by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2009 03:38:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for September (red, light vehicle sales of 9.22 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

This is the third lowest vehicle sales this year.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Obviously sales were boosted significantly by the "Cash-for-clunkers" program in August and some in July. Although this wasn't as bad as some of the lower forecasts, it was still below most estimates.

Note: the answer to the earlier poll was 746 thousand (not seasonally adjusted sales).

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2009 02:44:00 PM

We are now in the Fall business travel season ...

From HotelNewsNow.com: Norfolk-Virginia Beach posts RevPAR growth in STR weekly numbers

Overall, in year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 7.2 percent to end the week at 59.8 percent. Average daily rate dropped 10.1 percent to finish the week at US$100.30. RevPAR for the week decreased 16.6 percent to finish at US$59.94.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the occupancy rate (3 week trailing average).

The three week average is off 10.2% from the same period in 2008.

The average daily rate is down 10.1%, and RevPAR is off 16.6% from the same week last year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

The goods news is the comparisons will become easier soon since business travel fell off a cliff last October. However occupancy rates below 60% are crushing. For comparison, occupancy rates for October in 2006 and 2007 were close to 68%.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2009 12:05:00 PM

Note: graphs will be posted around 4 PM ET.

Update: Percentage comparisons are to Sept 2008.

From MarketWatch: Ford total U.S. Sept. sales decline 5.1%

Ford Motor Co. said Thursday that U.S. auto sales for September dropped 5.1% to 114,655 vehicles from 116,734 a year ago.

UPDATES: GM U.S. Sept. sales drop 45% (compared to Sept 2008)

Chrysler sales off 42%.

Toyota U.S. Sept. sales off 12.7%

Once all the reports are released, I'll post a graph of the estimated total September sales (SAAR: seasonally adjusted annual rate). The range of estimates for September have been very wide ...

For fun, here are the results of a poll in the comments (Monthly, not SAAR):

620,000 end of the world 6% (3 votes)
650,000 black hole 40% (20 votes)
700,000 detectable pulse 42% (21 votes)
740,000 trend sans C4C 6% (3 votes)
800,000 post Viagra pause 2% (1 vote)
960,000 all clear same as Sept 2008 2% (1 vote)
1,000,000 (puts pinky to corner of mouth) 2% (1 vote)
Total votes: 50

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2009 10:26:00 AM

We started the year looking for two key construction spending stories: a likely bottom for residential construction spending, and the collapse in private non-residential construction. This report shows further evidence of both stories.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential construction spending increased in August, and nonresidential spending continued to decline.

Private residential construction spending is now 63.1% below the peak of early 2006. Although it appears residential construction spending may have bottomed, any growth in spending will probably be sluggish until the large overhang of existing inventory is reduced.

Private non-residential construction spending is still only 12.6% below the peak of last September.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change for private residential and nonresidential construction spending.

Nonresidential spending is off 10.5% on a year-over-year basis, and will turn strongly negative as projects are completed. Residential construction spending is still declining YoY, although the negative YoY change will get smaller going forward.

From the Census Bureau: August 2009 Construction at $941.9 Billion Annual Rate

The U.S. Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that construction spending during August 2009 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $941.9 billion, 0.8 percent (±1.8%) above the revised July estimate of $934.6 billion. The August figure is 11.6 percent (±1.8%) below the August 2008 estimate of $1,066.1 billion.

by Calculated Risk on 10/01/2009 10:00:00 AM

PMI at 52.6% in September down from 52.9% in August.

From the Institute for Supply Management: September 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September for the second consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the fifth consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The manufacturing sector grew for the second consecutive month in September. While the rate of growth moderated slightly when compared to August, the recovery broadened as the number of industries reporting growth increased from 11 to 13. Both new orders and production are growing, but at a slower rate when compared to August. It appears the fundamentals for continuing recovery are still at work as inventories and sales are gaining balance."
...
ISM's New Orders Index registered 60.8 percent in September, 4.1 percentage points lower than the 64.9 percent registered in August. This is the third consecutive month of growth in the New Orders Index. A New Orders Index above 48.8 percent, over time, is generally consistent with an increase in the Census Bureau's series on manufacturing orders (in constant 2000 dollars).
emphasis added

As noted, any reading above 50 shows expansion.

Also, from the NAR: Record Streak Continues for Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.