by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2010 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

There were 2.4 million job openings on the last business day of November 2009, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The job openings rate was little changed over the month at 1.8 percent. The openings rate has held relatively steady since March 2009. The hires rate (3.2 percent) and the separations rate (3.3 percent) were essentially unchanged in November.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Remember the CES (Current Employment Statistics, payroll survey) is for positions, the CPS (Current Population Survey, commonly called the household survey) is for people. See Jobs and the Unemployment Rate for a comparison of the two surveys.

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (purple Line), Quits (light blue bars) and Layoff, Discharges and other (red bars) from the JOLTS. Red and light blue added together equals total separations.

Unfortunately this is a new series and only started in December 2000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Notice that hires (purple line) and separations (red and light blue together) are pretty close each month. When the purple line is above total separations, the economy is adding net jobs, when the blue line is below total separations, the economy is losing net jobs.

According to the JOLTS report, there were 4.176 million hires in November, and 4.340 million separations, or 164 thousand net jobs lost. The comparable CES report showed a gain of 4 thousand jobs in November (after revisions).

Openings near a series low can't be a positive sign. Separations have declined sharply, but hiring has not picked up. This also suggests that eventually (possibly when the March 2010 benchmark revision is announced in Feb 2011), the November net change in employment will be revised down.

by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2010 08:31:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports:

The ... total November exports of $138.2 billion and imports of $174.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $36.4 billion, up from $33.2 billion in October, revised. November exports were $1.2 billion more than October exports of $137.0 billion. November imports were $4.4 billion more than October imports of $170.2 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2009.

Both imports and exports increased in November. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 2.3% and imports are off 5.5%.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through November.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices increased to $72.54 in November - up 85% from the low in February (at $39.22).

Oil import volumes are off 8% from last November.

Overall trade continues to increase, although both imports and exports are still off significantly from the pre-financial crisis levels. Net export growth had been one of the positives for the U.S. economy - but now imports are growing faster than exports.

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2010 10:55:00 PM

It is always nice to be mentioned. Henry Blodget called the graph comparing the percent job losses in post WWII recessions "The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"¹. And then Glenn Beck mentioned the graph too, but ... uh, the Depression wasn't in 1948!

If we had the data, the percent job losses during the Great Depression (in the '30s) would probably have been 20% or more - far worse than the current employment recession. It was the Great Depression that led to the expansion of the BLS program to track employment. From the BLS:

With the deepening economic crisis in 1930, President Herbert C. Hoover appointed an Advisory Committee on Employment Statistics, which recommended extension of the BLS program to include the development of hours and earnings series. In 1932, the U.S. Congress granted an increase in the BLS appropriation for the survey. In 1933, average hourly earnings and average weekly hours were published for the first time for total manufacturing, for 90 manufacturing industries, and for 14 nonmanufacturing categories.

During the Great Depression, there was controversy concerning the actual number of unemployed people; no reliable measures of employment or unemployment existed. This confusion stimulated efforts to develop comprehensive estimates of total wage and salary employment in nonfarm industries, and BLS survey data produced such a figure for the first time in 1936.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Although there is some data on unemployment during the Great Depression, it is based on very rough estimates.

As an example, this graph from Northern Trust shows an estimate of the unemployment rate from 1929 through 1947.

And here is a repeat of the "scariest chart ever".

Even after the benchmark revision is added next month, the job losses for the current recession as a percent of peak employment are only about one fourth of the losses in the Great Depression.

¹Note: The total jobs lost does not include the preliminary benchmark payroll revision of minus 824,000 jobs. (This is the preliminary estimate of the final benchmark revision that will be announced on February 5, 2010).

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2010 07:56:00 PM

Talk about falling rents ... Doug in Chicago sends along this photo "a storefront in a normally bustling neighborhood retail district on North Clark St in Chicago, about a mile south of Wrigley Field". (telephone number blacked out)

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2010 04:56:00 PM

NOTE: I expect the use of short sales to increase nationwide in 2010. Since the Sacramento Association of REALTORS® is breaking out monthly resales by equity sales (conventional resales), and distressed sales (Short sales and REO sales), I'm following this series as an example to see changes in the mix in a former bubble area.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is the December data.

They started breaking out REO sales in 2008, but they have only broken out short sales since June 2009. About 66 percent of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales in December.

The second graph shows the percent of REO and short sales (and total distressed sales). The percent of REOs has been declining, but the percent of short sales has been steadily increasing, from 16.7% in June to 24.7% in December.

When the trial modification period ends, the REO sales will probably increase. Also, I expect short sales to be higher in 2010 than in 2009 (there is more emphasis on short sales and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure now).

Total sales in December were off 14.3% compared to December 2008; the seventh month in a row with declining YoY sales.

On financing, over half the sales were either all cash (24.6%) or FHA loans (27.5%), suggesting most of the activity in distressed former bubble areas like Sacramento is first time home buyers using government-insured FHA loans, and investors paying cash.