by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2010 09:45:00 AM

From the Institute for Supply Management – Chicago:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the CHICAGO BUSINESS BAROMETER indicated the breadth of expansion showed little change, and chalked up a ninth month of growth.

The overall index declined to 59.1 from 59.7 (just below expectations). Note: any number above 50 shows expansion.

Employment improved to 54.2 after showing a decline (below 50) in May.

The new orders index declined again to 59.1 from 62.7. This is the lowest level this year.

The national ISM manufacturing index will be released tomorrow.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2010 08:15:00 AM

ADP reports:

Nonfarm private employment increased 13,000 from May to June 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the ADP National Employment Report®. The estimated change in employment from April to May 2010 was revised up slightly, from the previously reported increase of 55,000 to an increase of 57,000.

June’s rise in private employment was the fifth consecutive monthly gain. However, over these five months the increases have averaged a modest 34,000. Recent ADP Report data suggest that, following steady improvement through April, private employment may have decelerated heading into the summer.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This is below the consensus forecast of ADP showing an increase of 60,000 private sector jobs in June.

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for a decrease of 100,000 payroll jobs in June, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, with the loss of around 250,000 temporary Census 2010 jobs (+150,000 ex-Census).

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2010 07:18:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Refinance Applications Increase as Rates Continue to Drop in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 12.6 percent from the previous week and is the highest Refinance Index observed in the survey since the week ending May 22, 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.3 percent from one week earlier.
...
“Amid continuing financial market volatility, mortgage rates dropped again last week, with rates on 15-year loans reaching a record low for the MBA survey. Refinance applications jumped in response, but remain at about half the level seen in the spring of 2009,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Purchase applications declined for the seventh time in the last eight weeks, keeping the purchase index near 13-year lows.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.67 percent from 4.75 percent, with points decreasing to 0.96 from 1.07 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. This is the lowest 30-year contract rate recorded in the survey since the week ending April 24, 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The purchase index has collapsed following the expiration of the tax credit suggesting home sales will fall sharply too. This is the lowest level for 4-week average of the purchase index since 1996.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2010 10:57:00 PM

Just an update ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Shanghai SSE Composite Index and the S&P 500 (in blue).

The SSE Composite Index is at 2,384 - down almost 2% and off almost 25% since early April.

This is the lowest level since April 2009.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2010 07:03:00 PM

From Reuters: U.S. House backs homebuyer tax credit extension

This is bad policy ... and the Senate will probably pass it tomorrow.