by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2009 12:10:00 PM

From Ryan Grim at the HuffPost: Cramdown Is Back: Banks Against Homeowners, Round 2 (ht Atrios)

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) tells the Huffington Post he plans to revive the effort to give bankruptcy judges the authority to renegotiate home mortgages -- by making it part of this fall's much-anticipated financial regulatory reform bill.
...
On Tuesday, Frank was asked by HuffPost if he had plans to readdress cramdown. "Yes, as I will announce tomorrow, and I told this to bankers, given the slow pace of modifications, for whatever reason: they're not putting enough people on it, they're not taking it seriously, there are legal obstacles. As of now my intention would be to include the bankruptcy on primary residences in the reg reform."

For a history of mortgage Cram Downs, and why they are needed, see Tanta's Just Say Yes To Cram Downs . Some excerpts:

The prohibition of court-ordered modifications for mortgages on principal residences was created in 1978; between 1978 and 1993 most bankruptcy courts interpreted the law to mean that while interest-rate reduction or term-extension modifications were not allowed, home mortgages could still be crammed down.

In 1993, with Nobleman v. American Savings Bank, the Supreme Court held that the prohibition on modifications of principal-residence mortgage loans also included cram downs. The result is that borrowers who are upside down and who have toxic, high-rate mortgages are simply, in practical terms, unable to maintain their homes in Chapter 13.
...
I am fully in favor of removing restrictions on modifications of mortgage loans in Chapter 13, but not necessarily because that helps current borrowers out of a jam. I'm in favor of it because I think it will be part of a range of regulatory and legal changes that will help prevent future borrowers from getting into a lot of jams, which is to say that it will, contra MBA, actually help "stabilize" the residential mortgage market in the long term. Any industry that wants special treatment under the law because of the socially vital nature of its services needs to offer socially viable services, and since the industry has displayed no ability or willingness to quit partying on its own, then treat it like any other partier under BK law.

There is much more in Tanta's post.

Cram downs are in important step: as Ryan Grim notes in the HuffPost article, the mortgage modification programs are all "carrot" and the cram downs will provide a "stick", and more importantly, as Tanta noted, the cram downs will bring discipline to the mortgage industry.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2009 10:58:00 AM

From Teasury: Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions Michael S. Barr Written Testimony on Stabilizing the Housing Market before the House Financial Services Committee, Subcommittee on Housing and Community Opportunity

... I want to highlight some key points of success:

We have signed contracts with over 45 servicers, including the five largest. Between loans covered by these servicers and loans owned or guaranteed by the GSEs, more than 85 percent of all mortgage loans in the country are now covered by the program.

Over 570,000 trial modifications have been offered under the program. Over 360,000 trial modifications are underway.
...
[W]e recognize that any modification program seeking to avoid preventable foreclosures has limits, HAMP included. Even before the current crisis, when home prices were climbing, there were still many hundreds of thousands of foreclosures. Therefore, even if HAMP is a total success, we should still expect millions of foreclosures, as President Obama noted when he launched the program in February.

Some of these foreclosures will result from borrowers who, as investors, do not qualify for the program. Others will occur because borrowers do not respond to our outreach. Still others will be the product of borrowers who bought homes well beyond what they could afford and so would be unable to make the monthly payment even on a modified loan.
emphasis added

It is that third category that is key - that is all the homeowners far underwater who bought homes they could never really afford.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2009 09:04:00 AM

From Bloomberg: Wealthy Families Succumb to Bankruptcy as Real Estate Crashes

Wealthy individuals’ Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings jumped 73 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the National Bankruptcy Research Center, a research firm in Burlingame, California.

More individuals or families with at least $1,010,650 in secured debt and $336,900 unsecured are using Chapter 11 of the U.S. bankruptcy code typically associated with business reorganizations. Falling U.S. home prices leave them unable to refinance or sell properties when they drop below the value of the mortgage, said Chicago bankruptcy attorney Joseph Baldi.

... Wealthier people filing for bankruptcy typically have large homes, two car payments and children in private schools, said Leslie Linfield, executive director of the Institute for Financial Literacy in Portland, Maine ...

“There are a lot of people with real estate, and they can’t afford it,” said Baldi ... “They can’t make the payments, and they can’t sell the house.”
emphasis added

Overall personal bankruptcies were up 36% in Q2 2009 compared to Q2 2008 - so high end bankruptcies are increasing twice as fast as the average.

This fits with the articles yesterday on Option ARMs and Interest Only loans that were used predominantly in mid-to-high end areas.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2009 11:12:00 PM

From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: The House Trap

An analysis for The New York Times by the real estate information company First American CoreLogic shows there are 2.8 million active interest-only home loans worth a combined total of $908 billion.

The interest-only periods, which put off the principal payments for five, seven or 10 years, are now beginning to expire. In the next 12 months, $71 billion of interest-only loans will reset. The year after, another $100 billion will reset. After mid-2011, another $400 billion will reset.

There are a several fascinating anecdotes in the article, including a professor who teaches real estate finance. Here is one:

“I understand I took a risk,” said [Dean Janis, a Southern California lawyer who bought a $950,000 home in 2004] “But I did not anticipate that the real estate market would go down 30 percent.” He talked with Wells Fargo about his options, and the lender said he had none.

IOs. Another wonderful affordability product.

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2009 10:22:00 PM

HUD has a great tool to track FHA lender performance: Neighborhood Watch Early Warning System (ht TL)

Although the overall FHA default rate is 4.63%, the following lenders had 2 year default rates of 15% or more (only lenders with 100+ originations included). (Added: these are the two year default rates).

There are ten lenders with "perfect" records (100% default), but they only have one or two originations each.

And the winner is Mortgage Depot Inc. with a 48.65% default rate!

Note that Countrywide Home Loans Inc. is not Countrywide Bank FSB.

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header to sore