by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 02:36:00 PM

This is no surprise - existing home sales will be through the roof nationwide in November as buyers rushed to beat the initial deadline for the homebuyer tax credit. Also ignore the median price - it is skewed by the mix of properties sold.

A few key points:

A large portion of market activity is from first time homebuyers using FHA loans and investors. This is not a healthy market.

The percentage of foreclosure resales has decline to 39.1 percent - still very high historically.

The number of NODs (Notice of Default) has "flattened out or trended lower in many areas". This could be a positive, although I think the foreclosure activity is moving up the price chain - and these NODs are for more expensive properties.

From DataQuick: Southland home sales and prices up

A total of 19,181 new and resale homes sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was down 13.3 percent from October’s 22,132, and up 14.7 percent from 16,720 for November 2008, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego.

Sales almost always decline from October to November. The year-over-year increase was the 17th in a row. In DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988, the average November had 22,312 sales. ...

Sales have been stoked in recent months by several factors: A federal tax credit for first-time buyers, which had been set to expire last month before it was extended and expanded; robust investor activity, especially inland; super-low mortgage rates; the availability of government-insured, low-down-payment mortgages for first-time buyers; and the allure of a potential “deal” on a distressed property.

“This market is still really lopsided. Foreclosures and short sales are huge factors. There’s still not a lot of discretionary buying and selling outside the more affordable markets....” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
...
Foreclosure resales – houses and condos sold in November that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – made up 39.1 percent of all Southland resales. That was the lowest since May 2008 when it was also 39.1 percent. It hit a high of 56.7 percent last February.

... Last month 38.1 percent of all purchase loans were FHA-insured mortgages, the same as in October and up from 34.5 percent a year ago. Two years ago FHA accounted for just 2.5 percent of purchase loans.

Absentee buyers purchased 19.1 percent of all homes sold last month ...

Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards, although mortgage default notices have flattened out or trended lower in many areas.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 01:00:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the builder confidence index from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

The housing market index (HMI) was at 16 in December. This is a decline from 17 in November. The record low was 8 set in January.

This is very low - and this is what I've expected - a long period of builder depression.

Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

This second graph compares the NAHB HMI (left scale) with single family housing starts (right scale). This includes the December release for the HMI and the October data for starts (November starts will be released Wednesday Dec 16th).

This shows that the HMI and single family starts mostly move in the same direction - although there is plenty of noise month-to-month.

To be blunt: Those expecting a sharp rebound in starts from the bottom are wrong. And remember - residential investment is usually the best leading indicator for the economy.

Press release from the NAHB: Builder Confidence Edges Down in December

The December HMI fell one point to 16, its lowest point since June of this year. Two out of three component indexes also were down, with a one-point decline to 16 registered for current sales conditions and a two-point decline to 26 registered for sales expectations in the next six months. The component gauging traffic of prospective buyers remained unchanged for a third consecutive month, at 13.

Regionally, December’s HMI results were somewhat mixed. The Northeast posted a three point gain to 23, while the West posted a one-point gain to 19, the South registered no change at 17, and the Midwest posted a two-point decline, to 12.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 11:28:00 AM

From Reuters: Capital One, Discover credit-card charge-offs rise (ht shill)

Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N) and Discover Financial Services (DFS.N) reported that credit-card charge-offs rose in November -- a sign that consumers remain under stress.

In a regulatory filing on Tuesday, Capital One said the annualized net charge-off rate -- debts the company believes it will never collect -- for U.S. credit cards rose to 9.60 percent in November from 9.04 percent in October.

In another regulatory filing, Discover said its charge-off rate rose to 8.98 percent from 8.54 percent after two months of declines.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the COF annualized credit card charge-off rate since January 2005.

Notice the spike in 2005 associated with a surge in bankruptcy filings ahead of the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA).

Capital One credit card charge-offs hit 9.83% in July (annualized) - above the peak in 2005 - and were near the peak again in November. It is likely that charge-offs will be above 10% soon.

Update: US Credit Card Charge-Offs Rise in November

JPMorgan Chase ... said charge-offs -- loans the company does not expect to be repaid -- rose to 8.81 percent in November from 8.02 percent in October.
...
Bank of America... said its charge-off rate fell for third straight month -- to 13.00 percent in November from 13.22 percent in October. However, it is still the credit card issuer with the highest default and delinquency rates.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in November after having been unchanged in October. Manufacturing production advanced 1.1 percent, with broad-based gains among both durables and nondurables. ... At 99.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 5.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.7 percentage point to 71.3 percent, a rate 9.6 percentage points below its average for the period from 1972 through 2008.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967), and still well below the level of last year.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 08:34:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index fell 21 points, to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted somewhat more moderate declines but also moved close to zero. Input prices picked up a bit, as the prices paid index rebounded to roughly its November level; however, the prices received index moved further into negative territory, suggesting that price increases are not being passed along. Current employment indexes slipped back into negative territory.

Here is the general business conditions index. Note that the data only goes back to July 2001 (chart to Jan 2002). Any reading above zero is expansion, so this index shows manufacturing was expanding since August. (chart from NY Fed)