by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 12:58:00 PM

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) uses several measures to determine if the economy is in recession. From the most recent NBER memo:

Because a recession is a broad contraction of the economy, not confined to one sector, the committee emphasizes economy-wide measures of economic activity. The committee believes that domestic production and employment are the primary conceptual measures of economic activity.

The committee views the payroll employment measure, which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. ...

The committee believes that the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate domestic production are normally the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Product and the quarterly estimate of real Gross Domestic Income, both produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ...

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by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 10:36:00 AM

From CNBC: GM's US Auto Sales Rise 11.5 Percent in February

General Motors says its February sales rose 11.5 percent compared with the same month last year ...

This is based on a very easy comparison; in February 2009 U.S. light vehicle sales fell sharply to 9.143 million (SAAR) following the financial crisis and reports of the then impending bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler. February 2009 was the bottom for auto sales.

I'll add reports from the other major auto companies as updates to this post. Toyota will be especially interesting because of the quality issues.

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by Calculated Risk on 3/02/2010 08:41:00 AM

Just something I forgot to mention yesterday ...

Press Release: FHFA Extends Refinance Program By One Year

Federal Housing Finance Agency Acting Director Ed DeMarco today announced the extension of the Home Affordable Refinance Program, (HARP), a refinancing program administered by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to June 30, 2011. ... The HARP program expands access to refinancing for qualified individuals and families whose homes have lost value. The program was set to expire on June 10 of this year.

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by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 09:40:00 PM

Larry Summers on CNBC: "Very important to look past the next [employment] figures." (27 second long after ad)

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by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 07:32:00 PM

Binyamin Appelbaum, at the WaPo, reports that Senators Dodd and Corker (Tenn) are nearing a deal to give authority for financial consumer protection to the Federal Reserve.

Uh, wasn't the Fed already responsible for consumer financial protection?

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