by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2010 08:30:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Total housing starts were at 593 thousand (SAAR) in May, down 10% from the revised April rate of 659,000 (revised down from 672 thousand), and up 24% from the all time record low in April 2009 of 477 thousand (the lowest level since the Census Bureau began tracking housing starts in 1959).

Single-family starts collapsed 17.2% to 468,000 in May. This is 30% above the record low in January 2009 (360 thousand).

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have mostly been moving sideways for over a year.

Here is the Census Bureau report on housing Permits, Starts and Completions.

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 593,000. This is 10.0 percent (±10.3%)* below the revised April estimate of 659,000, but is 7.8 percent (±9.7%)* above the May 2009 rate of 550,000.

Single-family housing starts in May were at a rate of 468,000; this is 17.2 percent (±7.9%) below the revised April figure of 565,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 574,000. This is 5.9 percent (±2.2%) below the revised April rate of 610,000, but is 4.4 percent (±2.6%) above the May 2009 estimate of 550,000.

Single-family authorizations in May were at a rate of 438,000; this is 9.9 percent (±2.1%) below the revised April figure of 486,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 117,000 in May.

Note that permits fell sharply, suggesting another significant decline in housing starts next month. This is way below expectations (I took the under!), and is good news for the housing market longer term (there are too many housing units already), but bad news for the economy and employment short term.

by Calculated Risk on 6/16/2010 07:11:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 21.1 percent from the previous week. This is the highest Refinance Index recorded in the survey since May 2009. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.3 percent from one week earlier, which is the first increase in six weeks.
...
“Mortgage applications for home purchases increased last week, the first increase in over a month. Refinance applications also picked up significantly over the week,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “While it is clear that purchase applications in May dropped sharply as a result of the tax credit induced increase in applications in April, it is unclear whether we are seeing the beginnings of a rebound now.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.82 percent from 4.81 percent, with points decreasing to 0.89 from 1.02 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The purchase index has collapsed following the expiration of the tax credit suggesting home sales will fall sharply too. This is the lowest level for 4-week average of the purchase index since February 1997.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2010 11:59:00 PM

From the WSJ: Currency Fall Curbs Europe's Taste for New York Property

Although there are no hard figures, the article mentions ab estimate of 15% to 20% of Manhattan condo buyers are Europeans. Apparently demand from European buyers has declined sharply.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices. Foreign buying - especially from Europeans because of the strong euro - was one of the reasons NY house prices had only fallen 21.1% from the peak.

With the weaker euro, and a substantial number of condos coming on the market later this year, prices will probably fall further in New York.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2010 09:28:00 PM

Jim the Realtor thinks Bank of America was taken on this deal. This 4,374 sq ft house, on two acres, is in a great location in Rancho Santa Fe (upscale San Diego). The loan was $3.2 million, and the short sale was for $1.575 million.

This was another "5 second" listing. Some agents list short sales for less than a minute to show the bank the listing ... and then keep the entire process secret. I've heard stories of sales to relatives, friends, or the listing agent just wanting both sides of the deal. If this was listed on the open market, Jim thinks it would have sold for substantially more.

by Calculated Risk on 6/15/2010 05:55:00 PM

From DataQuick: Southland sales at 4-year high

Note: as always I ignore the median price and use the repeat sales indexes from Case-Shiller and CoreLogic.

Southern California home sales rose last month in all but the lowest price categories as buyers took advantage of tax credits and low mortgage rates. ... A total of 22,270 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 9.7 percent from 20,299 in April, and up 7.2 percent from 20,775 in May 2009, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

May sales were the highest for that month since May 2006, but they still fell 15.0 percent short of the average number sold in May since 1988, when DataQuick’s statistics begin. The 9.7 percent increase in sales between April and May compares with an average change of 6 percent since 1988.
...
“The important thing to remember, though, is that what we saw in May was partly driven by government stimulus,” he continued. “In the second half of the year the market will have to stand on its own again, barring new forms of government involvement. Prices will be tested if there’s any sudden move by lenders to release a flood of distressed properties.”

Foreclosure resales accounted for 33.9 percent of the resale market last month, down from 36.4 percent in April and 49.8 percent a year earlier. The all-time high for foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – was 56.7 percent in February 2009. Foreclosure resales have waned over the last year as lenders have channeled more distress into loan modifications and short sales.
...
Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but is lower than peak levels reached over the last two years.

And here is the dumb headline of the day: Southern California median home price surges 22.5% (ht JBR). So what? That just says the mix changed ... and that is because the distressed sales are moving on up to higher priced neighborhood.

What matter is this is probably the high point for sales this year. This report includes both new and existing home sales, and new home sales are counted when the contract is signed (peaked in April) and existing home sales are counted when the transaction closes (will peak in May or June).