by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:30:00 AM

Private residential construction spending was up slightly in January, but is mostly moving sideways. I expect some growth in residential spending in 2010, but the increases will probably be sluggish until the large overhang of existing inventory is reduced.

Non-residential spending decreased in January, and is now at the lowest level since November 2006. The collapse in non-residential construction spending continues ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending increased slighltly in January, and nonresidential spending declined.

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by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 10:00:00 AM

PMI at 56.5% in February. Down from 58.4% in January, and up from 54.9% in December.

From the Institute for Supply Management: February 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the seventh consecutive month during February. While new orders and production were not as strong as they were in January, they still show significant month-over-month growth. Additionally, the Employment Index is very encouraging, as it is up 2.8 percentage points for the month to 56.1 percent. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the Employment Index. With these levels of activity, manufacturers are seemingly willing to hire where they have orders to support higher employment."

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by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2010 08:30:00 AM

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, January 2010

Personal income increased $11.4 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $47.6 billion, or 0.4 percent, in January, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $52.4 billion, or 0.5 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.3 percent in January, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in December.
...
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $367.2 billion in January, compared with $467.9 billion in December. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 3.3 percent in January, compared with 4.2 percent in December.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 11:59:00 PM

First from Paul Krugman: Financial Reform Endgame

A weak financial reform ... wouldn’t be tested until the next big crisis. All it would do is create a false sense of security and a fig leaf for politicians opposed to any serious action — then fail in the clinch.

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by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 07:25:00 PM

In the Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead post, I included a consensus forecast of a decline in light vehicle sales to 10.4 million units in February, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. That may be a little high ...

From The Detroit News: Snowstorms, Toyota problems cut into February auto sales

When results are released Tuesday, automotive research firm Edmunds.com predicts retail sales will increase 14.2 percent from a year earlier, while research firm TrueCar.com expects a nearly 9 percent bump. ... [On a SAAR basis] Edmunds predicting 10.6 million U.S. sales ... while TrueCar.com anticipates 10.04 million

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