RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 11:59:00 PM
Sunday, February 28, 2010
What about Financial Reform?
First from Paul Krugman: Financial Reform Endgame
A weak financial reform ... wouldn’t be tested until the next big crisis. All it would do is create a false sense of security and a fig leaf for politicians opposed to any serious action — then fail in the clinch.
Auto Sales: Blame it on the Snow and Toyota
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 07:25:00 PM
In the Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead post, I included a consensus forecast of a decline in light vehicle sales to 10.4 million units in February, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. That may be a little high ...
From The Detroit News: Snowstorms, Toyota problems cut into February auto sales
When results are released Tuesday, automotive research firm Edmunds.com predicts retail sales will increase 14.2 percent from a year earlier, while research firm TrueCar.com expects a nearly 9 percent bump. ... [On a SAAR basis] Edmunds predicting 10.6 million U.S. sales ... while TrueCar.com anticipates 10.04 million
Greece Bailout Plan and Further Austerity Measures moving forward
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 03:29:00 PM
From Stephen Castle and Landon Thomas Jr. at the NY Times: Europe Union Moves Toward a Bailout of Greece
[T]he European Union is moving toward the first bailout in the history of its common currency, which is expected to involve loan guarantees from the German and French governments to encourage their banks to buy Greek debt.
Even as the negotiations continue, the bloc is insisting that Athens impose further, painful austerity measures ...
Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 11:55:00 AM
This will be a busy week for economic data, and the focus will be on the BLS February employment report to be released on Friday. The consensus is for a net loss of 50 to 80 thousand payroll jobs, and the unemployment rate to increase slightly to 9.8% (from 9.7%).
There is considerable debate on the impact of the snow storms on the employment report. The BLS will disclose and adjust for any snow related data collection issues, but some hiring might have been delayed because of the storms. However, if so, there will be a bounce back in March - however it is important to remember that the weekly unemployment claims were moving higher before the storms arrived. Also the temporary hiring for the 2010 Census will have increased slightly - I'm sure all of these issues will be widely discussed ...
On Monday, the BEA will release the Personal Income and Outlays report for January. This release is very useful for looking at both Personal Income and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). Also on Monday, the ISM Manufacturing index (consensus is for expansion, but a slight decrease to 57.5% from 58.4%), and the January Construction Spending report from the Census Bureau (consensus is for a decline of 0.5%).
On Tuesday, the various manufacturers will release light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for a decline to about 10.4 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis from 10.8 million in January. Sales for Toyota will be closely watched. Also on Tuesday, the Personal Bankruptcy Filings estimate for February will be released.
1.2 Million to Lose Unemployment Benefits Today
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2010 08:59:00 AM
Just a reminder ...
From John Schmid at the Journal Sentinel: Unemployment benefits for 1.2 million Americans could expire Sunday
Nearly 1.2 million unemployed Americans ... face an imminent cutoff of government unemployment checks if Congress cannot pass emergency legislation to extend federal benefits before funding expires Sunday.
