by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2010 11:32:00 AM

The following graph from the BofA Second Quarter 2010 Earnings Presentation says more about the FHA than BofA (ht Brian):

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

For BofA, the 30+ day deliquency trends continue to improve.

That red line at the top that is still increasing? That includes FHA insured residential mortgages ...

Notice how the risk has been shifted to the FHA.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2010 10:01:00 AM

From Reuters: Consumer Sentiment Sinks To Lowest in 11 Months

The survey's preliminary July reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment plummeted to 66.5 from 76.0 in June.

The figure was below the median forecast of 74.5 among economists polled by Reuters.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator - and this is further evidence of an economic slowdown.

Interesting - the survey's one-year inflation expectations increased to 2.9% even as measured inflation has been falling.

by Calculated Risk on 7/16/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS report on the Consumer Price Index this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the index increased 1.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.
...
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in June after increasing 0.1 percent in May. ... The 12-month change in the index for all items less food and energy remained at 0.9 percent for the third month in a row.
...
The index for owners' equivalent rent also rose 0.1 percent, its first increase since August 2009 ...

Even with the slight monthly increase, Owners' equivalent rent (OER) is down year-over-year.

The general disinflationary trend continues - CPI is unchanged over the last 8 months - and with all the slack in the system (especially the 9.5% unemployment rate), CPI will probably stay low or even fall further.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2010 07:45:00 PM

From HUD: HUD seeks Public Comment on Three Initiatives to Boost FHA Capital Reserves

For the next 30 days, HUD is seeking public comment on the following policy changes, each of which are designed to mitigate risk to the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund while promoting sustainable homeownership for FHA borrowers:

1. Update the combination of credit and down payment requirements for new borrowers. New borrowers seeking FHA-insured financing will be required to have a minimum FICO score of 580 to qualify for FHA’s flagship 3.5 percent down payment program. New borrowers with credit scores of less than a 580 will be required to make a cash investment of at least 10 percent. Borrowers with credit scores of less than 500 will no longer qualify for an FHA-insured mortgage.

2. Reduce allowable seller concessions from six to three percent. Allowing sellers to contribute up to six percent of the home’s sales price to offset a buyer’s costs exposes the FHA to excess risk by potentially driving up the cost of the home beyond its appraised value. Reducing seller concessions to three percent will bring FHA into conformity with industry standards.

3. Tighten underwriting standards for manually underwritten loans. When using compensating factors in the underwriting process, lenders will be required to consider those factors which are the best predictive indicators of loan performance, such as the borrower’s credit history, loan-to-value (LTV) percentage, debt-to income ratio, and cash reserves.

This will become effective after the 30 day comment period - so around August 15th.

Update: For more details, here is the public notice.

by Calculated Risk on 7/15/2010 03:58:00 PM

From the WSJ: Oil Stops Flowing as BP Tests Cap

From the SEC:

The SEC Enforcement Division is holding a news conference at 4:45 p.m. ET to make a significant announcement.

There will be a webcast here. Rumors are about Goldman Sachs - but we will know in 45 minutes.

UPDATE: Goldman Sachs settles with SEC, agrees to pay $550 million.

News release

The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced that Goldman, Sachs & Co. will pay $550 million and reform its business practices to settle SEC charges that Goldman misled investors in a subprime mortgage product just as the U.S. housing market was starting to collapse.

In agreeing to the SEC's largest-ever penalty paid by a Wall Street firm, Goldman also acknowledged that its marketing materials for the subprime product contained incomplete information.

Goldman Consent

Proposed judgment