by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2009 06:08:00 PM

Suited Bureaucrats
Waiting for critical mass
Century flames out

What is that white light?
Orion Supernovas
Hot money burns bright
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida

Century Bank, Federal Savings Bank, Sarasota, Florida, was closed today by the Office of Thrift Supervision, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 31, 2009, Century Bank, FSB had total assets of $728 million and total deposits of approximately $631 million. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $344 million. ... Century Bank, FSB is the 121st FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the tenth in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Flagship National Bank, Bradenton, on November 6, 2009.

From the FDIC: IBERIABANK, Lafayette, Louisiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Orion Bank, Naples, Florida

Orion Bank, Naples, Florida, was closed today by the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, which appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) as receiver. ...

As of October 31, 2009, Orion Bank had total assets of $2.7 billion and total deposits of approximately $2.1 billion. ...

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $615 million. ... Orion Bank is the 122nd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the eleventh in Florida. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was Century Bank, Sarasota, FL, earlier today.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2009 05:07:00 PM

From the WSJ: State Finance Directors Warn of More Trouble Ahead

"I looked as hard as I could at how states could declare bankruptcy," said Michael Genest, director of the California Department of Finance who is stepping down at the end of the year. "I literally looked at the federal constitution to see if there was a way for states to return to territory status."

And on banks:

From the Chicago Tribune: Amcore says regulators reject plan to raise capital (ht Doug)

Last month, Amcore ... disclosed it was "undercapitalized or significantly undercapitalized under some regulatory capital standards."

On Nov. 6, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago also notified Amcore that it found its capital plan unacceptable.

Amcore said it's continuing to work with its financial and professional advisors in seeking outside capital, and in complying with the regulators' orders, but "there can be no assurance that these actions will be successful."

It also conceded that it could get seized by regulators.

"Failure to submit an acceptable capital restoration plan or disposition plan or to restore capital levels may result in additional enforcement actions by the regulators, including the appointment of a receiver," it said.

Amcore has $4.9 billion in assets.

And there is plenty of noise down in Florida tonight, from the Florida Business Journal BankUnited CEO: Big deal is coming

BankUnited CEO John Kanas told members of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce during a luncheon Tuesday that they should expect a big deal by his bank in the next week.

And also: Texas billionaire Beal seeks failed Florida bank (ht Stephen)

Federal regulators have granted Texas billionaire and financial executive Andrew Beal approval to form a bank that could acquire a failed or failing Florida bank.
...
All of these players have plenty of problem banks from which to choose. On June 30, there were 15 undercapitalized banks in Florida, including Fort Pierce-based Riverside National Bank, Naples-based Orion Bank, Panama City-based Peoples First Community Bank, Immokalee-based Florida Community Bank and Sarasota-based Century Bank.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2009 03:32:00 PM

A couple of banks in trouble ...

From Reuters: US credit card issuer Advanta files for bankruptcy (ht jb)

The company also said its Advanta Bank's capital is below regulatory requirements and that the bank could turned over to a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp receivership.

Advanta said it decided not to fund the bank's capital shortfall to preserve value for other stakeholders.
emphasis added

Advanta bank has just under $3 billion in assets.

And from SignonSanDiego: Imperial Capital hits deadline to raise capital

The regulator-imposed deadline has passed for La Jolla's Imperial Capital Bank to raise additional capital, putting into question the future of the long-struggling institution.
...
Federal regulators first placed Imperial Capital under a cease-and-desist order in February. As part of that, the bank was required to submit a plan to raise additional capital.

The bank submitted its plan in August, but regulators rejected it and set yesterday as a deadline for the bank to sell stock to raise money or find a buyer.

Inperial has about $4.2 billion in assets, and has also received a Prompt Corrective Action from the FDIC:

On October 15, 2009, Imperial Capital Bank (the "Bank"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Imperial Capital Bancorp, Inc. (the "Company"), received a Supervisory Prompt Corrective Action Directive (the "Directive") from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (the "FDIC").

A Prompt Corrective Action Directive is basically a "Hail Mary pass" and frequently means failure is imminent (though not always).

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2009 12:54:00 PM

This is an update to an earlier post. As I've noted for some time, housing leads the economy and is the best leading indicator for the economy - both into and out of recessions.

Update: Employment tends to be a coincident indicator into recessions, and used to be coincident coming out of recessions. Employment has lagged the economy after the previous two recessions (and appears to be lagging again).

Employment lags housing, and the following graph shows the relationship between starts and unemployment.

The graph is based on a talk by Jon Fisher, a professor at the University of San Francisco School of Business.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows housing starts (both total and single unit) and unemployment (inverted).

You can see both the correlation and the lag. The lag is usually about 12 to 18 months, with peak correlation at a lag of 16 months for single unit starts. The 2001 recession was a business investment led recession, and the pattern didn't hold.

This suggests unemployment might peak in Spring 2010.

Professor Fisher argued that unemployment will rise to about 10.4% and then fall rapidly. He is now projecting unemployment will decline to 8% by the end of 2010.

He is basing the rapid decline in unemployment on a "V shaped" housing recovery similar to previous recessions. I disagree with that point.

In most earlier recessions, the slumps were caused by the Fed raising interest rates to fight inflation. When the Fed cut rates, housing bounced back sharply (V shaped).

Although this recession was led by a housing bust - and that makes it look similar to some previous periods - this recession was not engineered by the Fed raising rates, rather it was the busting of the credit and housing bubbles, and all the related problems that led the economy into recession. Since there is still far too much existing home inventory, a sharp bounce back in housing starts is unlikely, so I think Fisher's forecast for a rapid decline in unemployment is also unlikely.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2009 11:19:00 AM

From the NY Times: Euro Zone Officially Out of Recession

... [T]he euro area emerged from recession during the third quarter, helped largely by export growth and improved industrial production in its largest economy, Germany.

The European Union’s statistics agency, Eurostat, reported Friday that gross domestic product for the 16 countries using the single currency expanded by 0.4 percent from the second quarter, following five quarters of contraction. Against a year earlier, G.D.P. was still 4.1 percent lower.

Analysts said the outlook remained patchy, particularly because unemployment is still climbing, wages are stagnant and consumption and lending are being propped up by government programs that will not be renewed indefinitely.

Note: the 0.4% is the quarterly rate (1.6% annualized when comparing to reporting in the U.S.).

Here is the Eurostat report: Euro area GDP up by 0.4% and EU27 GDP up by 0.2% with a breakdown by country.