by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2010 01:16:00 PM

This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force. The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories as provided by the BLS: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.

As we've discussed before there was more turnover in the '70s and '80s - back then the 'less than 5 weeks' category was much higher as a percent of the civilian labor force than in recent years.

What really makes the current period stand out is the number of people (and percent) that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more (red line). In the early '80s, the 27 weeks or more unemployed peaked at 2.9 million or 2.6% of the civilian labor force.

In May 2010, there were a record 6.763 million people unemployed for 27 weeks or more, or a record 4.38% of the labor force. This is significantly higher than during earlier periods.

It does appear the number of long term unemployed is near a peak (the increases have slowed). But it is still very difficult for these people to find a job - and this is a very serious employment issue.

by Calculated Risk on 6/05/2010 08:33:00 AM

There were a few reports yesterday of a Hungarian official talking about a possible "default", and saying the budget numbers had been "manipulated". A couple of readers (from Hungary), sent me better translations - and the comments were clumsy, and not as scary.

Today from Reuters: Hungary government says aims to meet 2010 deficit goal

Hungary's government said on Saturday it still aimed to meet this year's deficit target, as it sought to draw a line under "exaggerated" talk of a possible Greek-style debt crisis that had unnerved markets a day earlier.

State secretary Mihaly Varga ... said Hungary's previous socialist governments had hidden the true state of the country's public finances, and that additional measures would be needed to reach the 3.8 percent of GDP target.
...
"Those comments which were made on this issue are exaggerated, and if a colleague makes them it is unfortunate," Varga told a news conference.

"I have to say that the situation is consolidated, and the planned deficit (target) is attainable, but for it to be attainable the government must take measures."

This scare helped push the euro to the lowest level against the dollar since March 2006.

More from the WSJ: Hungary Rushes to Calm Markets

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Euro has only been around since Jan 1999. The graph shows the number of dollars per euro since Jan 1, 1999.

The dashed line is the current exchange rate. Just a little further (below 1.1667 dollars per euro), and we will be discussing the lowest level since 2003.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2010 11:03:00 PM

Earlier employment posts today:

May Employment Report: 20K Jobs ex-Census, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks (including graph of job losses during recessions aligned at the bottom)

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 4, 2010.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List finishes the week unchanged in terms of the number of institutions at 762, but there was a substantial increase in assets to $385.9 billion from $369.2 billion.

There were four additions this week including Firstbank of Puerto Rico, Santurce, PR ($18.8 billion Ticker: FBP); Home Savings of America, Little Falls, MN ($472 million); Builders Bank, Chicago, IL ($464 million); and the Bank of Little Rock, Little Rock, AR ($185 million).

Removals include the failed TierOne Bank ($2.8 billion Ticker: TONE) and Arcola Homestead Savings Bank ($17 million). Other removals are from the OCC terminating Formal Agreements against Valley National Bank, Espanola, NM ($337 million) and Standing Stone National Bank, Lancaster, OH ($74 million). However, it is likely these removals will be short-lived as the OCC has frequently replaced a terminated Formal Agreement with a Consent Order during this banking crisis.

We are anticipating the OCC will release its enforcement actions for May by next Friday

CR note: The FDIC reported there were 775 institutions with assets of $431 billion on the official problem bank list at the end of Q1. There are some timing issues, but the overall number of institutions on the unofficial list is very close to the official list. The addition of Firstbank of Puerto Rico has closed the asset gap, but there is the possibility that a large regional bank may be on the official problem bank list.

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2010 07:06:00 PM

Many tears at Top Tier
How have the mighty fallen.
Free falling from peak.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Great Western Bank, Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Assumes All of the Deposits of TierOne Bank, Lincoln, Nebraska

As of March 31, 2010, TierOne Bank had approximately $2.8 billion in total assets and and $2.2 billion in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $297.8 million. ... TierOne Bank is the 81st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Nebraska. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Sherman County Bank, Loup City, on February 13, 2009.

I guess they weren't top tier ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/04/2010 06:08:00 PM

From the FDIC: FDIC Approves the Payout of the Insured Deposits of Arcola Homestead Savings Bank, Arcola, Illinois

The FDIC was unable to find another financial institution to take over the banking operations of Arcola Homestead Savings Bank....

As of March 31, 2010, Arcola Homestead Savings Bank had approximately $17.0 million in total assets and $18.1 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $3.2 million. Arcola Homestead Savings Bank is the 80th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the twelfth in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Midwest Bank and Trust Company, Elmwood Park, on May 14, 2010.

No one wanted this one ...