by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2010 05:50:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Waste on Freight Cars Gains Most Since ’94 Confirming Rebound (ht Brian)

If garbage is any indication, the U.S. economy is strengthening.

The number of freight cars carrying waste jumped 45 percent in April and May from the same period last year ... according to the Washington-based Association of American Railroads.
...
Shipments of waste and scrap have a higher correlation with economic growth than coal or copper, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

And here is the graph:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

From the Association of American Railroads: Rail Time Indicators: Waste and Scrap Materials traffic in May 2010 was "up 37.1% from May 2009 and down 20.4% from May 2008."

Waste traffic was down from the April level. The Bloomberg article suggests this confirms the "economy is strengthening" - I'd say this shows the recovery has been sluggish (still well below the May 2008 level) and the economy might have slowed in May (although one month doesn't make a trend).

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2010 02:00:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: Beige book

Economic activity continued to improve since the last report across all twelve Federal Reserve Districts, although many Districts described the pace of growth as "modest."

On Real Estate:

Residential real estate activity improved since the last report. Most Districts noted an increase in home sales and construction prior to the April 30th deadline for the homebuyer tax credit, with contacts in many of these Districts also indicating a corresponding slowing in activity in May. Tight credit, the elevated inventory of homes available for sale, and the "shadow inventory" of foreclosed properties on banks' balance sheets held back residential development in the New York, Cleveland, Atlanta, and Chicago Districts. Commercial real estate activity generally remained weak. Office, industrial, and retail vacancy rates continued to drift upward in many Districts putting downward pressure on rents. However, lower rents were said to have led to an increase in leasing activity in New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco. The elevated inventory of existing properties for sale or rent continued to weigh on new private nonresidential construction. However, stronger industrial demand was noted in several Districts. Public construction increased in Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Chicago, but slowed in Minneapolis.

This is the first mention of shadow inventory on banks' balance sheet (at least recently).

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2010 12:30:00 PM

Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register notes the fifth anniversary of then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's "Froth" speech: Greenspan’s froth not bubble, 5 years later

“Although a ‘bubble’ in home prices for the nation as a whole does not appear likely, there do appear to be, at a minimum, signs of froth in some local markets where home prices seem to have risen to unsustainable levels.” [said Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, June 9, 2005 in testimony to Congress]

Perhaps to celebrate "Froth Day", Fed Chairman Bernanke made this statement:

[U]nderlying housing activity appears to have firmed only a little since mid-2009, with activity being weighed down, in part, by a large inventory of distressed or vacant existing houses and by the difficulties of many builders in obtaining credit.

So there are too many "distressed or vacant existing houses", and not enough credit for builders to add to that oversupply.

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2010 09:50:00 AM

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the House Budget Committee at 10 AM. The topic is State of the Economy: View from the Federal Reserve

Note: Bernanke has promised not to discuss fiscal policy.

Here is the CNBC feed. (starts at 10 AM ET)

Here is the CSpan feed

Prepared testimony: Economic and financial conditions and the federal budget

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2010 07:33:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 14.3 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier.
...
“Purchase and refinance applications dropped this week, even after an adjustment for the Memorial Day holiday. Purchase applications are now 35 percent below their level of four weeks ago, as homebuyers have not yet returned to the market following the expiration of the homebuyer tax credit at the end of April,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “Although rates remained essentially flat, refinance applications dropped this past week for the first time in a month. Despite the historically low rates, many homeowners have already refinanced recently, remain underwater on their mortgages, have uncertain job situations, or have damaged credit following this downturn, and therefore may not qualify to refinance.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 4.81 percent from 4.83 percent, with points decreasing to 1.02 from 1.05 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

The purchase index has collapsed following the expiration of the tax credit suggesting home sales will fall sharply too. This is the lowest level for the purchase index since February 1997.