by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2009 01:47:00 PM

In a research note titled: "The Fed Will Exit in 2010", Morgan Stanley's Richard Berner and David Greenlaw forecast that the Fed will raise the Fed Funds rate in the 2nd half of 2010 to 1.5%.

They are forecasting GDP to increase 2.8% in both 2010 and 2011, and for unemployment to peak in Q1 2010 at 10.3%, and decline to 9.5% in 2011.

The GDP and unemployment rate forecasts are consistent with each other (see my post: Employment and Real GDP), but the real question is why do they expect the Fed to raise rates in the 2nd half of 2010 with a sluggish recovery?

The reason is they expect inflation expectations to pickup, and the Fed to react by raising rates (to 1.5% by the end of 2010, and 2.0% by the end of 2011). That would be unusually since the Fed historically waits until sometime well after the unemployment rate peaks.

The following graph is from I post I wrote in September: Fed Funds and Unemployment Rate

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the effective Fed Funds rate (Source: Federal Reserve) and the unemployment rate (source: BLS)

In the early '90s, the Fed waited more than a 1 1/2 years after the unemployment rate peaked before raising rates. The unemployment rate had fallen from 7.8% to 6.6% before the Fed raised rates.

Following the peak unemployment rate in 2003 of 6.3%, the Fed waited a year to raise rates. The unemployment rate had fallen to 5.6% in June 2004 before the Fed raised rates.

Here is more from Paul Krugman: When should the Fed raise rates? (even more wonkish)

Goldman Sachs recently forecast that the Fed will be on hold through 2011:

The key features of our 2011 outlook: (1) a strengthening in growth from 2.1% on average in 2010 to 2.4% in 2011, with real GDP rising at an above-potential 3½% pace in late 2011; (2) a peaking in unemployment in mid-2011 at about 10¾%; (3) extremely low inflation – close to zero on a core basis during 2011; and (4) a continuation of the Fed’s (near) zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2011.

Although there are other considerations - such as inflation expectations, I don't expect the Fed to raise rates until late in 2010 at the earliest - and more likely sometime in 2011 or even later.

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2009 10:53:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Most Targeted for Mortgage Relief Don’t Qualify, Official Says

A majority of the 3.2 million borrowers targeted by the U.S. Treasury Department for mortgage relief under the administration’s foreclosure prevention program are unlikely to qualify, an agency official said.
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Although we know that not every borrower will qualify for a permanent modification, we are disappointed in the permanent modification results so far,” said Allison, who is the former chief executive officer for federally controlled mortgage- finance giant Fannie Mae.

Testimony from Treasury Assistant Secretary for Financial Stability Herbert Allison: “The Private Sector and Government Response to the Mortgage Foreclosure Crisis”

The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), which provides eligible homeowners the opportunity to significantly reduce their monthly mortgage payment, is a key part of this effort, designed to help millions of homeowners remain in their homes and prevent avoidable foreclosures. As of November 17, over 680,000 borrowers are in active modifications, saving an average of over $550 a month on their monthly mortgage payments. Servicers report that over 900,000 borrowers have received offers to begin trial modifications.
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Our most immediate and critical challenge is converting trial modifications to permanent modifications. All mortgage modifications begin with a trial phase to allow borrowers to submit the necessary documentation and determine whether the modified monthly payment is sustainable for them.
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Currently servicers report that about 375,000 trial modifications will have finished a three month trial period with timely payments before 12/31/2009. Informal survey data from servicers indicate receipt of complete documents in about 30% of active trial modifications – these modifications where borrowers have returned all required documents need to be decisioned by servicers as quickly as possible. For other borrowers, servicers report that the large majority are current on their payments, but have some of the required documentation missing from applications. Housing counselors and homeowners report that servicers are losing documents, while servicers report that homeowners are not providing documents despite repeated outreach. Thousands of borrowers have successfully converted trial modifications to permanent modifications – but this is a low number compared to the total number of trial modifications.

Only "thousands" of borrowers? Ouch. The actual data should be released this week.

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2009 09:48:00 AM

From CNBC: Government 'Out of Bullets,' Consumers in Trouble: Whitney

Primary among her concerns is the lack of credit access for consumers who she said are "getting kicked out of the financial system." She said that will be the prevailing trend in 2010.
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"You're going to get a situation where you revert from a consumer standpoint," she added, "where those that had bank accounts for the first time, credit cards for the first time, homes for the first time get kicked out of the system and then fall prey to real predatory lenders."
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"I have 100 percent conviction that the consumer is not getting any better and there's not more liquidity," Whitney said. ... "For a 2010 prediction, which is so disturbing on so many levels to have so many Americans be kicked out of the financial system and the consequences both political and economic of that, it's a real issue. You can't get around it. This has never happened before in this country."

Ms. Whitney makes me look like an optimist!

by Calculated Risk on 12/08/2009 08:39:00 AM

From Jeff Zeleny at the NY Times: Obama Announces New Jobs Programs

President Obama on Tuesday will announce three proposals intended to turn around the nation’s beleaguered job market ...

The speech, according to a senior administration official, will outline a series of steps to help small businesses grow and hire new staff. The president also will call for increasing the investment in infrastructure through building and modernizing highways, railways, bridges and tunnels. He also will propose a new program that provides rebates for consumers who retrofit their homes to become more energy efficient.
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The president also will call for using some of the $200 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program to help pay down the $1.4 trillion budget deficit.

So there are three parts: 1) apparentaly a tax credit for businesses to hire new employees, 2) more infrastructure investment, 3) and a cash-for-caulkers program.

by Calculated Risk on 12/07/2009 09:26:00 PM

From Thomas Corfman at Crain's Chicago Business: Zombie fears stalk Tishman in the Loop (ht David)

Corfman describes properties where the owners owe far more than the buildings are worth, and can't refinance, as "zombie buildings". The owners "can't compete for new tenants because they lack the money to cover brokers' commissions and interior office reconstruction."

"Virtually all the assets bought between '05 and '07 cannot be refinanced today without a significant capital infusion," says Shawn Mobley, executive vice-president at real estate firm Grubb & Ellis Co. "These buildings need to be recapitalized to get back in the business of being active real estate."
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The number of zombie buildings in the Chicago area is likely to grow in 2010 ... For landlords, the trend means even top-quality office properties are likely to divide themselves into "haves" and "have-nots," with the latter seeing their vacancy rates worsen because of the lack of financing.
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Many tenants won't consider zombie buildings because they need landlords' cash [for tenant improvements].

An "extend and pretend" loan modification will just let the zombie building live longer with deferred maintenance and few tenant improvements.

Although Corfman is discussing commercial office buildings, the same idea applies to residential real estate and loan modifications. Homeowners with significant negative equity own zombie houses - the "owners" are really renters and will defer maintenance as long as possible.