by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2009 04:44:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Banks Urged to Consider Higher Home-Equity Reserves (ht Brian)

U.S. banks may need to boost reserves for potential losses on home-equity loans under guidance issued by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. as property prices slump from their peak in 2006.

The regulator, in a letter today to banks and examiners, urged lenders to consider issues such as whether borrowers’ total housing debt exceeds the value of their properties and whether homeowners’ first mortgages have been reworked when determining allowances for losses on the debt.
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“Failing to properly consider the current effect of more senior liens on the collectibility of an institution’s existing junior lien loans is an inappropriate application” of accounting principles, the FDIC said in the letter.
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In its letter, the FDIC said “the failure to timely recognize estimated credit losses could delay appropriate loss mitigation activity, such as restructuring junior lien loans to more affordable payments or reducing principal on such loans to facilitate refinancings.”

From the FDIC: Allowances for Loan and Lease Losses in the Current Economic Environment: Loans Secured by Junior Liens on 1-4 Family Residential Properties

The need to consider all significant factors that affect the collectibility of loans is especially important for loans secured by junior liens on 1-4 family residential properties, both closed-end and open-end, in areas where there have been declines in the value of such properties. ...

[D]elaying the recognition of estimated credit losses on junior lien loans secured by 1-4 family residential properties by failing to properly consider the current effect of more senior liens on the collectibility of an institution's existing junior lien loans is an inappropriate application of GAAP. Additional supervisory action may also be warranted based on the magnitude of the deficiencies in this aspect of the institution's [allowance for loan and lease losses] ALLL process. Furthermore, the failure to timely recognize estimated credit losses could delay appropriate loss mitigation activity, such as restructuring junior lien loans to more affordable payments or reducing principal on such loans to facilitate refinancings. Examiners will continue to evaluate the effectiveness of an institution's loss mitigation strategies for loans as part of their assessment of the institution's overall financial condition.

The FDIC wouldn't release a letter unless they felt many banks were delaying the recognition of home-equity losses.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2009 04:00:00 PM

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales (seasonally adjusted annual rate) from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for July (red, light vehicle sales of 11.24 million SAAR from AutoData Corp).

This is the highest vehicle sales since September 2008 (12.5 million SAAR).

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Although sales were boosted by the "Cash-for-clunkers" program, I think sales would have rebounded some anyway. If "Cash-for-clunkers" is extended, then August will probably be over 11 million SAAR too, but I'd expect sales to falter a little later in the year.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2009 03:03:00 PM

From Reuters: U.S. raids Colonial Bank office in Florida (ht Jim the Realtor)

Federal agents working with the U.S. Treasury's Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) executed search warrants at two Florida banks on Monday and Colonial Bank (CNB.N) said one of them was its office in Orlando.
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A spokeswoman with the office of the Special Inspector General for the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which buys assets from troubled financial institutions to stabilize the banking industry, would only say that its agents executed two search warrants in Florida on Monday.

Colonial is operating under a Cease & Desist order, and just Friday reported to the SEC: " ... management has concluded that there is substantial doubt about Colonial’s ability to continue as a going concern."

Colonial has about $25.5 billion in assets and would be the largest bank failure this year. No word on the purpose of the raid.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2009 01:17:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Mortgage-Bond Rally May End on Housing Reality, Barclays Says (ht James)

While an S&P/Case-Shiller index for May showed the first month-over-month price increase since 2006 and a 2 percent seasonally adjusted annualized drop, a more-accurate reading probably would have been an annualized decline of 10 percent to 15 percent, [Barclays' analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Glenn Boyd] wrote.

... seasonally adjusted home-price data has been skewed higher during the spring months of this year and last year by an “amplified” version of typical patterns, according to the analysts. More homeowners sell their properties during those months, cutting the share of foreclosed homes being offloaded at distressed prices, as new buyers focus on “desirable neighborhoods” where values hold up better, they said.
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Data reflecting a reversal of the seasonal benefit, as well as “a tide of new foreclosure sales” as a moratorium on the seizing of homes put in place by banks subsides, will lead to “renewed weakness” in the fall, they said.
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They project that U.S. home prices will fall an additional 11 percent on average before bottoming next year, bringing the total decline to 40 percent from their peak.

This is similar to the argument Mark Hanson made last week (See: Housing Bottom? No, the Mother of All Head Fakes). I think we will see further price declines in the mid-to-high end bubble areas where the prices have still been sticky.

by Calculated Risk on 8/03/2009 11:19:00 AM

From CBS MarketWatch: Ford U.S. July sales rise 2.3%

Ford Motor said Monday that U.S. July sales rose 2.3% to 165,279 vehicles, reversing nearly two years of monthly year-over-year losses.

Ford said the "Cash for Clunkers" program helped July sales (no kidding).

This is the first year-over-year increase reported by Ford since November 2007.

Notes: The auto companies compare sales to the same month of the previous year (so this is compared to July 2008). Auto sales will be released all morning, and I'll post a saesonally adjusted graph when a summary is available.