by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 06:47:00 PM

From Diana Golobay at HousingWire: FHA Delays Yearly Fiscal Report over ‘Accuracy’ of Methodology

A US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) spokeswoman indicated hours before the scheduled release that the report would not be completed in time, and FHA commissioner David Stevens later issued a statement on the cause of the delay.

“FHA asked the independent actuary, IFE [Integrated Financial Engineering], to run additional economic scenario testing above and beyond what was going to be included in the actuarial study to better understand a broader range of risk scenarios,” Stevens said. “Based on these results, we raised questions about the accuracy of IFE’s modeling and IFE therefore advised us that we should not treat the report as final. IFE is now running additional tests to ensure that the final report is accurate.”

Stevens added, “We will only release a report that we are confident is accurate and fully reflects the health of the FHA.”

And from the WaPo: FHA abruptly delays audit of agency's financial health

In September, Stevens said the audit, when released, would show that the agency's cash reserves had dropped below federally mandated levels. ... But while the reserves are at a historic low, the audit predicted that they would rebound to the required level within two to three years largely as a result of the recovery in the housing market ...

On Wednesday, neither the FHA nor the auditing firm would publicly comment about whether the preliminary data are now in question.

But Barry Dennis, president and chief operating officer of the auditing firm, said his office is working as quickly as possible to produce the final report. "In an environment like we're in today, you need to look at a number of different economic scenarios and in the process of doing that, we needed to track down some potential issues," Dennis said.

The concern is that some of the "different economic scenarios" showed the FHA would require a significant taxpayer bailout.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 03:44:00 PM

Earlier this week there was some discussion about the increase in the ISM Manufacturing employment index.

ISM's Employment Index registered 53.1 percent in October, which is 6.9 percentage points higher than the 46.2 percent reported in September. This is the first month of growth in manufacturing employment following 14 consecutive months of decline. An Employment Index above 49.7 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data on manufacturing employment.

To check this statement, I posted a scatter graph of the relationship between the ISM Manufacturing employment index and the reported monthly change in manufacturing employment. (See: ISM and Manufacturing Employment) Sure enough, the increase in the employment index suggests an improvement in the BLS manufacturing employment numbers.

However the news today from the ISM non-manufacturing employment index was discouraging:

Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 21st time in the last 22 months. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for October registered 41.1 percent. This reflects a decrease of 3.2 percentage points when compared to the 44.3 percent registered in September.

And that calls out for another graph!

The following graph shows the ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment Index vs. the BLS reported monthly change in private service employment (as a percent of private service employment).

Note: There is a limited amount of data for the ISM non-manufacturing index (only back to July 1997).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Once again the ISM employment index is related to changes in BLS employment.

Although the relationship is noisy, the decline in the non-manufacturing employment index suggests that the October improvement in manufacturing employment will be more than offset by a decline in service employment.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 02:15:00 PM

Some people thought that the Fed might change the "extended period" statement, or the "economic activity ... to remain weak for a time". No change to those statements. Note: I doubt the Fed will raise rates for a long time.

From the Fed:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September suggests that economic activity has continued to pick up. Conditions in financial markets were roughly unchanged, on balance, over the intermeeting period. Activity in the housing sector has increased over recent months. Household spending appears to be expanding but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will continue to employ a wide range of tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 11:21:00 AM

From the American Bankruptcy Institute: October Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Reach New Highs, Up 28 Percent Over Last Year

The 135,913 consumer bankruptcy filings in October represented a 27.9 percent increase over last October's monthly total of 106,266, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI), relying on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center (NBKRC). The October 2009 consumer filings represented an 8.9 percent increase from the September 2009 total of 124,790. Chapter 13 filings constituted 28.5 percent of all consumer cases in October, a slight increase from the September rate.

"The nearly 9 percent increase in consumer bankruptcy filings in October, together with a 7 percent jump reported in business cases, demonstrates the sustained stress on the U.S. economy," said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. ABI forecasts that total bankruptcies this year will exceed 1.4 million, the highest number since 2005.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the non-business bankruptcy filings by quarter.

Note: Quarterly data from Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, Q3 2009 based on monthly data from the American Bankruptcy Institute. Q4 is three times the October rate.

The quarterly rate is at about the same level as prior to when the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005 (BAPCPA) took effect. There were over 2 million bankruptcies filed in Calendar 2005 ahead of the law change.

There have been 1.18 million personal bankruptcy filings through Oct 2009, and the American Bankruptcy Institute is predicting over 1.4 million new bankruptcy filings by year end.

by Calculated Risk on 11/04/2009 10:00:00 AM

From the Institute for Supply Management: October 2009 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector expanded in October for the second consecutive month, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

... "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.6 percent in October, 0.3 percentage point lower than the 50.9 percent registered in September, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month, but at a slightly slower rate.
...
Employment activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in October for the 21st time in the last 22 months. ISM's Non-Manufacturing Employment Index for October registered 41.1 percent. This reflects a decrease of 3.2 percentage points when compared to the 44.3 percent registered in September.
emphasis added

According to this survey, the service sector expanded in October, but at a slower rate than in September. Employment contracted at as faster rate than in September - the opposite of the manufacturing sector.