystery. However housing economist Tom Lawler has been tracking inventory several different ways. For July, Lawler reports listings totaled 4,038,133, up about 1.6% from June (using Realtor.com). And this brings us to the double digit months-of-supply watch ...

For June, the NAR reported sales were at a 5.37 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), and inventory was at 3.992 million.

To calculated the months of supply, divide 3.992 by 5.37 and multiply by 12 months.

This gives 8.92 months-of-supply (note: there is a seasonal pattern for inventory, but the NAR uses the NSA data).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 'months-of-supply' metric.

The NAR reported that the months-of-supply increased to 8.9 months in June.

Since we know sales collapsed in July (based on pending home sales and other reports), and using Lawler's estimate for the level of inventory, we can calculate how far sales would have had to fall in July to hit double digits months-of-supply:

For: Months of Supply	Then: July Sales (millions, SAAR)
10	4.85
11	4.40
12	4.04

For 12 months of supply, the sales rate (SAAR) would equal inventory.

My initial guess is we will see double digit months-of-supply in July, and for a number of the months thereafter. We might even break the cycle high of 11.2 months set in 2008. If months-of-supply increases sharply as I expect, then there will be additional downward pressure on house prices.

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 02:04:00 PM

In the previous post I confused annual rates and quarterly rates. Sorry.

Real PCE is 0.85% below the pre-recession peak, so PCE would have to grow at 3.4% in Q3 for the economy to be back to the pre-recession level.

Real GDP is 1.1% below the pre-recession peak, so GDP would have to grow at 4.3% in Q3 to be back to the pre-recession level.

With a 2nd half slowdown, I don't expect to reach those levels until the end of the year or in 2011.

Note: the graphs and quarterly data are all correct - just the annual comment that I added was in error (ht Tehan)

by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2010 11:32:00 AM

Error Correction: Sorry - I confused annual rates and quarterly rates.

Real GDP is 1.1% below the pre-recession peak, so if GDP would have to grow at 4.4% in Q3 the economy to be back to the pre-recession level.

Real PCE is 0.85% below the pre-recession peak, so PCE would have to grow at 3.4% in Q3 to be back to the pre-recession level.
________________________________________________________

These two graphs show the revisions for real GDP and PCE.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The recession was clearly worse than originally estimated (we suspected this already using Gross Domestic Income).

In fact real GDP in Q2 2010 was lower than originally reported for Q1 2010. And annualized real GDP is still 1.1% below the pre-recession peak. This means that real GDP would have to grow at a 4.3% rate over the next quarter to reach the recession peak.

This shows that St Louis Fed President Bullard was too optimistic in a speech last month. From Bullard in June: The Global Recovery and Monetary Policy

"As of the first quarter of 2010, real GDP stands just shy of the 2008 second quarter level, so that growth of about 1.25 percent would be sufficient to allow real GDP to surpass the previous peak. At that point, the U.S. economy would be fully "recovered" from the very sharp downturn of late 2008 and early 2009. To be clear, the 1.25 percent is a quarterly number, and would be 5.0 percent at an annual rate. Although I think that 5.0 percent at an annual rate is too much to expect for current quarter real GDP growth, it seems like a reasonable possibility over the next two quarters combined. Given these conditions, I expect the U.S. recovery in GDP to be complete in the third quarter of this year."

I disagreed with him, and pointed out that GDI suggested downward revisions.

Real PCE was revised down even more.

Annualized real PCE is now 0.85% below the pre-recession peak, and would have to grow 3.4% over the next quarter to reach the previous peak.

Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto had it right in February: When the Small Stuff Is Anything But Small

[I]t may take years just to get back to the level of output we enjoyed in 2007, just before the economic crisis began.

If things go well, the economy will be back to pre-recession levels later this year or in 2011. No wonder there is so little investment. And no wonder there is so little hiring!