by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2010 11:15:00 AM

From Tom Abate at the San Francisco Chronicle: Financial leaders dissect meltdown

"What is quite shocking," [John Lipsky, a senior official of the International Monetary Fund] said, is how inadequate the world's regulatory supervisors were in curbing the lax lending standards at the heart of the housing and credit bubbles.

Shocked? Hmmm ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/13/2010 08:26:00 AM

Note: this data is not seasonally adjusted. There is a very distinct seasonal pattern for imports, but not for exports. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

Sometimes port traffic gives us an early hint of changes in the trade deficit. The following graph shows the loaded inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container). Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Loaded inbound traffic was up 33.8% compared to February 2009. (up 9.5% compared to last year using three month average).

Of course trade collapsed in February 2009, so this is a very easy comparison. Inbound traffic was still down 18.3% vs. two years ago (Feb 2008).

Loaded outbound traffic was up 32.7% from February 2009. (+33.5% using three months average) This was also an easy YoY comparison for exports, because U.S. exports fell off a cliff in near the end of 2008.

Just as with imports, exports are still off from 2 years ago (off 10.0%).

And more from Ronald White at the LA Times: Trade numbers climb sharply at Southland ports

Trade numbers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the nation's busiest seaport complex, rose sharply in February compared with the same month last year, lending strength to the arguments of some experts who believe that a stronger-than-anticipated recovery may be underway.
...
"Our feeling is that consumers are coming back. They are spending a bit more of their money. They are less concerned about losing their jobs than they have been in the last three months," said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, which tracks international trade at the nation's busiest seaports for the National Retail Federation.

Hackett said his firm had scaled back its expectations for trade growth in 2010, "but we think we'll be seeing a relatively strong year at a 10% to 14% increase. We should see steady improvement, minus the usual seasonal adjustments."

The LA Times article is using the YoY numbers. However looking at the graph (red line), exports recovered in the first half of 2009, but export traffic has been mostly flat since last summer. The YoY increase for March will be much less than for February!

It is harder to tell about imports (blue line) because of the large seasonal swings.

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2010 10:01:00 PM

A couple excerpts from American Banker: Regulatory Actions Hit a Record Level in '09

"Bank regulators issued 1,143 formal enforcement actions against banks and their holding companies last year, a new record and more than double the 2008 tally."

"Informal actions by the agencies, which are not made public and often go untracked, also doubled during that time, reaching 1,099 last year, according to data provided to American Banker."

According to the FDIC quarterly banking profile, there were 8,012 insured banks at the end of 2009. Some of these actions are double counts since regulators might issue an informal action and then a formal action against the same bank (or multiple formal actions), so we can't say the percentage of banks operating under enforcement actions (either formal or informal), but it could be in the 20% to 25% range.

A couple of quotes from the article:

"For the bank failures that have occurred so far, every one of the large loss reports the inspector general has done or any GAO investigation has concluded the reason the bank has failed is the regulator did not take early enough action or severe enough action." said [Bob Clarke, a senior partner at Bracewell & Giuliani LLP and former comptroller of the currency] said.

I've posted a few of the inspector general reports, and it appears the field examiners identified the problems early - but then insufficient actions was taken. And to put it more bluntly:

"The regulators were asleep for 10 years during the boom and there's now this remarkable turf war under way with regulatory reform," said Chris Low, chief economist for First Horizon National Corp.'s FTN Financial.

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2010 06:07:00 PM

Bair's troops march South, East
Two gulf banks, engulfed by fail
Will they rise again?
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Centennial Bank, Conway, Arkansas, Assumes All of the Deposits of Old Southern Bank, Orlando, Florida

Old Southern Bank, Orlando, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, Old Southern Bank had approximately $315.6 million in total assets and $319.7 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $94.6 million. ... Old Southern Bank is the 29th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the fourth in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Marco Community Bank, Marco Island, February 19, 2010.

From the FDIC: Home Bank, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Statewide Bank, Covington, Louisiana

Statewide Bank, Covington, Louisiana, was closed today by the Louisiana Office of Financial Institutions, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, Statewide Bank had approximately $243.2 million in total assets and $208.8 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $38.1 million. ... Statewide Bank is the 30th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Louisiana. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was The Farmers Bank & Trust of Cheneyville, Cheneyville, December 17, 2002.

Louisiana makes an appearance ...

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2010 05:07:00 PM

Start Spread'n the news
Park Avenue's failed today
Old Blue Eyes would weep...
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Valley National Bank, Wayne, New Jersey, Assumes All of the Deposits of the Park Avenue Bank, New York, New York

The Park Avenue Bank, New York, New York, was closed today by the New York State Banking Department, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ..

As of December 31, 2009, The Park Avenue Bank had approximately $520.1 million in total assets and $494.5 million in total deposits. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $50.7 million. .... The Park Avenue Bank is the 28th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in New York. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was LibertyPointe Bank, New, York, New York, on March 11, 2010.

OK, now it is Friday.