by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 08:06:00 PM

Cheap Nevada thrills
Bright lights! Fast Times! No Limits!
Woe, The taps gone dry.
by Soylent Green is People
From FDIC: Heritage Bank of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, Assumes All of the Deposits of Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, Nevada

Carson River Community Bank, Carson City, Nevada, was closed today by the Nevada Department of Business and Industry, Financial Institutions Division, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of December 31, 2009, Carson River Community Bank had approximately $51.1 million in total assets and $50.0 million in total deposits....

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $7.9 million. ... Carson River Community Bank is the 21st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Nevada. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Community Bank of Nevada, August 14, 2009.

A small one ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 07:36:00 PM

Press Release: Fannie Mae Reports Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2009 Results

Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $15.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2009 ... For the full year of 2009, Fannie Mae reported a net loss of $72.0 billion...

The fourth-quarter loss resulted in a net worth deficit of $15.3 billion as of December 31, 2009, taking into account unrealized gains on available-for-sale securities during the fourth quarter. As a result, on February 25, 2010, the Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency submitted a request for $15.3 billion from Treasury on the company’s behalf. FHFA has requested that Treasury provide the funds on or prior to March 31, 2010.
...
Although there have been signs of stabilization in the housing market and economy, we expect that our credit-related expenses will remain high in the near term due in large part to the stress of high unemployment and underemployment on borrowers and the fact that many borrowers who owe more on their mortgagees than their houses are worth are defaulting.
...
We expect to have a net worth deficit in future periods, and therefore will be required to obtain additional funding from Treasury ...

I'm old enough to remember when $15 billion was a large number.

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 05:12:00 PM

Note: This index is based on year-over-year performance, and the headline index might be slow to recognize a pickup in business.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction for this index.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Performance Index Declines Slightly in January, But Optimism for Future Business Conditions Strengthens

[T]he Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) ... stood at 98.3 in January, down 0.3 percent from December’s level.

“Although the current situation indicators remained soft in January, the Expectations Index rose above 100 for the first time in 9 months,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of Research and Knowledge Group for the National Restaurant Association. “Restaurant operators are relatively optimistic about improving sales growth and economic conditions in the months ahead, and their capital spending plans rose to the highest level in five months.”

January’s mark of 98.3 represents the 27th consecutive month of an index below 100, which signifies contraction in the index of key industry indicators. The full report is available online.
...
The Current Situation Index, which measures current trends in four industry indicators (same-store sales, traffic, labor and capital expenditures), stood at 96.6 in January – down 0.8 percent from December. In addition, January represented the 29th consecutive month below 100, which signifies contraction in the current situation indicators.
...
Restaurant operators also reported softer customer traffic results in January. Twenty-six percent of restaurant operators reported an increase in customer traffic between January 2009 and January 2010, down from 30 percent who reported higher customer traffic in December. Fifty-four percent of operators reported a traffic decline in January, up from 47 percent who reported lower traffic in December.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 02:24:00 PM

Here is the monthly Freddie Mac hockey stick graph ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Freddie Mac reported that the rate of serious delinquencies - at least 90 days behind - for conventional loans in its single-family guarantee business increased to 4.03% in January 2010, up from 3.87% in December - and up from 1.98% in January 2009.

"Single-family delinquencies are based on the number of mortgages 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure as of period end ..."

Just more evidence of the growing delinquency problem, although some of these loans may be in the trial modification programs and are still included as delinquent until they are converted to a "permanent mod". If the trial is cancelled, the loan stays delinquent (until foreclosure).

The data from Fannie Mae will be released later ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2010 01:29:00 PM

By request, here is a graph overlaying light vehicle sales and existing home sales - and showing the impact of "cash for clunkers" and the "first time home buyer" tax credit. (ht Brian)

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The red line (left axis) is vehicle sales. The blue line (right axis) is existing home sales since Jan 2008. Both are in millions of units at a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR).

The Cash for Clunkers program was effective on July 1, 2009, but didn't really start until near the end of July. The program was expanded in early August, and ended on August 24th.

The First Time Home Buyer tax credit was passed in February with an initial deadline to close on the home by November 30, 2009. The home buyer tax credit was extended and expanded at the end of October, and now buyers must sign a contract by April 30, 2010, and close by June 30, 2010.

There will probably be another surge in existing home sales in May and June (reported when sales close). And then sales will probably decline again.