by Calculated Risk on 6/18/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the LA Times: Feds charge 1,200 people in mortgage fraud crackdown

[F]ederal authorities said Thursday that they had filed criminal charges in recent months against 1,200 mortgage brokers and others accused of cheating banks and borrowers of $2.3 billion.
...
In one of the New York cases, a tax preparer is accused of selling fake pay stubs and tax documents to mortgage and real estate brokers, who allegedly used the documents to apply for loans. Authorities said 17 people were indicted as a result of that investigation.

In another New York case, prosecutors allege that a company offered to help struggling homeowners around the country but did nothing once the borrowers paid the firm's upfront fees.

This is a start ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2010 11:59:00 PM

From Paul Krugman in the NY Times: That '30s Feeling

Suddenly, creating jobs is out, inflicting pain is in. Condemning deficits and refusing to help a still-struggling economy has become the new fashion everywhere ...

Many economists, myself included, regard this turn to austerity as a huge mistake. It raises memories of 1937, when F.D.R.’s premature attempt to balance the budget helped plunge a recovering economy back into severe recession.

And as if on cue, from Alan Greenspan wrties in the WSJ: U.S. Debt and the Greece Analogy

An urgency to rein in budget deficits seems to be gaining some traction among American lawmakers. If so, it is none too soon.

I believe Greenspan is flat wrong - just as he was in 2001 when he Greenspan spoke of "an on-budget surplus of almost $500 billion ... in fiscal year 2010". Greenspan offered a projection of "an implicit on-budget surplus under baseline assumptions well past 2030 despite the budgetary pressures from the aging of the baby-boom generation, especially on the major health programs."

I argued Greenspan was wrong then, and I believe he is wrong now.

I believe the focus right now needs to be on jobs, jobs and jobs.

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2010 09:18:00 PM

Previous Merle Hazard hits include Inflation or Deflation?, H-E-D-G-E and Mark to Market ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2010 06:47:00 PM

From Zach Fox at SNL Financial: Analysts believe loan mod redefaults could hit 70%

Diane Westerback, S&P's managing director of global surveillance analytics, told SNL that the previously reported 30% to 40% redefault rates typically only count borrowers after two or three months of payments. A year after the modification, Westerback expects redefaults to hit between 60% and 70%.
...
Fitch Ratings on June 16 issued similar projections, albeit only for subprime and Alt-A loans in RMBS. The rating agency projects modifications on those product types to redefault at a 65% to 75% range, while prime loans in RMBS are expected to redefault at a rate of 55% to 65%.

More shadow inventory ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/17/2010 04:02:00 PM

Here are two graphs from the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights released today (graph as of June 16th):

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

From the Atlanta Fed:

After initially declining in early May, sovereign debt spreads have begun widening for peripheral euro-area countries. As of June 16, the 10-year bond spread (over German bonds) stands at 640 basis points (bps) for Greece, 283 bps for Ireland, 274 bps for Portugal, and 209 bps for Spain.

The spread to Spanish bonds has increased 110 bps since May 11, from 1% to 2.09%, while Portuguese bond spreads are 121 bps higher during the same period.

Note: The Atlanta Fed data is one day old. Nemo has links to the current data on the sidebar of his site.

The spreads have widened further today: Greece is up to 668 bps, Ireland 290 bps, Portugal 293 bps, and Spain 211 bps. Oh, and Hungary is up sharply to 495 bps.

Similarly, while CDS spreads declined slightly last week, they are wide relative to earlier this year.

Apparently this is what IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn meant by "contained" last week.