by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2009 12:44:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: Anaheim-Santa Ana leads occupancy increases in STR weekly numbers

Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 7.2 percent to end the week at 51.8 percent, average daily rate dropped 7.2 percent to US$98.99, and revenue per available decreased 13.8 percent to US$51.28.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the occupancy rate by week for each of the last four years (2006 through 2009 labeled by start of month).

Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change. Thanksgiving was late in 2008, so the dip doesn't line up with the previous years.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

The above graph shows two key points:

This is a two year slump for the hotel industry. Although occupancy is off 7.2% compared to 2008, occupancy is off about 14% compared to 2006 and 2007.

There is a distinct seasonal pattern for the occupancy rate. The occupancy rate is higher in the summer (because of leisure travel), and lower on certain holidays.

The HotelNewsNow press release also has this graph on occupancy variance compared to 2008.

For most of the year business travel (mid-week) has been off more than leisure travel (weekends).

Perhaps there has been an increase in mid-week travel, and this is something to watch.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2009 11:20:00 AM

From Fannie Mae: Fannie Mae Announces Deed for Lease™ Program

Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) is implementing the Deed for Lease™ Program under which qualifying homeowners facing foreclosure will be able to remain in their homes by signing a lease in connection with the voluntary transfer of the property deed back to the lender.
...
The new program is designed for borrowers who do not qualify for or have not been able to sustain other loan-workout solutions, such as a modification. Under Deed for Lease, borrowers transfer their property to the lender by completing a deed in lieu of foreclosure, and then lease back the house at a market rate.

To participate in the program, borrowers must live in the home as their primary residence and must be released from any subordinate liens on the property. Tenants of borrowers in this circumstance may also be eligible for leases under the program. Borrowers or tenants interested in a lease must be able to document that the new market rental rate is no more than 31% of their gross income.

Leases under the new program may be up to 12 months, with the possibility of term renewal or month-to-month extensions after that period. A Deed for Lease property that is subsequently sold includes an assignment of the lease to the buyer.

This is part of the "single family public housing" program.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2009 08:33:00 AM

The DOL reports weekly unemployment insurance claims decreased to 512,000:

In the week ending Oct. 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 512,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 532,000. The 4-week moving average was 523,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 526,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Oct. 24 was 5,749,000, a decrease of 68,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,817,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 3,000 to 523,750, and is now 135,000 below the peak in April. The significant decline from the peak strongly suggests that initial weekly claims have peaked for this cycle.

However, the level is still very high suggesting continuing job losses.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 10:06:00 PM

Repeating the errors from the S&L crisis ...

Last Friday, the Chicago Tribune reported: Regulators seize FBOP banks

The Park National shutdown occurred after several Illinois congressmen, including Reps. Bobby Rush and Danny Davis and Sen. Roland Burris, called the FDIC asking it to delay closing the bank for at least a week, said Marilyn Katz, a bank spokeswoman.
emphasis added

Tonight from the WSJ: Bank Crackdown Draws Criticism

Politicians are putting pressure on regulators to go easy on small community banks across the U.S. ...

"A self-fulfilling prophecy of community bank failures, shrinking credit availability and a slower economic recovery can all result from a regulatory overreaction to the current crisis," said the letter, which also was signed by Rep. Walt Minnick (D., Idaho).
...
Rep. Tom Price (R., Ga.) told [FDIC Chairwoman] Ms. Bair he wasn't "convinced that the FDIC isn't contributing to the awful problems that we're having" in his state, where 20 banks have failed in 2009. The banks "dot every 'i' and they cross every 't' and then the knock comes on the door on Friday afternoon," he told her.

This is backwards. By moving slowly, the FDIC is tainting all small banks and making it more difficult for them to raise capital (ht Pat). In addition, healthy banks are holding on to capital to try to buy assets from the FDIC at a discount, compared to the cost of a similar new loan.

The sooner the FDIC completes the process of closing failed banks, the better for the remaining banks and the economy.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 06:47:00 PM

From Diana Golobay at HousingWire: FHA Delays Yearly Fiscal Report over ‘Accuracy’ of Methodology

A US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) spokeswoman indicated hours before the scheduled release that the report would not be completed in time, and FHA commissioner David Stevens later issued a statement on the cause of the delay.

“FHA asked the independent actuary, IFE [Integrated Financial Engineering], to run additional economic scenario testing above and beyond what was going to be included in the actuarial study to better understand a broader range of risk scenarios,” Stevens said. “Based on these results, we raised questions about the accuracy of IFE’s modeling and IFE therefore advised us that we should not treat the report as final. IFE is now running additional tests to ensure that the final report is accurate.”

Stevens added, “We will only release a report that we are confident is accurate and fully reflects the health of the FHA.”

And from the WaPo: FHA abruptly delays audit of agency's financial health

In September, Stevens said the audit, when released, would show that the agency's cash reserves had dropped below federally mandated levels. ... But while the reserves are at a historic low, the audit predicted that they would rebound to the required level within two to three years largely as a result of the recovery in the housing market ...

On Wednesday, neither the FHA nor the auditing firm would publicly comment about whether the preliminary data are now in question.

But Barry Dennis, president and chief operating officer of the auditing firm, said his office is working as quickly as possible to produce the final report. "In an environment like we're in today, you need to look at a number of different economic scenarios and in the process of doing that, we needed to track down some potential issues," Dennis said.

The concern is that some of the "different economic scenarios" showed the FHA would require a significant taxpayer bailout.