by Calculated Risk on 1/08/2010 12:22:00 AM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the office vacancy rate starting 1991.

Reis is reporting the vacancy rate rose to 17.0% in Q4, from 16.6% in Q3 and from 14.5% in Q4 2008. The peak following the previous recession was 16.9%.

From Reuters: At 17 pct, US office vacancy rate hits 15-year high

During the fourth quarter the national office vacancy rate climbed 0.40 percentage point from the third quarter to 17 percent, the highest level since 1994.
...
During the fourth quarter, asking rent fell 1.1 percent ... effective rent, dropped 1.9 percent ... For the year, effective rent fell 8.9 percent, the largest one-year decline since Reis began tracking it in 1980.

"Never before have landlords been under so much pressure to offer concessions to attract and retain tenants," Calanog said. "Asking rents have fallen at a lower rate, but this just implies further room to fall down the road if conditions do not improve soon."

The vacancy rate isn't a record, but there was a record decline in effective rents. Add that to the records announced earlier this week ...

Reis: Strip Mall Vacancy Rate Hits 10.6%, Highest on Record

Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest on Record, Rents Plunge

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2010 08:27:00 PM

From Liz Rappaport and Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Fed Plan to Stop Buying Mortgages Feeds Recovery Worries

The Federal Reserve's pledge to stop buying mortgages by the end of March is sparking fears among home builders, mortgage investors and even some Fed officials that mortgage rates could rise and knock the fragile housing recovery off course.

The authors review the concerns described in the minutes of the December FOMC meeting. From the FOMC minutes:

... some participants still viewed the improved outlook as quite tentative and again pointed to potential sources of softness, including the termination next year of the temporary tax credits for homebuyers and the downward pressure that further increases in foreclosures could put on house prices. Moreover, mortgage markets could come under pressure as the Federal Reserve's agency MBS purchases wind down.

Others are even more worried, from the WSJ:

... Ronald Temple, portfolio manager at Lazard Asset Management ... sees mortgage rates rising by a percentage point when the Fed stops buying. A withdrawal of government support, combined with high unemployment and rising mortgage foreclosures, could push home prices down 20%, he said.

... home builders and others are hoping the Fed will flinch. ... If the Fed stops buying, "it would be the beginning of a crisis again, and we haven't emerged from the last one," said Larry Sorsby, chief financial officer at home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc, ... Mr. Sorsby figures the Fed's withdrawal would prompt at least a one-percentage-point rise in mortgage rates, which he fears could squash recent glimmers of more demand for homes. He expects the Fed will, in fact, keep buying. "I doubt they'll just pull out," he said.

First, it is very unlikely that mortgage rates would rise by 100bps. My estimate is around 35 bps.

Although the Fed has made it clear - repeatedly - that they would either continue the program or restart it if they felt it was necessary, I think it is likely that the Fed will stop buying MBS by the end of March - and then react to whatever happens ...

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2010 04:05:00 PM

From the FDIC: FDIC Issues Interest Rate Risk Advisory

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), in coordination with the other member agencies of the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), released an advisory today reminding institutions of supervisory expectations for sound practices to manage interest rate risk (IRR).
...
The member agencies of the FFIEC include the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the National Credit Union Administration, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision, and the FFIEC State Liaison Committee. The FDIC currently chairs the FFIEC.

Here is the advisory: FFIEC Advisory on Interest Rate Risk Management

The financial regulators1 are issuing this advisory to remind institutions of supervisory expectations regarding sound practices for managing interest rate risk (IRR). In the current environment of historically low short-term interest rates, it is important for institutions to have robust processes for measuring and, where necessary, mitigating their exposure to potential increases in interest rates.

Current financial market and economic conditions present significant risk management challenges to institutions of all sizes. For a number of institutions, increased loan losses and sharp declines in the values of some securities portfolios are placing downward pressure on capital and earnings. In this challenging environment, funding longer-term assets with shorter-term liabilities can generate earnings, but also poses risks to an institution’s capital and earnings.

The regulators recognize that some degree of IRR is inherent in the business of banking. At the same time, however, institutions are expected to have sound risk management practices in place to measure, monitor, and control IRR exposures.
emphasis added

The agencies recommended the following stress testing ...

When conducting scenario analyses, institutions should assess a range of alternative future interest rate scenarios in evaluating IRR exposure. ... In many cases, static interest rate shocks consisting of parallel shifts in the yield curve of plus and minus 200 basis points may not be sufficient to adequately assess an institution’s IRR exposure. As a result, institutions should regularly assess IRR exposures beyond typical industry conventions, including changes in rates of greater magnitude (e.g., up and down 300 and 400 basis points) across different tenors to reflect changing slopes and twists of the yield curve.

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2010 02:33:00 PM

From Roger Lowenstein in the NY Times Magazine: Walk Away From Your Mortgage!. Although Lowenstein doesn't cover new ground, he does provide a nice summary.

No one says defaulting on a contract is pretty or that, in a perfectly functioning society, defaults would be the rule. But to put the onus for restraint on ordinary homeowners seems rather strange. If the Mortgage Bankers Association is against defaults, its members, presumably the experts in such matters, might take better care not to lend people more than their homes are worth.

Strategic defaults (or "ruthless defaults" as they are known in the mortgage industry) are not new. But they used to be pretty rare - and it has always been hard to quantify.

by Calculated Risk on 1/07/2010 12:17:00 PM

A little year end good news for the hotel industry ...

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel weekly results end year on positive note

The industry’s occupancy increased 5.9 percent to end the week at 45.5 percent. Average daily rate dropped 4.0 percent to finish the week at US$99.79. RevPAR for the week rose 1.6 percent to finish at US$45.37.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the weekly occupancy rate starting in 2000 and the 52 week moving average (at a record low since the Great Depression).

This graph shows the clear seasonal pattern for hotel occupancy with a peak in the Summer months due to leisure travel, and a trough at the end of the year.

Next week I'll post the usual graph comparing the current year to each of the previous three years.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com (Note: They have a free daily email too for hotel news)

The end of the year can be a little confusing because of the holidays, and mid-to-late January will be the next key weeks to see if business travel is picking up in 2010.

There is also bad news: HotelNewsNow provides the latest Atlas California Distressed Hotels Survey. Excerpt:

Since the beginning of 2009:
• The number of hotels that were foreclosed on rose 313%, from 15 to 62.
• The number of hotels in default increased 479%, from 53 to 307.
• California has 4,468 rooms that have been foreclosed on, up 792%