by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2010 10:43:00 PM

Note: this is the employment section of the April survey that will be released Tuesday.

From the WSJ: At Small Businesses, Hiring Still Drags

April marked the 27th consecutive month in which small businesses either shed more or the same number of jobs that they added, according to a monthly survey to be released Tuesday by the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade group in Washington, D.C. Since July 2008, employment per firm has fallen steadily each quarter, logging the largest reductions in the survey's 35-year history. Going forward, more small-business owners say they plan to eliminate jobs compared with those that expect to create new jobs over the next three months.

And from the National Federation of Independent Business: Jobs Picture Still Bleak for Small Business

“The steep recession will unlikely be followed by a steep recovery, the numbers just aren’t moving in that direction. [said William C. Dunkelberg, chief economist for the National Federation of Independent Business] "April marks the 27th consecutive ‘no new jobs’ monthly reading."

“There is little enthusiasm among owners to hire more workers, primarily due to continued weak sales trends.”

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2010 07:11:00 PM

Here is a 60 Minutes piece on Walking Away, aka 'Strategic Defaults' and as ' Ruthless Defaults' by lenders. (ht Michael).

Just a note - anyone considering this should talk to an attorney, and they should also talk with their lender. If it can be arranged, a short sale is much better than a foreclosure for all parties ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2010 03:55:00 PM

The combined REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA increased by 22% in Q1 2010 from Q4 2009. The REO inventory (foreclosed homes) increased 59% compared to Q1 2009 (year-over-year comparison).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph (ht Tom Lawler) shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q1 2010.

Even with all the delays in foreclosure, the REO inventory has increased sharply over the last three quarters, from 135,868 at the end of Q2 2009, to 153,007 in Q3 2009, 172,357 at the end of Q4 2009 and now 209,500 at the end of Q4 2010.

These are new records for all three agencies.

Remember this is just a portion of the total REO inventory. Private label securities and banks and thrifts hold an even larger number of REOs. For more, see Tom Lawler's earlier post: REO: Agencies vs. Private Label and from James Hagerty at the WSJ in March writing about a Barclays Capital report: Supply of Foreclosed Homes on the Rise Again.

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2010 02:16:00 PM

From the SEC: Statement on Meeting With Exchanges

"This morning, SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro had a constructive meeting with the leaders of six exchanges — the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, BATS, Direct Edge, ISE and CBOE — and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority to discuss the causes of Thursday's market events, the potential contributing factors, and possible market reforms.

"As a first step, the parties agreed on a structural framework, to be refined over the next day, for strengthening circuit breakers and handling erroneous trades."

Why not use technology to slow down price changes on individual stocks? It is amazing that we still don't have an explanation for the weird price changes last Thursday.

by Calculated Risk on 5/10/2010 11:23:00 AM

First American CoreLogic released the Q1 2010 negative equity report today.

CoreLogic reported today that more than 11.2 million, or 24 percent, of all residential properties with mortgages, were in negative equity at the end of the f irst quarter of 2010, down slightly from 11.3 million and 24 percent from the fourth quarter of 2009. An additional 2.3 million borrowers had less than five percent equity. Together, negative equity and near-negative equity mortgages accounted for over 28 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.

From the report:

Negative equity continues to be concentrated in five states: Nevada, which had the highest percentage negative equity with 70 percent of all of its mortgaged properties underwater, followed by Arizona (51 percent), Florida (48 percent), Michigan (39 percent) and California (34 percent). Las Vegas remains the top ranked CBSA with 75% of mortgaged properties being underwater, followed by Stockton (65%), Modesto (62%), Vallejo-Fairfield (60%) and Phoenix (58%). Phoenix had more than 550,000 underwater borrowers, the most households of any metropolitan market in the country. Riverside (463,000), Los Angeles (406,000) Atlanta (399,000) and Chicago (365,000) round out the top five markets.

Click on image for larger graph in new window.

This graph shows the negative equity and near negative equity by state.

Although the five states mentioned above have the largest percentage of homeowners underwater, 10 percent or more of homeowners have negative equity in 33 states and the D.C., and over 20% have negative equity or near negative equity in 23 states and D.C. This is a widespread problem.

Note: Louisiana, Maine, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia and Wyoming are NA on the graph above.

The second graph shows the distribution of homeowners with a mortgage with near or negative equity.

The share of borrowers whose mortgage debt exceeds the property value by 25% or more fell slightly to 10.4% or 4.9 million borrowers, down from 10.6% or 5 million borrowers. The aggregate dollar value of negative equity for these deeply underwater borrowers was $656 billion dollars.

Research has shown that once negative equity exceeds 25 percent "owners begin to default with the same propensity as investors", and it is these 4.9 million borrowers - with $656 billion in debt - that are most at risk for foreclosure.