by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2009 10:00:00 AM

Just using Sacramento as an example ... I wish the NAR broke out the data like this!

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® is now breaking out monthly resales by equity sales (normal resales), and distressed sales (Short sales and REO sales). Here is the July data.

They started breaking out REO sales last year, but this is only the second monthly report with short sales. Over two thirds of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales in July.

Total sales in July were off 7% compared to July 2008; the second month in a row with declining YoY sales.

The second graph breaks out sales by financing type for each July since 2002. (July 2004 was missing, June was used).

This shows the significant shift to FHA loans and cash buyers (usually investors). Speculators used conventional loans during the bubble, but now cash flow investors are mostly buying with cash.

This suggests most of the activity in distressed bubble areas like Sacramento is first-time home buyers using government-insured FHA loans (and taking advantage of the tax credits), and investors paying cash.

Investors and first-time home buyers will be buying mostly in the low-to-mid priced areas. Inventories are down in the low priced areas, but with 67% distressed sales, there will be few move-up buyers for the higher priced areas.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2009 08:30:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports:

The ... total June exports of $125.8 billion and imports of $152.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $27.0 billion, up from $26.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $2.4 billon more than May exports of $123.4 billion. June imports were $3.5 billion more than May imports of $149.3 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2009.

Imports were up in June, mostly because of a spike in oil prices. Exports also increased in June. On a year-over-year basis, exports are off 22% and imports are off 31%.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Import oil prices increased to $59.17 in June - up about 50% from the prices in February - and the fourth monthly increase in a row. Import oil prices will rise further for July and August.

It appears the cliff diving for U.S. trade might be over - especially for U.S. exports.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2009 11:48:00 PM

From the WSJ: Feeling Roomy, J.P. Morgan Shops Its Space (ht BR)

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is marketing 23 office properties ... with a combined 7.1 million square feet of space, includes four notable towers: One Chase Manhattan Plaza, near Wall Street; Four New York Plaza, also in the Financial District; the former headquarters of Washington Mutual in a downtown Seattle skyscraper that also houses the city's art museum; and a landmarked 1929 Art Deco building in Houston, the former headquarters of Texas Commerce Bank.

The portfolio is believed to be the largest single portfolio of office properties to hit the market this year and could raise more than $1 billion.

JPMorgan acquired most of this office space as part of recent acquisitions.

And a great quote:

"Vacant space right now is not ideal," said David Aubuchon, an analyst with Robert W. Baird & Co. ...

No kidding! Not in a period with rapidly rising office vacancy rates.

Note: Aubuchon is comparing to a few years ago when vacant space was considered valuable by some CRE investors under the assumption that rents would increase sharply.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2009 10:32:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Blackstone, U.S. Bancorp, Ford May Bid for Ailing Guaranty Bank

Blackstone Group LP, Gerald Ford’s Flexpoint and U.S. Bancorp are considering bids for assets of Guaranty Financial Group Inc., the Texas lender that said last month it will probably fail, people familiar with the situation said.
...
Guaranty, whose backers include billionaire Carl Icahn and Omni Hotels owner Robert Rowling, would be the biggest bank to collapse this year and the largest failure since the seizure last September of Washington Mutual Inc.

Soon.

And on Colonial Bank from The Birmingham News: Alabama State Banking Board meets; can't say if Colonial Bank a topic

A meeting of the Alabama State Banking Board that was to be held Wednesday regarding the future of Montgomery-based Colonial BancGroup has been canceled.

The board met on Monday, said Elizabeth Bressler, general counsel for the Alabama State Banking Department. Under Alabama law, she said she could not comment on what happened at that meeting or whether it involved Colonial.

Guaranty, with over $14 billion in assets, will probably not be the largest bank to fail for very long. Colonial had over $26 billion in assets according to their most recent filing.

Corus only has about $7.6 billion in assets.

by Calculated Risk on 8/11/2009 07:23:00 PM

From ForeclosureRadar: Record Number of Foreclosures Scheduled For Sale

[F]oreclosure stats were mixed, with Notice of Default filings flat, Notice of Trustee Sale filings rising by 31.6 percent and foreclosure sales dropping 22.7 percent. The number of properties scheduled for foreclosure sale – new Notices of Trustee Sale minus those sales that have cancelled or sold – rose to a record level ...

Foreclosures scheduled for sale rose to 124,874, a 10.4 percent increase from the prior month, and a 93.3 percent increase year-over-year from July 2008. The year-over-year increase is significant given that foreclosure sales in July 2008 set a record that has not again been reached. The increase appears to be primarily due to the fact that lenders are willingly postponing foreclosure sales.
...
Political pressure, financial incentives and the postponement of sales awaiting the completion of loan modification trial periods are likely reasons for the delays. The vast majority of foreclosures, 72 percent, are postponing either due to lenders request, or mutual agreement between the lender and borrower.

The average California foreclosure has a total loan balance of $425,134 on a home that is now worth $236,739.

Whether or not there is a flood of foreclosures soon appears to depend on the loan mods. Notice that foreclosures remain pending during the loan mod trial period - so it is possible that the lenders will start cancelling many of these 'Notices of Trustee Sale' soon if the mods are successful.