by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 09:15:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production increased 0.8 percent in November after having been unchanged in October. Manufacturing production advanced 1.1 percent, with broad-based gains among both durables and nondurables. ... At 99.4 percent of its 2002 average, total industrial production was 5.1 percent below its level of a year earlier. Capacity utilization for total industry moved up 0.7 percentage point to 71.3 percent, a rate 9.6 percentage points below its average for the period from 1972 through 2008.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in June (the series starts in 1967), and still well below the level of last year.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

by Calculated Risk on 12/15/2009 08:34:00 AM

From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers leveled off in December, following four months of improvement. The general business conditions index fell 21 points, to 2.6. The indexes for new orders and shipments posted somewhat more moderate declines but also moved close to zero. Input prices picked up a bit, as the prices paid index rebounded to roughly its November level; however, the prices received index moved further into negative territory, suggesting that price increases are not being passed along. Current employment indexes slipped back into negative territory.

Here is the general business conditions index. Note that the data only goes back to July 2001 (chart to Jan 2002). Any reading above zero is expansion, so this index shows manufacturing was expanding since August. (chart from NY Fed)

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2009 09:56:00 PM

There seems to be a sense that the banks are rushing to repay the TARP funds so they can pay bonuses. I think it is more likely that are just taking advantage of the opportunity to raise capital.

From Eric Dash and Andrew Martin at the NY Times: Wells Fargo to Repay U.S., a Coda to the Bailout Era

Wells joins Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase, its largest rivals, in shedding the stigma of taxpayer support and the restrictions on compensation that came with it.
...
[David H. Ellison, a portfolio manager at FBR Funds] said banks appeared to be “rushing in” to pay back the government, so they can offer bigger bonuses to their executives and get lawmakers off their backs.

But the prospect of huge losses on mortgages and commercial real estate loans early next year might also be causing the repayment stampede, he said.

“It may be as much about raising capital as it is paying off TARP,” he said.

Exactly.

What has made this doable now is the massive support for asset prices by the Government (and taxpayers). This includes the Fed's MBS purchase program, the loose lending by the FHA, the FTHB tax credit, the HAMP, and more. These programs have limited the losses at the financial firms. Maybe this will work - as I noted last year, house prices in low end bubble areas might have bottomed - although prices are clearly still too high in many mid-to-high end bubble areas and eventually will decline (at least in real terms) to more supportable levels. And that probably means more losses for the banks.

Also in the article, Dash and Martin write that some financial experts think "If the economy takes a turn for the worse ... these same large banks will return to the government for a new round of aid." I don't think so.

I doubt there will be a TARP II. If any of these banks get in trouble again, they will probably be dissolved, management fired, and the shareholders wiped out. Isn't that implicit in paying back the TARP? Isn't that a key component of financial reform?

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2009 06:19:00 PM

From the WSJ: Wells Fargo to repay entire $25 billion in bailout aid, use proceeds from $10.4 billion stock sale.

The last of the big banks ...

Press Release from Wells Fargo: Wells Fargo to Repay Entire $25 Billion TARP Investment; Announces $10.4 Billion Common Stock Offering

Wells Fargo & Company announced today that, pursuant to terms approved by U.S. banking regulators and the U.S. Treasury, it will redeem the $25 billion of series D preferred stock issued to the U.S. Treasury in October 2008 under the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), upon successful completion of a $10.4 billion common stock offering.

“TARP stabilized our country’s financial system when confidence in financial markets around the world was being tested unlike any other period in our history. Its success also generated financial returns for taxpayers, including $1.4 billion in dividends paid to the U.S. Treasury by Wells Fargo,” said Wells Fargo President and CEO John Stumpf. “Now we’re ready to fully repay TARP in a way that serves the interests of the U.S. taxpayer, as well as our customers, team members and investors.”

by Calculated Risk on 12/14/2009 02:23:00 PM

Just an update on the status of the Fed's MBS purchase program.

From the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights:

From the Atlanta Fed:

The Fed purchased a net total of $16 billion of agency-backed MBS in each of the last three weeks, with the last one through December 2. This purchase brings its total purchases up to $1.058 trillion, and by the end of the first quarter 2010 the Fed will have purchased $1.25 trillion (thus, it is 85% complete).

In the last two months, the average weekly amount of MBS purchased has been smaller, averaging $17 billion over the last 10 weeks versus the average of $23.4 billion before that period.

The Fed purchased an additional $16 billion net in MBS over the last week.

And on the Fed balance sheet:

The balance sheet shrank slightly between November 26 and December 2 to $2.24 trillion.

Note that the Fed balance sheet is mostly Agency & MBS and Tresuries now.