by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2009 12:02:00 PM

From MarketWatch: Ford U.S. Nov. sales flat at 123,167 units

Update: CNBC is reporting Ford Motor November US Sales Rise 8.6% on an Adjusted Basis

UPDATE2:

MarketWatch: Chrysler Nov. sales down 25%

MarketWatch: Toyota U.S. Nov. sales rise 2.6%

GM U.S. November sales decline 2.2%

This is a comparison to Nov 2008.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows total U.S. light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA since Jan 2006.

Sales declined sharply in Oct 2008, and fell further in November. On a year-over-year basis light vehicle sales declined slightly in October (Blue labels and arrow), but the comparison is easier for November (red data label for November 2008).

So the Ford numbers seem disappointing.

Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total November sales (SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate) - usually around 4 PM ET.

by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2009 10:30:00 AM

PMI at 53.6 in November, down from 55.7% in October.

From the Institute for Supply Management: November 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November for the fourth consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the seventh consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the fourth consecutive month in November. While the rate of growth slowed when compared to October, the signs are still encouraging for continuing growth as both new orders and production are still at very positive levels, and the Prices Index fell 10 points, signaling less inflationary pressure on manufacturers' costs. Overall, the recovery in manufacturing is continuing, but many are still struggling based on their comments."
...
Manufacturing growth decelerated in November as the PMI registered 53.6 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points when compared to October's reading of 55.7 percent. This continues the recovery in the sector, but at a slower rate of growth. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
...
ISM's Employment Index registered 50.8 percent in November, which is 2.3 percentage points lower than the 53.1 percent reported in October. This is the second month of growth in manufacturing employment following 14 consecutive months of decline. An Employment Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.
emphasis added

As noted, any reading above 50 shows expansion.

by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2009 10:00:00 AM

We started the year looking for two key construction spending stories: a likely bottom for residential construction spending, and the collapse in private non-residential construction.

It appears residential construction spending may have bottomed, although any growth in spending will probably be sluggish until the large overhang of existing inventory is reduced.

And the collapse in non-residential construction spending continues, and there will be further declines as projects are completed.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending increased in October, and nonresidential spending continued to decline.

Private residential construction spending is now 63% below the peak of early 2006.

Private non-residential construction spending is 20.6% below the peak of last October.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and nonresidential construction spending.

Nonresidential spending is off 20.6% on a year-over-year basis.

Residential construction spending is still off 23.6% from a year ago, although the negative YoY change will get smaller going forward.

Here is the report from the Census Bureau: October 2009 Construction at $910.8 Billion Annual Rate

by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2009 08:39:00 AM

UPDATE: Here is the document (pdf): Introduction of Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives – Short Sale and Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure

From Reuters: Treasury sets guidance to simplify "short sales" (ht Anthony)

Here are the basics of the Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives Program financial incentives for completing short sales or a deed-in-lieu transaction:

Borrowers would receive $1,500 from the government in relocation expenses.

Servicers receive $1,000 from the government.

Second liens holders can receive up to $3,000 of the sales proceeds for releasing their liens.

First lien investors can receive $1,000 from the government for signing off on payments to subordinate lien holders.

Borrowers must be fully released from any further liability.

by Calculated Risk on 12/01/2009 12:07:00 AM

Ok, one more post on Dubai before all the U.S. economic news this week ...

A couple of articles from the NY Times: Dubai Crisis Tests Laws of Islamic Financing

Shariah-compliant investments prohibit lenders from earning interest, and effectively place lenders and borrowers into a form of partnership. Yet there are no consistent rules about who gets repaid first if a company defaults on such debt, said Zaher Barakat, a professor of Islamic finance at Cass Business School in London.

And Andrew Ross Sorkin describes a recent trip to Dubai: A Financial Mirage in the Desert

One discussion was led by a British banker from Barclays who had moved to the region to create an entire Shariah-compliance team. He shared tips about various ways to create “structured products” that would pass muster with Muslim investors. (To me, the investments looked like bonds, walked like bonds and talked like bonds — but he never called them that.) Some of the bonds that Dubai World is in jeopardy of defaulting on, by the way, are Shariah-compliant sukuk. Just don’t call them bonds.

Oh great, more "structured products".